The American Politics Discussion Thread
View Single Post
November 4th, 2012, 11:31 PM
Join Date: Mar 2007
In New Mexico, the RCP average reads Obama 51, Romney 41, 8 Others. So Gary would have to almost double his projected results and get all those votes off Obama for Romney to have a chance.
Colorado is a Obama-leaning tossup (Obama +0.6 -not what you'd call a "blue state"), and, according to RCP, the "Others" option is polling at 4.2 so there you have Johnson.
And all the current polls already factor in the probability of the person showing up to vote- that's why in "registered voters" polls, Obama has a +4/+5 extra lead compared to the "likely voters" polls. Which he is also leading. Romney needs all the polls in the country to have consistently underestimated him (or overestimated Obama) to win.
"Your loyalties... are they clear?"
"Yes sir. They are."
View Public Profile
Send a private message to Went
Find all posts by Went
Find threads started by Went
Ignore Posts by Went