The American Politics Discussion Thread
View Single Post
November 4th, 2012 (11:31 PM).
Grass dinosaur extraordinaire
In New Mexico, the RCP average reads Obama 51, Romney 41, 8 Others. So Gary would have to almost double his projected results and get all those votes off Obama for Romney to have a chance.
Colorado is a Obama-leaning tossup (Obama +0.6 -not what you'd call a "blue state"), and, according to RCP, the "Others" option is polling at 4.2 so there you have Johnson.
And all the current polls already factor in the probability of the person showing up to vote- that's why in "registered voters" polls, Obama has a +4/+5 extra lead compared to the "likely voters" polls. Which he is also leading. Romney needs all the polls in the country to have consistently underestimated him (or overestimated Obama) to win.
You got lost, lost through the night
It's no loss, you'll be alright
Tell me you'll feel better
When you're sleeping through the day
And I'll tell you how you missed it
When you wake
Formerly a super mod
Joined Mar 2007
Also Known As:
View Public Profile
Send a private message to Ivysaur
Find all posts by Ivysaur
Find threads started by Ivysaur
Ignore Posts by Ivysaur