Quick synopsis: Curious if someone can tell me odds on this story, since its pretty damn crazy.
This is probably an odd first post for someone but me and my girl were so blown away by yesterday that I was curious if anyone might be able to tell me what the (astronomical) odds of this happening are.
So yesterday, we were out and about and were at a Target. We didnt expect to see anything new, as Plasma Blast doesn't officially come out until Tuesday. But we were surprised to see this target already had all of the stuff out. Theme decks and booster packs, as well as a lot of promo packs.
So we decided to get some. We bought the remaining Plasma Blast boosters that they had (6) and then bought 2 promo packs. These promo packs included a coin, either a Krookodile Holo or a Blaziken Holo, and a single Plasma Blast booster pack.
Now, that meant a total of 8 packs. I almost originally bought one of the promos with the Krookodile, but decided I liked the Blaziken better, and since we have separate collections, I'd need one too. So this meant I actually went back and grabbed a different promo pack from the one I originally grabbed.
So we left the store with 6 Plasma Blast booster packs in their fancy packaging, and 2 Promo packs with Blaziken holos. Once in the car, we decided to open the promo packs.
This is where it gets interesting. She opened hers first and had a great pull; Genesect EX. We were pretty stoked at this point, seeing as our first pull from the set was an EX. I was jealous, and even commented by saying "Wow, let me just go open my crap pack now." Because , well odds were I wouldn't get anything good. But upon opening the pack, I find my pull to be a full art Palkia EX.
So this left us pretty darn excited, since our first 2 packs were awesome pulls. Very awesome pulls. But we decided to take the other 6 packs home and open them later.
Fast forward a few hours and we're opening our packs. The packs had been shuffled around a bit in a bag and we both just grabbed three randomly and opened one by one. I opened first. So this was my 2nd ever pack of Plasma Blast.
I pulled a Palkia EX. I lost it at this point. What are the odds of this happening? 1st pack Full Art Palkia EX. 2nd pack, Palkia EX. It was crazy in my mind.
Then she opened her pack...... Full Art Jirachi EX.
We were both stunned. First four packs, and we already have 2 full art EXs and 2 EXs. The rest of the packs were fairly uneventful.
So, anyways, I share this story not to brag at all. But just because I'm curious if I should have bought a lottery ticket yesterday instead and tried to hit that $400 million XD.
Im curious if anyone who's more knowledgable at pull rates knows what the odds of this happening are?
TL;DR We had some mindblowing pulls, and were curious on the odds.
The pull rates from the single booster blisters sold at Target and Wal-Mart are functionally random, from what I understand. There's probably a ratio used in determining how many secret rares end up in a run of the single-booster blisters, but the boosters are likely inserted into blister packs without the people working the production line actually knowing what cards are in each booster, which would mean that it's functionally random how many ultra rares and secret rares a given store will end up with.
I bought a bundle of three Gen. 4 boosters one day from a Wal-Mart (I think), and each one either had a Lv.X or a Prime in it. Pretty good purchase imo. I've actually gathered the odds of my purchases over the past year and, from my experience, there's a 1/9 chance of getting a really rare card.
What the..... Thats impossible i rarly ever get rares let alone EX'S when the arceus packs came out awile ago i got a arceus EX card i was so excited to show my freind. the next day i litterally woke up and couldnt find it so i said well i will look when i get home but little did i know my (autistic) little brother took it when i was sleeping. It wasnt till about 1 month later that he finally saw how much i missed it and told me what happened. he told me he took it and traded it for a pikachu. he said i like pikachu i was furious i said what freind has it jaden trying not to get even more angry and he said he moved. Im raging at this point and made him buy me 10 new packs they all had nothing good just some foils and commons im still mad about it but whatever but he acts like nothing happened haha i love my little bro to death but he made me the angriest i have ever been
Odds and probability can only give you an idea of expectation, they never guarantee anything. The odds of winning the lottery is something like 250,000,000 to one, basically impossible, but someone still has to win it. Some times you get a 10 week rollover when no one wins, other times 5+ people win the jackpot on the same day.
If we assume the odds of drawing a rare cars are 9 to 1 as jsziede mentioned, then the odds of getting 4 EX cards in a row as you did would be 6561 to 1. Indeed, you were very lucky
My first 4 PB packs had 2 FA cards in them, Iris and Virizion EX. My friends were very jealous.
I also pulled 2 secret rares within a week of each other when PF was in prerelease, one being Charizard from a Plasma Storm Elite Trainer Box, and the other being Garbodor from Plasma Freeze at an event.. Sometimes people get lucky, it happens.
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