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  #51    
Old April 6th, 2013, 01:36 PM
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Originally Posted by BlahISuck View Post
Because the US intervening on the peninsula was half of the reason there's a North and South Korea in the first place. And Korea is in China's backyard, much like the Monroe doctrine and how Americans didn't want Europeans intervening. Furthermore, Korea borders China, and I think China would want a direct say in how things would get done, who will invest in the new regime, what they'll do about potential refugees, and so on. And Korea and Japan wouldn't want America to get too involved. While they're cautious of rising Chinese power, bringing in foreign influence has never lead to peace no matter where you are in the world (French and Spanish intervening in Italy, America in the Middle East).

So China + Korea have the most to gain. An analogy may be how the US freaked out over the Cuban missile crisis. While the US wouldn't go arming united Korea with nukes, mistrust over the going-ons in your backyard will drive the Chinese paranoid. Anyways, the US will probably allow China to decide how the occupation will be carried out. It's implied in the respect of a great power's "sovereignty" in its sphere of influence, and I don't think the US would throw that out the window.
Yes. But, again, I think that all applies to if South Korea is attacked. If they attack the US (which in all honesty, I can't imagine something NK launches not falling into the ocean XD, but still. If they do manage to), then I think the US would be entirely justified in striking back regardless of what China may want.
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  #52    
Old April 6th, 2013, 02:07 PM
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uhh what are you talking about? misinterpreted his post? How so, I just said I agreed with his point, "what would they gain"..
Well, if anything, you said that "they must have a plan we can't see yet". I said that the plan is quite visible already: looking all scary and threatening to get some negotiations going with the US and China in exchange for food and economic help. It's the only hand they can play and they are playing it, otherwise the country would fall into internal chaos.

It's not that they have a mysterious plan all this weapon shuffling is a part of, their entire plan is just shaking their fists.
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  #53    
Old April 6th, 2013, 02:09 PM
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And after they justify themselves in attacking North Korea, they'll justify their continued presence on the peninsula, maybe taking a greater role in the occupation. Countries that want to have a say want to fight. The Soviet Union didn't have to invade northern China during the end of WWII, but they did so they hoped to support Kim Il Sung and maybe turn Hokkaido into a communist republic. They got the first of their two goals and look at where things are now. I'm afraid of a US invasion because it'll only justify them being even more involved, making there even more conflict.

One thing that may make this outcome not-so-likely is if the US hands over occupation to China + Korea, or perhaps Korea with China and the US "observing". That might work if public opinion goes against occupation, which I hope it will (and it'll probably go against public opinion in China and Korea anyways, maybe Japan?).
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  #54    
Old April 6th, 2013, 02:40 PM
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Well, if anything, you said that "they must have a plan we can't see yet". I said that the plan is quite visible already: looking all scary and threatening to get some negotiations going with the US and China in exchange for food and economic help. It's the only hand they can play and they are playing it, otherwise the country would fall into internal chaos.

It's not that they have a mysterious plan all this weapon shuffling is a part of, their entire plan is just shaking their fists.
All the binoculars pictures seem more like bird watching than scary and threatening to me XD
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  #55    
Old April 6th, 2013, 03:16 PM
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It's not that they have a mysterious plan all this weapon shuffling is a part of, their entire plan is just shaking their fists.
I think they do have a real plan, that what my statement was about when i said "They have a plan". I really believe they have a logical reason behind their actions as of late. I dont see this being just a way to prove they are strong and their leader is strong, i think that is nonsense and there are better ways of going about it.
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  #56    
Old April 6th, 2013, 03:23 PM
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Yes. But, again, I think that all applies to if South Korea is attacked. If they attack the US (which in all honesty, I can't imagine something NK launches not falling into the ocean XD, but still. If they do manage to), then I think the US would be entirely justified in striking back regardless of what China may want.
And thats the problem with international politics - No matter how justified retaliation may be, somehow your always going to lose face with it.

We can't forget N.Korea's treaty with China. Afterall, they might decide to take a page out of our book.

By this, I mean the US stating that they will, should Israel take actions against Iran (ie, attack them) stand by them.

The US is a paper tiger in this situiation, really. A portion of our economy is reliant on cheap Chinese labor - Should the US occupy N. Korea, I really wouldn't be surprised if China decides to limit exports.

