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Lance
October 27th, 2011, 7:21 AM
Source (http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/press-releases/2011-releases/world-population-7-billion.html)
Source (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/03/world-population-7-billion_n_857166.html)


Overpopulation

The population of the planet is set to hit 7 Billion at the end of this Month, on Halloween. As humanity reaches this milestone, the specter of over population, disease, and famine becomes closer to reality.


Quick Facts:


Over the next forty years, nearly all (97%) of the 2.3 billion projected increase will be in the less developed regions, with nearly half (49%) in Africa. By contrast, the populations of more developed countries will remain flat, but will age, with fewer working-age adults to support retirees living on social pensions.



The world’s population has grown slowly for most of human history. It took until 1800 for the population to hit 1 billion. However, in the past half-century, population jumped from 3 to 7 billion. In 2011, approximately 135 million people will be born and 57 million will die, a net increase of 78 million people.



Considerable uncertainty about these projections remains, Bloom writes. Depending on whether the number of births per woman continues to decline, the ranges for 2050 vary from 8.1 to 10.6 billion, and the 2100 projections vary from 6.2 to 15.8 billion.




The world's population is projected to pass 7 billion on October 31 as it heads toward 10 billion or more by the end of the century, a new U.N. report said on Tuesday. The report also predicted that the global population would be higher by mid-century than its last edition forecast two years ago, reaching 9.31 billion instead of 9.15 billion. It attributed this to fewer deaths as well as more births than it had anticipated.


The October date for reaching the 7 billion mark is based on calculations from current trends and Hania Zlotnik, head of the U.N. economic department's population division, said it should be taken "with a grain of salt."
Nevertheless, the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) announced it would start a seven-day countdown on October 24 that would include a series of events. The world reached 6 billion people in 1998 and was 6.89 on July 1.


The report, "2010 Revision of World Population Prospects," projected there would be 10.1 billion people on the planet by 2100, the first time it has looked that far ahead. But it said that if global fertility was just half a child more per woman than it expected, that figure could be almost 16 billion.


U.N. officials said their figures were based on the assumption that fertility would taper off during the century.

But Zlotnik told a news conference, "Stabilization of the population doesn't seem to us as very probable at this moment."


Nations face a delicate balance between high fertility and booming populations, which strain food and other resources, and low fertility, which leads to aging populations and stress on social services, as some European states are already finding.


"All countries are going to age if their populations are not to explode even more than they are exploding now," Zlotnik said.


Another U.N. official, Gerhard Heilig, told the news conference that China's population, currently about 1.34 billion, would drop back below 1 billion by 2100. Russia's population would fall from 143 million now to 126 million by 2050 and 111 million in 2100, he said.
But UNFPA chief Babatunde Osotimehin said the latest global figures "underscore the urgent need to provide safe and effective family planning to the 215 million women who lack it," a point echoed by pro-birth control advocacy groups.


Suzanne Ehlers, president of Washington-based Population Action International, called the new projections "a wake-up call for governments to fulfill the global demand for contraception."



Overpopulation is going to become the single biggest threat to continued security in the coming years, and we (the West) really haven't prepared for it as other countries have, like China. The advocation of contraceptives, especially in developing countries, would go a long way to stymie Overpopulation concerns as well as help combat the growing AIDS epidemic, another matter entirely. Or, should a similar "1 Child" law be considered in other countries? Should the problem spiral out of control, into a "Children of Men" sort of dystopian world, what sort of harsher methods would await us when we lose control?

Discuss. Don't argue, discuss.

Abnegation
October 27th, 2011, 7:37 AM
How do they even manage to get these figures? But partial reasoning for this happen simply relates to the fact we have a good health system compared to many years ago. Not to mention it's always increasing in efficiency. There also hasn't been any wars or major plagues in the past 60 or 70 years, despite the fact that poverty still remains. However the biggest issue in rising population is due to the situation in Africa who make up a large percentage of the world population, as it is rapidly growing. The fertility rate is highest in Africa, as well as certain places in Asia with America catching up. I would like to see more strict precautions taken into account for countries with a high fertility rate as well as more information given to younger people about sex and pregnancy. The reason I say that is due to the fact that unplanned pregnancy is quite high in teens and people in their early 20's.

