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The American Politics Discussion Thread

FreakyLocz14

Conservative Patriot
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You're saying DOMA (Defense of Marriage Act) didn't try to change the definition of marriage? 'Cuz if you're arguing that "man + woman = marriage, but man + man =/= marriage" I disagree with your prescriptivist notion of marriage.

At the federal level Obama has already told his people not to defend DOMA which does have an impact on, for instance, married same-sex couples where one is a citizen of the US and one is not. And he's weighed in on the measures (or whatever they're called) in Washington and Maine.

Granted, he could be doing a lot more, but at least he's pushing in the right direction, which his political opponents are not doing.

DOMA defines marriage for federal purposes, but it actually doesn't affect whether or not a same-sex couple can get married in any give state.
 

Riku

Who cares to know, eh Bubbles?
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Anyway... there's a final independent debate to be hosted Tuesday evening in DC between the two major third party candidates, Jill Stein and Gary Johnson, on the issues of foreign policy. I highly doubt it will stick to foreign policy though, seeing as how they have some (though not all) very similar ideas. Not like it really matters, but it should be interesting to see something that doesn't involve more war.

Update: Forgot to do this a couple of days ago, but the debate between those two is actually going to be Monday, November 5, the night before the election.
 
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Keiran

[b]Rock Solid[/b]
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Has anyone heard of the felony Romney was charged with on 11/02/12? I can't find an article about it from a source that I personally trust. This is where I first heard of it, but Google isn't producing many results for actual articles. So I'm assuming it isn't really true/the whole story or just being kept quiet.
 

Mr. X

It's... kinda effective?
2,391
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http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/02/us/politics/paths-to-the-white-house.html

Anyway, the only thing I can find relates to SEC filings and his position in Bain Capital.

Edit - Violating Federal Ethics Law, because he 'supposedly' profited from the automotive bailout (To a tune of 15.3 to 113 million dollars) and hid the money in his wife's blind trust account. It's not a official charge, but it was put foward by UAW. CREW is to file a official complaint with the Office of Government Ethics in hopes of having these claims investigated.

http://www.truth-out.org/buzzflash/...20848586851&action=collapse_widget&id=6426757

Edit 2 - And somethings about him improperly training poll watchers in Wisconsin and Iowa.
 
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TRIFORCE89

Guide of Darkness
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Almost Tuesday! Regardless of the outcome, we can finally put this behind this and move on with our lives :D

On the blind trust thing... I'd have an issue if he were in a position of power at the time that happened, or if had a hand in developing or executing it (the bail-out). Then there would be a conflict of interest. Without question. Should he win, that must change and he should have an approved trust.

But, just as a citizen or an investor, I see no problem with how that went down.
 

FreakyLocz14

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The states of Colorado and New Mexico aren't as blue as they seem. Most polling has excluded third party candidates, which is a fatal error. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson gets double digits in his home state of New Mexico when he is included, and he is polling at 5% in Colorado. His presence is more to Obama's detriment than Romney's, considering that the presence of Colorado's pro-pot initiative is also helping Gary Johnson.

Low turnout in general will hurt Obama. The strong performance of Johnson tells us that those who choose to stay home are likely those who are unhappy with President Obama, but are also not happy with Mitt Romney, and see voting for a third party candidate as a waste. Others who choose to stay home will also likely be somewhat fine with Obama, but no enthusiastic enough about him to wait in long lines. Mitt Romney has more enthusiasm, but that isn't everything.

Low turnout in general is bad for Democrats, but good for Republicans. That's because there are statistically slightly more Democrats than there are Republicans, but Republicans tend to be more principled than Democrats, so are more enthusiastic about voting than Democrats are.
 
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Ivysaur

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In New Mexico, the RCP average reads Obama 51, Romney 41, 8 Others. So Gary would have to almost double his projected results and get all those votes off Obama for Romney to have a chance.

Colorado is a Obama-leaning tossup (Obama +0.6 -not what you'd call a "blue state"), and, according to RCP, the "Others" option is polling at 4.2 so there you have Johnson.

And all the current polls already factor in the probability of the person showing up to vote- that's why in "registered voters" polls, Obama has a +4/+5 extra lead compared to the "likely voters" polls. Which he is also leading. Romney needs all the polls in the country to have consistently underestimated him (or overestimated Obama) to win.
 

FreakyLocz14

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In New Mexico, the RCP average reads Obama 51, Romney 41, 8 Others. So Gary would have to almost double his projected results and get all those votes off Obama for Romney to have a chance.

Colorado is a Obama-leaning tossup (Obama +0.6 -not what you'd call a "blue state"), and, according to RCP, the "Others" option is polling at 4.2 so there you have Johnson.

And all the current polls already factor in the probability of the person showing up to vote- that's why in "registered voters" polls, Obama has a +4/+5 extra lead compared to the "likely voters" polls. Which he is also leading. Romney needs all the polls in the country to have consistently underestimated him (or overestimated Obama) to win.