No one really wants to admit this - While we have a better military then China, but they have our economy by the balls. Because of this, China's defense of N. Korea wouldn't have to be military action - It could be economic action.
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  #57    
Old April 6th, 2013, 03:32 PM
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Meh, China is trying to reduce dependency on its exports and develop an internal market for its goods. The US economy is actually the probably only one economy that could survive without any trade - exactly what North Korea intended to do. I looked at the numbers comparing the size of total annual trade (import+export) with national GDP. For the US, the ratio is 25%, whereas it is 50% for China. The only other countries with a ratio <30% are poor third-world countries like Ethiopia and Pakistan that would probably do better with an export-driven economy.

If push comes to shove, the Chinese rely more on the US than vice versa in terms of trade. I don't know how debt comes into the picture but it obviously has an effect. If China attacks, it's probably not out of respect for the alliance, but in its self-interest for security purposes.
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  #58    
Old April 6th, 2013, 04:22 PM
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If push comes to shove, the Chinese rely more on the US than vice versa in terms of trade. I don't know how debt comes into the picture but it obviously has an effect. If China attacks, it's probably not out of respect for the alliance, but in its self-interest for security purposes.
adding on to that.

My history teacher told us something about alliances in class one day: they only support them if there's a reason.

Like in WWI, the alliances were upheld because each of the countries had their own reasons for fighting.

…yeah, alliances are pointless beyond the symbolic part.
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  #59    
Old April 6th, 2013, 04:27 PM
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adding on to that.

My history teacher told us something about alliances in class one day: they only support them if there's a reason.

Like in WWI, the alliances were upheld because each of the countries had their own reasons for fighting.

…yeah, alliances are pointless beyond the symbolic part.
Well, yeah. Same with WWII.
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  #60    
Old April 6th, 2013, 05:06 PM
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With all this being said, I'd really like to see Korea unite. It would probably be my foreign-policy/diplomatic dream come true. For then you'll have three different powers in their own right: China, Korea and Japan in East Asia. I think then there would be a good guarantee of peace in the region without the United States. Which would be good for all countries - I say this even from the US perspective because you guys need defence cuts XD
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  #61    
Old April 6th, 2013, 06:23 PM
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I may be getting ahead of myself but if North Korea were to fall the nations participating in the occupation/ reconstruction will need to secure the Nukes and make sure no terrorist/ outside party gets their hands on them.

I'm hoping that we don't have a war (well technically it's on going, so I hope it doesn't go back to a battle field war). And if we do, then I hope China and (South) Korea can work together to rebuild the North (I don't want Japan to be involve in the occupation as the Koreans may feel that they're being colonized by the Japanese once more). Also one doesn't know what kind of resentment the Northerners may have due to the propaganda they've been fed with all their lives...
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  #62    
Old April 6th, 2013, 06:39 PM
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When they get their hands on a Samsung Galaxy SIII, all love for their former homeland will be lost. That's how I see it, anyways. Oh, and K-pop.
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  #63    
Old April 6th, 2013, 06:45 PM
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Now this is a huge gamble because it could cost him everything to assert his strength, assuming that's what he is trying to do in the first place.
It would cost him everything not to.
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You seem to be assuming what most are this is to portray his strength, that North Korea doesn't stand a chance, I beg to differ on both assumptions
Then you're wrong.
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but again that is my point of view on the situation.
That doesn't make you any less wrong. Even NK knows it doesn't stand a chance against the combined might of every other major world power, and its barely-capable missiles probably wouldn't make it across the pacific, and even if they did, NORAD would shoot them down before they even entered US airspace. South Korea has similar anti-weapons technology from their association with the US.
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Also even if he asserts his strength, his country will now be cut off more from the rest of the world and stricter sanctions will probably be placed and his country struggling even more to support itself, so if you ask me playing a cat and mouse game with us or anyone isn't beneficial to him or anyone else..
So he starves his people a bit more and blames the starvation on foreign powers. He knows nobody's going to do anything unless he actually sends weapons out. You don't really seem to understand how North Korea (or international policy as a whole) works.
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I fail to see how loading missiles into launchers is anything close to shouting insults..
Because it means the same (e.g., nothing). They're rattling their cage. They do this every few years.
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Thats not even a sick joke at a time like this, its playing with fire almost literally.
Having a loaded gun is a lot different than firing a loaded gun. Or in this case, pointing a loaded gun at a room full of armed police officers with their assault rifles trained on you and making empty threats at them is a lot different than firing that gun at them.
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  #64    
Old April 6th, 2013, 06:49 PM
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Well eventually this is going to get old (like it's not already) and someone is actually going to end up attacking someone one of these days to put an end to this back and forth charade.
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  #65    
Old April 6th, 2013, 06:49 PM
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Because it means the same (e.g., nothing). They're rattling their cage. They do this every few years.
Having a loaded gun is a lot different than firing a loaded gun. Or in this case, pointing a loaded gun at a room full of armed police officers with their assault rifles trained on you and making empty threats at them is a lot different than firing that gun at them.
Either way, playing with a loaded gun not the brightest of ideas
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  #66    
Old April 6th, 2013, 07:05 PM
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Either way, playing with a loaded gun not the brightest of ideas
especially with a room full of police..

