The American Politics Discussion Thread
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November 4th, 2012 (11:31 PM).
You found a heart!
In New Mexico, the RCP average reads Obama 51, Romney 41, 8 Others. So Gary would have to almost double his projected results and get all those votes off Obama for Romney to have a chance.
Colorado is a Obama-leaning tossup (Obama +0.6 -not what you'd call a "blue state"), and, according to RCP, the "Others" option is polling at 4.2 so there you have Johnson.
And all the current polls already factor in the probability of the person showing up to vote- that's why in "registered voters" polls, Obama has a +4/+5 extra lead compared to the "likely voters" polls. Which he is also leading. Romney needs all the polls in the country to have consistently underestimated him (or overestimated Obama) to win.
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