So I do think there needs to be more strict legislation to be taken in. The only way I think that the world could turn into a Dystopia would be if poverty were to really spread across the world a lot more, in that way I think fertility rates would increase and we'd find a Children of Men situation.

Esper
October 27th, 2011, 9:18 AM
Quick Facts:


Over the next forty years, nearly all (97%) of the 2.3 billion projected increase will be in the less developed regions, with nearly half (49%) in Africa. By contrast, the populations of more developed countries will remain flat, but will age, with fewer working-age adults to support retirees living on social pensions.



Clearly the solution is to allow these younger people in developing countries to come to the developed countries to help balance out the age distribution among population and ensure there are people to take care of the elderly and generally keep the economies going.

Of course I don't expect this to happen. In Japan, for instance, where this problem of an aging population has been known and talked about for a long time, there are only very, very slow changes to how the country allows immigrants residence in the country even when immigration would be one important piece of a quicker, more permanent solution.

How do they even manage to get these figures? But partial reasoning for this happen simply relates to the fact we have a good health system compared to many years ago. Not to mention it's always increasing in efficiency. There also hasn't been any wars or major plagues in the past 60 or 70 years, despite the fact that poverty still remains. However the biggest issue in rising population is due to the situation in Africa who make up a large percentage of the world population, as it is rapidly growing. The fertility rate is highest in Africa, as well as certain places in Asia with America catching up. I would like to see more strict precautions taken into account for countries with a high fertility rate as well as more information given to younger people about sex and pregnancy. The reason I say that is due to the fact that unplanned pregnancy is quite high in teens and people in their early 20's.
Particularly in Africa where not only is there a lack of proper sex education/knowledge in many places, but active opposition to even the use of birth control. Seriously, the inability (through lack of education or even misinformation) to plan when/how many children a woman has in her lifetime is one of the biggest problems contributing to poverty

Lance
October 27th, 2011, 7:24 PM
Particularly in Africa where not only is there a lack of proper sex education/knowledge in many places, but active opposition to even the use of birth control. Seriously, the inability (through lack of education or even misinformation) to plan when/how many children a woman has in her lifetime is one of the biggest problems contributing to poverty

The lack of readily-available contraceptives is really the main problem. Effective birth control would do wonders in Africa, and even here in the US. Maybe if the main aide agencies and missions would drop the religeous overtones, that would improve.

FreakyLocz14
October 27th, 2011, 7:57 PM
Ther really is nothing we can do about this. I think as the baby boomers die off, we might see somewhat of a drop here in the States. I'm opposed to a One Child law for obvious reasons.

Shining Raichu
October 27th, 2011, 8:19 PM
Overpopulation scares the crap out of me. Seriously, it terrifies me beyond everything.

I think if everybody just took a break from breeding for five years - buy more condoms, stimulate the economy - while we wait for a significant number of people to die off, then began again, it would do the world wonders. Unfortunately nobody will listen to this because everybody just lurrrves babies.

Bluerang1
October 28th, 2011, 2:33 PM
Africa is a continent not a country, be specific please. I take offence.

And way to go earth, getting bigger. Let's not over populize D=

Kanzler
October 28th, 2011, 4:07 PM
Nobody said Africa was a country. And while contraceptives would be a great response to the population boom in Africa, what these countries really need is industrialization. If they get their populations to work off the farm, there wouldn't be such an incentive to have children. Industrialization, urbanization, cost of living going up will make having lots of babies less attractive.

parallelzero
October 28th, 2011, 4:45 PM
Okay guys, time to start building floating cities out in the middle of the ocean! You never know, that could be a solution. Crazier government decisions have been made...

I'm honestly not too concerned about overpopulation in general, the main problem comes with all of these people moving into the cities when there's plenty of good living places elsewhere (overcrowding). Looking at Toronto, Ontario as a place that's close to home for me, that city is constantly expanding too accommodate the growing population (sometimes not fast enough), and I'm fairly certain it grows so rapidly due to immigration. I've lived in the country most of my life, and saw next to no immigrants. However, the second I moved to Ottawa, or when I visit Toronto, you notice the sheer number of them almost immediately. While I don't think it's right to say "we need to stop accepting immigrants into our country", I do think we need to take some steps to create some sort of equal distribution. I understand that jobs and stuff are in the city, but other areas can grow to accommodate the needs when it's needed.