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Then you're wrong.
Really? So you know for a fact that is what they are trying to achieve? He has said this? Really? I must have missed that.

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So he starves his people a bit more and blames the starvation on foreign powers. He knows nobody's going to do anything unless he actually sends weapons out. You don't really seem to understand how North Korea (or international policy as a whole) works.
I understand perfectly, I also understand its never actually gone this far. I also know even if he sends weapons out no one will still be willing to talk. I also know all this started over broken deals and a nuclear test and/or N korea wanting to launch a satellite into orbit. I also know that they didn't need to put the sanctions on them like they did. Why cant N. Korea launch a satellite into orbit? We have thousands and so do most other countries... It just seems we do our best to maintain power around the world by not letting other countries advance..
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  #67    
Old April 6th, 2013, 07:18 PM
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The Chinese love having all that American debt to play around with. Ignoring the trade agreements and such between the U.S. and China would be borderline suicidal for China. They won't give that up to appease Kim's little temper tantrum.
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Old April 6th, 2013, 07:19 PM
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So TIL that North Korea has a 200,000 strong special operations force. Think SEALS + Rangers + Delta + SAS. It's amazing because that's roughly the size of the marine corps. It's been called North Korea's asymmetric threat, cuz they'll ninja the crap out of South Korea even before war is declared XD
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  #69    
Old April 6th, 2013, 07:20 PM
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If push comes to shove, the Chinese rely more on the US than vice versa in terms of trade. I don't know how debt comes into the picture but it obviously has an effect. If China attacks, it's probably not out of respect for the alliance, but in its self-interest for security purposes.
War screws everyone - But still, with the fragility of our economy we would take a bigger hit.

A lot of our tech - Smartphones, computer components, other stuff - is constructed in China btw. If China does cut trade, some aspects of our economy will remain untouched, some will take a small hit, and some will be kicked right in the balls.

The tech industry would take the hardest hit I think. While computer assembly occurs in the US, a good number of the parts are made in China.

While the industry can simply buy from other companies that don't make their stuff in China it would be a rather limited, possiably more expensive, choice of selections they would have. Even then, the increased demand could easily require the companies to expand, build more factories - Good for the economy of whatever nation they are in yes, but this doesn't happen overnight.

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With all this being said, I'd really like to see Korea unite. It would probably be my foreign-policy/diplomatic dream come true. For then you'll have three different powers in their own right: China, Korea and Japan in East Asia. I think then there would be a good guarantee of peace in the region without the United States. Which would be good for all countries - I say this even from the US perspective because you guys need defence cuts XD
If it wasn't for Cold War with the Soviet Union then Korea would have already unified. The split between North and South was like Germany. It wasn't supposed to last as long as it did, and in Korea's case, has. From another angle, China also prevented unification when they got involved in the Korean War. Frankly, as long as the distrust between the US and Chinese government lasts I highly doubt that unification will occur.

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Originally Posted by Magmaruby and Aquasapphire View Post
I may be getting ahead of myself but if North Korea were to fall the nations participating in the occupation/ reconstruction will need to secure the Nukes and make sure no terrorist/ outside party gets their hands on them.
If N. Korea did fall, I wouldn't be that suprised if they detonated their nukes as a final middle finger to the world.

