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  #18226    
Old June 7th, 2011 (05:15 PM). Edited June 7th, 2011 by G-Money.
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G-Money
Polychromatic Iridescence
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Boston
Age: 21
Gender: Male
Nature: Jolly
Quote originally posted by Latios Master:
I've been hatching Litwicks using the Masuda Method almost everyday since 4/22, which has been almost 7 weeks. So far I've hatched 1,147.
The common belief is that you haven't even hit the 50th percentile yet in your Litwick hunt. However, you're going to hatch a beautiful blue-flamed sentient candle really soon. Why is that?

I've had a hypothesis for a while now that 5th gen MM odds are actually much, much better than 1/1365.3. I finally went through this whole thread and recorded how long each MM hunt took, hoping that I could finally get some evidence to back up this claim.

Although it's a small sample size, it looks like I'm on the right track. Here are all of the amounts of eggs taken to find a shiny via the Masuda Method mentioned in this thread:

36
1076
1
6
380
25
43
486
3
27
7
375
8
294
365
~1200
2156
1160
~2000
43
175
13
~700

...for a total average of 459.9565217 MM eggs hatched per shiny. Granted, it's a bit biased because it only counts successful hunts, so lower numbers are more likely to show up. There were a number of people who gave up after a certain number of eggs, and those numbers aren't included here.

Also, that's not counting Fufu's Growlithe or my Magnemite, since they were hatched 1/8192, but if they were included, they would bring the numbers down even further (from ~460 to ~447).

I know the sample size is small, but with 23 trials, I would think that we'd at least be a little closer to the average. I'm going to keep tracking this and see if the law of large numbers eventually pushes the average closer to 1/1365.3, but my guess is that that's not going to happen. After 23 trials, only 2 took longer than the assumed average. 21.7% of all hunts ended with a shiny in less than 10 eggs. Even by not including unsuccessful hunts, that seems pretty fishy to me. There are three possibilities here:
  1. The SHC is the luckiest organization ever to exist. We've gotten 23 shinies over the course of a period of encounters where the average group would only have 7.748.
  2. The sample size is too small. Eventually, the law of large numbers will catch up with us, and SHC members will, from this point forward, hatch shinies at a disproportionately slower rate (over the course of a very long time; there will still be shinies hatched very quickly, but they'll become less and less common relative to the hunts that take more than 1365.3 eggs.).
  3. The odds of the Masuda Method are not 1/1365.3.

1337 Palkia :D
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  #18227    
Old June 7th, 2011 (06:44 PM).
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2Cool4Mewtwo
Pwning in Ubers since 1996.
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Cerulean Cave
Age: 21
Gender: Male
Nature: Rash
My shiny-hunting has been super slow lately... guess what, 0/4 shines found in last 2-3wks. Though granted, I've only been hatching 10-15 eggs per day because I'm so busy with schoolwork and all. School doesn't end until June 22nd

I might as well forget it for now and buy/play HG after school year is over. There's nothing interesting to do anymore in pokemon black, so yeah... That doesn't mean I'm going to give up completely though!
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  #18228    
Old June 7th, 2011 (08:44 PM).
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Latios Master
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Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Minnesota
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Quote originally posted by G-Money:
Although it's a small sample size, it looks like I'm on the right track. Here are all of the amounts of eggs taken to find a shiny via the Masuda Method mentioned in this thread:

36
1076
1
6
380
25
43
486
3
27
7
375
8
294
365
~1200
2156
1160
~2000
43
175
13
~700
It's amazing that 5 hunts took less than 10 eggs, and 11 under 100.