In regards to overpopulation as a whole, like Freaky said, there isn't a whole lot you can do. People are born, people die, as humans we can only place so many limits on nature's way without stepping into immoral territory.

Blue
October 28th, 2011, 5:12 PM
It's truely amazing, I wonder what it would feel like giving birth to the 7 billionth baby? It's crazy the way the number is constantly increasing, if it keeps going the way it's going by 2300 it's going to be 25 billion+ what about resources etc...

Bluerang1
October 28th, 2011, 6:15 PM
Nobody said Africa was a country. And while contraceptives would be a great response to the population boom in Africa, what these countries really need is industrialization. If they get their populations to work off the farm, there wouldn't be such an incentive to have children. Industrialization, urbanization, cost of living going up will make having lots of babies less attractive.

Again, generalization of the whole continent. There are countries in the continent which are well developed, all of them are but they have their rural areas. Some cities already take this incentive so please stop pinning overpopulation on one area.

littlebrother
October 28th, 2011, 6:49 PM
To be honest, I feel as if half of the area that is claimed as a country in Africa should be disowned and left to run their course. What's the point in living in places that are just pure desert, let alone claiming to own them? It just makes the poverty and population problem all the worse.

donavannj
October 28th, 2011, 7:10 PM
To be honest, I feel as if half of the area that is claimed as a country in Africa should be disowned and left to run their course. What's the point in living in places that are just pure desert, let alone claiming to own them? It just makes the poverty and population problem all the worse.

The poverty and population problems are predominantly in the countries south of the Sahara. :\ The Sahara itself, away from coastal areas and rivers, is very sparsely populated.


I think, if we as a species are smart about it, we could reasonably fit 8 billion more of us to be well fed, though that would mean growing many vegetables hydroponically in towers and an expansion to the population of this scale could result in millions more species dying off (which is not desirable at all).

Alley Cat
October 28th, 2011, 8:55 PM
I wouldn't say the solution is in producing more food. We have so much food buried in the cities of our countries(think of everything[food] you've thrown away times billions). A better solution would be managing our resources better, not producing more of them.

donavannj
October 28th, 2011, 9:24 PM
I wouldn't say the solution is in producing more food. We have so much food buried in the cities of our countries(think of everything[food] you've thrown away times billions). A better solution would be managing our resources better, not producing more of them.

Well, yeah, but we would eventually need more food if we were to feasibly have another 4 billion people inhabit this earth. All this food waste is because food is treated as a commodity, not a necessity.

Mario The World Champion
October 28th, 2011, 9:34 PM
Wasn't "Children of Men" about infertility and the collapse of society because of it, not because of overpopulation?

I know this is a bit off-topic, but will all the media outlets find out who delivered the 7th billion person in the world and swamp the poor woman? Or is that irrelevant because with the 7th billion person, the search for how to make better use of our dwindling resources will come into play?

Alley Cat
October 28th, 2011, 10:45 PM
The way I see it, we can have as much food as we want. More food is going to equal more waste. It won't beat the cycle, just up the numbers. More people fed, more food wasted, more people hungry. Just more. Nothing solved. They would have to manage their food better to get it to those in need. Just because there is more food, doesn't mean that it will get to those in poverty. Because it won't, unless we put it there. That is, unless we wiped out practically everything for human development, which wouldn't be much a feasible option. Just like you said, people need to learn that food isn't such a commodity, but a necessity. But... people earn their money and they buy the food, they get to do what they want with it right?

I think it would be rather hard to locate the specific 7 billionth baby, and not to mention the fact that multiple people could be born at the same instance, just fractions of seconds apart. I wouldn't want to be the guy to crunch all those numbers.

Now... the issue on not having enough space for everyone could be solved by... going into space. If/when we find a habitable planet, then we could just as easily move thereand screw it up. In a last resort, I'm sure we'd be able to manufacture some sort of bio-dome that would create suitable conditions. Would space expansion be the solution/next step? Or am I the only one who thinks this.

FreakyLocz14
October 29th, 2011, 9:28 AM
I'm not sure that industrialization would be a solution.

