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Old November 23rd, 2012, 01:19 PM
G-Money's Avatar
G-Money
Polychromatic Iridescence
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Boston
Age: 21
Gender: Male
Nature: Jolly
Hope you guys all had a good Thanksgiving, SHC!

Thanks to Thanksgiving, I got a bit of time to hunt, and now I'm up to 4748 Eevee and 13047 Johto starters.

I was wondering about luck and was trying to see if there's a way to tell whether the shiny hunting gods hate me or not, and I tried to come up with something to measure how lucky/unlucky someone is at shiny hunting. Here's what I came up with:



What's more fun than unnecessarily complex formulas?

(Feel free to skip to the spoiler tag if you don't want to hear me rambling about numbers. )

Here, EPS means Encounters per Shiny and xEPS means expected Encounters per Shiny. For hunting in grass without a shiny charm, xEPS is pretty much always going to 8192, and EPS is going to be however many Pokemon you have to encounter on average in order to see a shiny. For example, if I found 10 shinies in 10,000 encounters, my EPS would be 1,000 (you can think of it as total Pokemon seen divided by the number of shinies you've found).

There are some neat things about this:
  • If your number is 0, your luck is completely neutral.
  • If your number is positive, shinies love you!
  • If your number is negative, shinies hide from you and you need some more luck buckets! :D
  • The highest number you can get is essentially 1 (technically 0.99987792968, but that's close enough, "lol"), which would mean that every single Pokemon you find is shiny. The closer you are to 1, the luckier you are!
  • There's no limit to how low your luck number could be, so you could theoretically have luck in the negative millions.
  • If you don't have any shinies, your luck is negative infinity! You have not yet enjoyed the thrill of a successful hunt, and every shiny hunter deserves to find a shiny at least some of the time!

Now this only works for hunts where you've counted every Pokemon encountered, and you can't count shinies you didn't hunt for because you wouldn't have an accurate number. You also need to make sure you include the hunts that haven't shined yet, since you get negative luck for not getting shinies.

I've counted 6 of my successful shiny hunts:

4196 for Elgyem
610 for Litwick
2559 for Abra
1000 for Spheal
5977 for Spiritomb
4188 for Druddigon

All of those numbers are less than 8192, so you would think that I have incredible luck, right? Well, if you include my hunts that are still ongoing, I've had an additional 37,986 encounters without another shiny, so my total EPS is 56516/6 = 9419.333.

Putting that into the Luck Equation gives me L = 1 - (9419.333/8192), which comes out to -0.150. So my luck is bad, but it's not all that far from being average.

Now for those of you who hunt with the Masuda Method or Shiny Charm, things get a lot more complicated:



Here,

ES% is the percentage of your shinies that you found through random encounters, soft resetting, and other 1/8192 events like fishing.
M4S% is the percentage of your shinies that you found through MMing in GenIV.
M5S% is the percentage of your shinies that you found through MMing in GenV.
SCES% is the percentage of your shinies that you found while hunting with the Shiny Charm in BW2, and
SCM5S% is the percentage of your shinies that you found through MMing in BW2 with the Shiny Charm.

EEPS is your EPS for encountered (or SRed) shinies, M4EPS is your EPS for GenIV MMing, etc.

This is really the same thing that I posted above, but it goes into detail in order to account for the variations between different xEPSes. The Masuda Method in GenIV gives you a shiny every 2048 eggs, so we have to separate MM shinies from random encounter/SR shinies. The percentage things are used to weigh the different factors proportionately; if you have 100 SR shinies but only 3 MM shinies, your fraction whose xEPS is 8192 should be 100/103 times greater than fraction with 2048 as its denominator. I technically used this formula too, but my Masuda% and Shiny Charm% were both 0 and my Encounter% was 100%, so the final ended up just needing my encountering numbers.

I wouldn't count all eggs hatched (since we're not counting randomly-hatched shinies), but whenever you hatch eggs with the intention of getting a shiny, you should probably count those eggs. Of course, this is all just for fun, so it's totally up to you.