"Other" is not the same as naming the third party candidates. Because these candidates will appear on the ballot, they should be included in polls. Gary Johnson has been as high as 13% in his home state when he is named.

The Green Party also has a candidate who is on the ballot in enough states to theoretically win the election, as does the Constitution Party.

Also, more people say that they're going to vote third party than actually do. They end up feeling that its not worth waiting in line to cast a purely symbolic vote.
 

Ivysaur

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The Alburquerque Journal, Public Opinion Strategies, Research & Polling, Fairbank Maslin and WeAskAmerica polls in NM specifically include Gary Johnson. All of them give Obama something close to a +10 point lead.
 

FreakyLocz14

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The Alburquerque Journal, Public Opinion Strategies, Research & Polling, Fairbank Maslin and WeAskAmerica polls in NM specifically include Gary Johnson. All of them give Obama something close to a +10 point lead.

Public Policy Polling found him at 13%. They also found that most of his support comes from would-be Obama voters. The poll is dated, but he still has a reasonable shot at a double-digit finish in New Mexico if he's getting 8% with a +/- 4% margin of error.
Public Policy Polling said:
He gets 24% of the independent vote, and a lot of his support is coming from more Democratic leaning independents.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/07/obama-lead-in-new-mexico-declining.html

Recently, CNN has Johnson polling at 5% in Ohio, and at 4% in Colorado. They also found that Johnson is taking away Democratic-leaning independents instead of Republican-leaning ones. If this is true, then Colorado looks realistic for Romney if Obama is only up by 1% when Johnson is not included.
http://newmexico.watchdog.org/16467...in-ohio-4-in-colorado-hurts-obama-more-in-co/
 
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I really worry about what will happen with the world if Mitt Romney wins the election. US-UK relations could be really damaged, Obama restored a strong relationship between us and holds many similar ideals to the current government and people.
 
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You know that there are a lot of election shenanigans when the UN sends in elections monitors.

If Obama wins this election it will be in spite of all the attempts at purging legitimate voters from the rolls, "loosing" absentee ballots, buggy software at polling places, super long lines, closing polling sites with people still in line to vote, fake robocalls with incorrect voting information (vote November 7th, y'all), intimidating billboards in poor neighborhoods telling you it's a crime to commit voter fraud, heavy-handed ID laws, extra restrictions on new voter registration, and I'm sure a bunch of other things I'm forgetting at the moment.

Dang. Republicans really meant it when they said their one goal was to see Obama be a one-term president.
 

Oryx

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I'm just glad for tomorrow to be over soon. I like politics but I prefer politics when the people that are talking about them actually care about them. Too many people that want to talk politics around election time and haven't actually done any research. >_o
 
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I'm just glad for tomorrow to be over soon. I like politics but I prefer politics when the people that are talking about them actually care about them. Too many people that want to talk politics around election time and haven't actually done any research. >_o

Ugh, my life in a nutshell right here. To be a political science student in an election year is hellish to say the least.
 

Ivysaur

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Aw. I'm actually excited and I don't know what I'll do when I'm bored at job from Thursday on when I won't have any reasons left to refresh RealClearPolitics, FiveThirtyEight and the HuffPost like a madman and have fun reading trollfights all over. At least, save for a gigantic surprise, Obama looks en route to 303 EV's, so that's something less to be worried about.
 

FreakyLocz14

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It looks like the election hangs on one thing: Ohio!

If Romney wins Ohio, then Obama's chances look dim. Let's give him the tossups where he is leading: Nevada, Colorado, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Iowa (also note that only in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan is he leading by more than the margin of error).

Romney has Indiana and Missouri solidly in his column, has a significant lead now in North Carolina, and is tied with Obama in the traditionally red state of Virginia and the swing states of New Hampshire and Florida, so we'll Virginia. See as how Obama only won these state by a slim margin due to high turnout among minorities in 2008, let's give those states to Romney this time.

This all means that if Romney wins Ohio, then Obama has to win either Virginia or Florida to win, and the latest polls out of those states show that they're true tossups, but given that they've trended Republican for the past 10 years, Obama will have a tall mountain the climb.

It all hangs on Ohio!
 
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Yeah.... the debate was well over a week and half ago, and it's political discussion, which we have this super thread for in the first place. It goes here.

Also, for the record, it's Libertarian, not Liberaltarian. XD
 

FreakyLocz14

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We're talking a lot about the Presidential race, but control of Congress will also be determined tomorrow night.

It looks like the Republicans will keep the House, but the Senate is unpredictable. While the Republicans looked set to take back the Senate a year ago, a number of gaffes by GOP Senatorial candidates has renewed hope for the Democrats. A 50-50 Senate is likely. Add the fact that Maine will likely elect a Senator who is not a Democrat or a Republican, and things get even more unpredictable.
 
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