Didn't the population explode after the Industrial Revolution started?

Lance
October 29th, 2011, 10:24 AM
I'm not sure that industrialization would be a solution.

Didn't the population explode after the Industrial Revolution started?

It did - the increased standard of living that resulted from the Industrial Revolution helped the population boom of the 19th Century. But leaving them in dirt poor, 3rd world poverty won't help either.

FreakyLocz14
October 29th, 2011, 10:59 AM
It did - the increased standard of living that resulted from the Industrial Revolution helped the population boom of the 19th Century. But leaving them in dirt poor, 3rd world poverty won't help either.

The only way to shrink the world population is to go back to times before industrialization.

That obviously won't happen, though.

Esper
October 29th, 2011, 11:17 AM
The idea that we can eventually go into space/go to another planet to take care of our population problem is such a pie in the sky idea. We only made it to the moon in half a decade of space flight and nowhere else in the solar system is particularly suited for human life. That would take a lot of planning, like we should be starting that yesterday, in order to make it feasible. But really, we should be better about using the resources we do have, like making sure that everywhere in the world you go there are the right machines and infrastructure to make the best use of the land there.

And regarding something someone said about people in parts of Africa wanting children - I think part of the problem is that many women aren't able to stop having children because they don't have contraception/don't know how to use it. They end up spending all their time raising children when they could be going to school, learning things, getting themselves out of poverty, and even coming up with new ideas and solutions for dealing with whatever local problems they have.

dinosaurodon
October 30th, 2011, 5:22 PM
The UN predicts the 7 billionth person to be born in Uttar Pradesh, India although there is no possible way to know :/

Blue
October 30th, 2011, 5:39 PM
It's like finding a needle in a hay stack... it's hard to predict, so this time tomorrow our population will be 7 billion eh!

Mr. X
November 2nd, 2011, 4:47 AM
The only way to shrink the world population is to go back to times before industrialization.

That obviously won't happen, though.

Not really.

Widespread enforcement of 1 child policies will work. By enforcement, I mean having tubes tied and whatever the male equivalent is.

Exceptions to be had for twins/triplets/whatever. I guess it would be single pregnancy instead of 1 child though.

That said, the population was increasing before industrialization. While it caused a massive jump in growth rates, the population was still increasing before it happened. We'd still have the same issues even if industrialization never happened.

Dawg 2005
November 11th, 2011, 12:45 PM
Oh, population, you so crazy. There's not really much anyone can do about it, either. I believe that one of the only ways that society will be able to keep up with the population is to utilize our resources differently, similar to industrialization.

I wouldn't question "how to stop overpopulation," but rather "how to cope with overpopulation." In a few hundred years, that's going to be fun for everyone (or at this rate, in ten years :P).

Mr. Tommy
November 18th, 2011, 9:09 PM
Well, it's not a big surprise anymore for the population to reach 7 Billion this year. In fact, the 7 Billionth baby was born here in the Philippines, particularly in Manila. Why did I say it's not a big surprise anymore? Because a lot of people doesn't know how to plan their family. They don't know family planning or they don't do family planning. And the worst is that powerful and wealthy religious institutions opposes modern family planning methods, one of them is the Roman Catholic church (RCc). Here in the Philippines, the women are struggling for the Reproductive Health (RH) Bill but the RCc opposes this. For me, we can solve this overpopulation problem if and only if we know how to plan our family.

Lance
December 5th, 2011, 8:35 PM
Well, it's not a big surprise anymore for the population to reach 7 Billion this year. In fact, the 7 Billionth baby was born here in the Philippines, particularly in Manila. Why did I say it's not a big surprise anymore? Because a lot of people doesn't know how to plan their family. They don't know family planning or they don't do family planning. And the worst is that powerful and wealthy religious institutions opposes modern family planning methods, one of them is the Roman Catholic church (RCc). Here in the Philippines, the women are struggling for the Reproductive Health (RH) Bill but the RCc opposes this. For me, we can solve this overpopulation problem if and only if we know how to plan our family.

Comprehensive family planning, as well as an overall education boost (Not just sexual education, education in general) would pretty much fix the problem. It fixes a lot of problems, actually.