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Either way, playing with a loaded gun not the brightest of ideas
Especially if the game your playing is Russian Roulette. Even worse is if your playing that game with a clip-fed pistol, instead of a revolver.
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  #70    
Old April 6th, 2013, 07:25 PM
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So TIL that North Korea has a 200,000 strong special operations force. Think SEALS + Rangers + Delta + SAS. It's amazing because that's roughly the size of the marine corps. It's been called North Korea's asymmetric threat, cuz they'll ninja the crap out of South Korea even before war is declared XD
They have about 180,000 according to wikipedia

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There are about 180,000 special operational forces soldiers.[3]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_K...peration_Force


Still pretty large, they also have Bio weapons, submarines, nukes, missiles, mortars, automatic weapons, rockets, grenades, 1.5 million strong active and trained military... I could go on but whats the point, everyone thinks they dont have a chance cause they have dated weapons/arsenal. I respectfully disagree look at what ordinary people(taliban) with barbaric training continue to do to our military with nails, homemade explosives, AK's and Rockets..
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Old April 6th, 2013, 07:38 PM
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A lot of our tech - Smartphones, computer components, other stuff - is constructed in China btw. If China does cut trade, some aspects of our economy will remain untouched, some will take a small hit, and some will be kicked right in the balls.
I call first world problems here. Everybody's economy would get kicked in the balls, but the US economy will be the first of the few to get back up on its feet. Sure yeah, a lot of tech production is globalized, but the US has the industrial capacity and the knowhow to do the whole supply chain domestically, even if it is more expensive. That to me is incredibly impressive - even if our Western, First-World luxuries become unprofitable to the capitalists XD.

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If it wasn't for Cold War with the Soviet Union then Korea would have already unified. The split between North and South was like Germany. It wasn't supposed to last as long as it did, and in Korea's case, has. From another angle, China also prevented unification when they got involved in the Korean War. Frankly, as long as the distrust between the US and Chinese government lasts I highly doubt that unification will occur.
Reunification could occur on Korea's terms though, and I think that would be much more favourable than if it occured in the 50's. Because otherwise, Korea would still be reliant on the United States, and there would only be a fear of the next conflict with Red China and the Soviet Union. Now that Korea is asserting itself as a dynamic new power, and as is Japan, and as is China. If Korea reunites, it will be able to quickly catch up at least to where Japan is in let's say 25 years or so - and it will be the wealthiest of the three per capita because there are less Koreans than Japanese. These three countries need each other, but to a certain extent compete with each other. Plus geographic barriers as well as cultural ones should do a lot to prevent conflict in the region.

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They have about 180,000 according to wikipedia
First of all, that's 90% of the value I cited so I don't think I deserved to get called out on inaccuracy, especially because that's value you get if you round up Also I read an article that said the SOF had increased its ranks by another 20,000 from 180,000, since whenever the source from wiki was written.
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Old April 6th, 2013, 07:38 PM
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Still pretty large, they also have Bio weapons, submarines, nukes, missiles, mortars, automatic weapons, rockets, grenades, 1.5 million strong active and trained military... I could go on but whats the point, everyone thinks they dont have a chance cause they have dated weapons/arsenal. I respectfully disagree look at what ordinary people(taliban) with barbaric training continue to do to our military with nails, homemade explosives, AK's and Rockets..
I ran into a friend at the store earlier and said pretty much the same thing. Technologically the US is superior - We can take out their central command structure, turn their air force into scrap metal, and sink whatever navy they have with no effort. But should it turn into a ground war then, as Iraq and Trashcanistan (Afghanistan) showed us, our technological superiority wouldn't mean **** and we would be in for another long ground war.

I've actually put some thought into how the Korea's could work toward unification. My idea is expansion of the DMZ in certian sections, guarded soliders from a agreed upon 3rd party. The expanded zones would be the sites of economic/cultural exchange centers, freely open to both sides.
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Old April 6th, 2013, 07:48 PM
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I ran into a friend at the store earlier and said pretty much the same thing. Technologically the US is superior - We can take out their central command structure, turn their air force into scrap metal, and sink whatever navy they have with no effort. But should it turn into a ground war then, as Iraq and Trashcanistan (Afghanistan) showed us, our technological superiority wouldn't mean **** and we would be in for another long ground war.