If you want to find out a rough estimate on how lucky you are, feel free to use the formulas or send me a list of your shinies and how many encounters you spent on each one (and your encounters for unfinished hunts, too)!

Spoiler:
Quote:
Originally Posted by iZTwi View Post
Shiny Marowak
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yami_Zidane View Post
shiny Gurdurr
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chr. Draco View Post
I guess is the first legend to be posted in the club that can be found in black2/white2.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chr. Draco View Post
the next regi
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spritingyoshi22 View Post
Shiny Bibarel
Quote:
Originally Posted by Le Krome View Post
shiny Cyndaquil!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Le Krome View Post
Wow! Another one already
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chr. Draco View Post
Now my update and again caught in a premier ball
Quote:
Originally Posted by Le Krome View Post
another shiny
Quote:
Originally Posted by GolurkIsDaBomb View Post
Spoiler:
A shiny watchog!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chr. Draco View Post
Now, time for an update, yes another one; this time it was in black at the Trial Chamber and again I used a premier ball, just that this time I caught it at full hp around the 3rd or 4th premier ball
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lunafloon View Post
Ahhh, I did it! Shiny Latias is mine!!! <3
Quote:
Originally Posted by NightOfRemorse View Post
I know I hardly post here anymore, I give you all permission to smack me across the face with a shiny Magikarp I come with a new shiny!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kirozane View Post
shiny roselia
Quote:
Originally Posted by rager3 View Post
Big Update GUYS!!!!!


Woah, congrats on all those shinies! We've had a great month with all those shinies, haha.

Way to go, Chr. Draco, on getting 4!! I'm sure those are way over the weight limit for the monthly quest!

Le Krome seems to be on a roll too, with 3 just this month!!

Lunafloon, I noticed from your sig that you have a lot of yellow shinies, "lol." You might want to eventually go for all shinies of the same color, since you already have a bunch!

*throws a non-shiny Magikarp at NightOfRemorse to keep the shiny ones for himself*


Spoiler:
Quote:
Originally Posted by imevil View Post
This club seems awesome, I've caught a shiny Zubat, Pidgeyotto and Zigzagoon. No to many but it was cool.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lifesolstice View Post
Can I join, please! I love shiny hunting. I have a couple shinies, too! (:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frenchy-Arcanine View Post
Hey guys, I would like to join the club. :3

As you can see on my signature, I have 16 shinies and I only use 1/8192 method.
I hunt shinies since 1 year and 1 month, approximately.
I try to hunt regularly, but now it's hard, because of school. And my examins who arrived so quickly

Actually, I am hunting on the road 217, on Platinium, at night. With delibird's herd.
I also hunt Volbeat and Illumise on BW, 100% rate. But I saw 15 000 Volbeat and 15 000 Illumise so this hunt is in break.

I have a Youtube channel, where I do videos of my shines, but it is in french. ( Is it authorized to share the link in the forum ? )

I think that's it, thanks.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Iceman3317 View Post
Hey guys,new here. This seems intersting. Right now the shinies I am looking for is Rufflet or Braviary,Hoothoot or Noctowl and Ho-oH at the moment.

Some of the shinies I have at the moment are the following:
x2 Shining Charizards
Tyranitar
Milotic from an event if I still have. Think I do,I'd have to check.
Cresselia
Heatran
Rapidash
Donphan
The Three Crown Beast x2 at least.
Eevee from event
Pichu from event
Cinccino
I use to have shining Hippop,but traded it. I may have more,just not coming to my head at the moment.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tabor62 View Post
Currently owned Shiny Pokemon: Charmander, Vulpix, Magikarp, Gyrados, Zangoose, Wynaut, Luxray, Garchomp, Boldore, Woobat, and Haxorus
Currently huntin for : Paras, yes it sounds weird but I just happened to have a Japanese one in my posession.


Welcome to the club!
__________________
Shiny Hunting Status:

Path of the Dragon: 2/7
Path of the Ghost: 7/18
Path of the Starter: 5/18

Last edited by G-Money; November 23rd, 2012 at 02:25 PM.
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