View Single Post
Old November 4th, 2012 (11:31 PM).
Ivysaur's Avatar
Ivysaur Ivysaur is offline
Grass dinosaur extraordinaire
Crystal Tier
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: .es
Age: 25
Gender: Male
Posts: 19,691
Send a message via Skype™ to Ivysaur
In New Mexico, the RCP average reads Obama 51, Romney 41, 8 Others. So Gary would have to almost double his projected results and get all those votes off Obama for Romney to have a chance.

Colorado is a Obama-leaning tossup (Obama +0.6 -not what you'd call a "blue state"), and, according to RCP, the "Others" option is polling at 4.2 so there you have Johnson.

And all the current polls already factor in the probability of the person showing up to vote- that's why in "registered voters" polls, Obama has a +4/+5 extra lead compared to the "likely voters" polls. Which he is also leading. Romney needs all the polls in the country to have consistently underestimated him (or overestimated Obama) to win.
You got lost, lost through the night
It's no loss, you'll be alright
Tell me you'll feel better
When you're sleeping through the day
And I'll tell you how you missed it
When you wake

Formerly a super mod
Reply With Quote