Yes perhaps we could, I'm not arguing that. However it wont be as easy as people make it to be and TBH can we afford to deploy our navy/army to deal with theirs, both financially and mentally. We lost alot to Iraq and Afghanistan. Can we really go through another ordeal like that. Not to mention its gonna put us farther into debt so much as other countries may not help us support an assault.

War would not be in our best interest.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_...l_and_training
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_...nd_Force#Tanks

A tank is still a tank no matter how old, it can still kill...


This is reminding me of the newest Red Dawn movie http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGoe7BdGdlg
Thats the KPA who did that.. They used a EMP... I'm not saying this will happen at all I just thought of the movie lol
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  #74    
Old April 6th, 2013, 08:01 PM
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Iraq and Afghanistan's issues were with an insurgency and guerilla warfare though. I don't know if North Korea, with its super patriarchal and control culture has it within them to turn to insurgency. You can contrast them big time to the Communist Party, who during revolution, was a radical, guerilla based, decentralized, and revolutionary (really!) force. The North Korea today is about rigidity, doctrine, and conservatism.

Actually I lie. The Soviet partisans did really well in terms of their insurgency. But this might be an unfair comparison because they had the advantage of an overstretched Wehrmacht and large Russian territory. Oh and German brutality didn't help either, with the under-supplied army diverting food supplies away from the populace. So I suppose my point still stands that an insurgency may not be viable like it was in Afghanistan and Iraq. Also the culture between China and the two Koreas hold a common heritage, and I don't know how good most North Koreans - except the most fanatical - would feel about killing their own countrymen. They are still Koreans with thousands of years of history and probably view each other as brothers and sisters, except for the ignorant South Korean youth illiterate of their culture and hooked on Western consumerism, but that's another rant XD. The terrain is hilly like Afghanistan, but Korea's a much smaller place with around the same population. Also both China and South Korea have huge populations. So a North Korean insurgency wouldn't have too many places to hide. Especially since the peasants and farmers would be liberated from starvation and inefficient farming practices.

In terms of conventional warfare with airpower + armoured vehicles + missiles + artillery, the North Koreans would probably get destroyed by South Korea/United States/China, but not before causing maybe 2 million civilian casualties due to population density and distance. Otherwise they should be defeated relatively quickly as air superiority + concentration of force + technology should destroy their command structure and their ability to call on support, making their forces combat ineffective. Like how the ground war with Iraq, if I remember correctly, lasted a couple of months.

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A tank is still a tank no matter how old and it can still kill...
I'm not too sure about this. I don't know if the North Koreans have modernized old models like how the HUMVEE was made more relevant in Iraq. But if they haven't, they're still relying on old shells and metal armour which is no match for the superdense sabot rounds and chemical armour tanks of the US and Korea are armed with. Especially if the US has Abrams in North Korea. I would kind of be excited if China joined an invasion, because that would allow them to test their newest tank model. I know it's macabre, but I really, really, want to see how it turns out in combat. There are so tank varieties in the world, but I don't think many have been battle-tested.
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Old April 6th, 2013, 08:07 PM
KingCharizard's Avatar
KingCharizard
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Join Date: Dec 2009
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In terms of conventional warfare with airpower + armoured vehicles + missiles + artillery, the North Koreans would probably get destroyed by South Korea/United States/China, but not before causing maybe 2 million civilian casualties due to population density and distance. Otherwise they should be defeated relatively quickly as air superiority + concentration of force + technology should destroy their command structure and their ability to call on support, making their forces combat ineffective. Like how the ground war with Iraq, if I remember correctly, lasted a couple of months.
Again this is all just assumptions, you dont know this for sure and wont till if/when we go to war with them. Yea it seems we would win but crazier things have happened in the world. Think back to Hannibal and Rome. He didnt really beat rome but he caused them great damage and loss of life. If rome didnt resort to cheap tatics by cutting off the carthaginians food supply hannibal might have crushed rome...

I'm just saying its possible we could lose, china could support NK and russia as well.. I wish people would stop being so arrogant, hell this country was founded by us defeating the British which no one thought we ever could..
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