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Old November 4th, 2012 (10:49 PM). Edited November 4th, 2012 by FreakyLocz14.
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FreakyLocz14 FreakyLocz14 is offline
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The states of Colorado and New Mexico aren't as blue as they seem. Most polling has excluded third party candidates, which is a fatal error. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson gets double digits in his home state of New Mexico when he is included, and he is polling at 5% in Colorado. His presence is more to Obama's detriment than Romney's, considering that the presence of Colorado's pro-pot initiative is also helping Gary Johnson.

Low turnout in general will hurt Obama. The strong performance of Johnson tells us that those who choose to stay home are likely those who are unhappy with President Obama, but are also not happy with Mitt Romney, and see voting for a third party candidate as a waste. Others who choose to stay home will also likely be somewhat fine with Obama, but no enthusiastic enough about him to wait in long lines. Mitt Romney has more enthusiasm, but that isn't everything.

Low turnout in general is bad for Democrats, but good for Republicans. That's because there are statistically slightly more Democrats than there are Republicans, but Republicans tend to be more principled than Democrats, so are more enthusiastic about voting than Democrats are.
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