I'm now up to 1,206 Litwicks. I've been hatching about 60 a day. I fill up two boxes, check their IVs, keep what's good, release the rest, and repeat. All of my hunts have combined for a total of 1,363 eggs, which is about 3 short of the odds. I've also hatched about another 100 eggs that I didn't count to get Pokémon for my Pokédex.
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  #18229    
Old June 8th, 2011 (06:25 AM).
MICAHISCOOL888
Beginning Trainer
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
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Hi I Have been reading your post to see If I would join and it looks good! so Can I join?
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  #18230    
Old June 8th, 2011 (10:09 AM).
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It's Just Fufu
Nostalgia is powerful.
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: The Ghetto (Shinies are here!)
Age: 21
Nature: Hasty
G-Money, you should add 3,744 eggs and 1,353 eggs to that sample size because that's how much I hatched for my shiny Riolu and Shroomish respectively.
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  #18231    
Old June 8th, 2011 (10:45 AM).
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pokewalker
If it ain't Dutch,it ain'tmuch
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Quote originally posted by MICAHISCOOL888:
Hi I Have been reading your post to see If I would join and it looks good! so Can I join?
Quote originally posted by G-Money:
EDIT: YES!!!!! YES!! SHE'S HERE!!! FINALLY, SHE'S HERE!!! WHOO!!

SHINY DRIFLOON!!!!!!!!! Sleep Powder, one Ultra Ball, BAM!! The hunt is a success! Another shiny ghost! The battle lasted around 20 seconds, "lol." I saw her as soon as she came across the screen, "lol." I love shiny Drifloon, with the enormous contrast and whatnot. I had been hunting Drifloon since January 28th.

Spoiler:
Of course you can.

Gratz on that Drifloon, G-Money! It seems you still didnt give me my luck back xD

Hmm... I've done 10k3 secret REs and 1k Sudowoodo's, but now taking a break to play LG for the first time

GL all!
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  #18232    
Old June 8th, 2011 (11:17 AM). Edited June 10th, 2011 by G-Money.
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G-Money
Polychromatic Iridescence
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Boston
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MICAH, you're already a member! You just need to let us know what other shinies you have so that Landorus can update the Dex on the first page.

Quote originally posted by G-Money:

Quote originally posted by MICAHISCOOL888:
Can I join? I have a Shiny Roserade and other random ones.
Sure, welcome to the club! What other shinies do you have?

Quote originally posted by It's Just Fufu:
G-Money, you should add 3,744 eggs and 1,353 eggs to that sample size because that's how much I hatched for my shiny Riolu and Shroomish respectively.
Thanks for the extra data! Your Riolu hunt is by far the longest, by 1,479 eggs! :o

I've gotten some more trials and have updated stats: the average, after 67 trials, is now 584.75. (That could actually be plus or minus .0017, due to the differences between people who say that they got a shiny in x eggs versus the people who said they got a shiny after x eggs.) 13.43% of hunts produced a shiny within 10 eggs, and 37.31% produced a shiny within 100 eggs. Only 9 of the 67 hunts took longer than the assumed average.

There's another possibility that I hadn't thought of before: maybe there's a drastic difference between the probability that any one egg will be shiny and the probability of having found at least one shiny in x eggs. For random encounters, the point at which there's a 50/50 chance of having found a shiny is actually 5678 encounters; 1/8192 is the probability of any one Pokemon being shiny, but there's actually a 63% chance of having found a shiny by your 8192nd encounter.

Here are all of the numbers:

Spoiler:
36
1076
1
6
380
25
43
486
3
27
7
375
8
294
365
1200
2156
1160
700
2000
43
175
135
2672
584
297
2255
351
595
350
1810
199
5
88
89
501
335
269
29
1266
160
578
9
599
523
96
97
42
2265
5
184
1022
1113
564
519
262
303
361
1827
54
58
38
1062
61
3744
1353


1506 Palkia

EDIT: 1885 Palkia

No posts in over 2 days. I guess everybody's busy shiny hunting, and posting would just take time away from the hunt! :D

Someone at another forum ran through a computer an event that had a probability of 1/1365. After the first group of 70 trials, the average was 1432.0714. For the second group of 70 trials, the average was 1280.6857. For the third, 1712.6. For the fourth, 1311. For the fifth, 1252.3714.

50 groups of 70 were run. Out of the 50 sets of 70 trials, not a single one yielded an average below 1171.

My collection of 70 MM trials? The average was 587.2898. Maybe if I found another set of 70 MM hunts, the average of that group would be much higher.

There are a lot of things this could be, but it's still pretty interesting. After 50 sets of 70, none averaged less than 1171. I wonder how many sets of 70 you'd have to run before getting an average of 587? I'm sure it's possible, and maybe we just are ridiculously lucky, or not taking into account people who gave up long hunts completely throws everything off. Heck, if infinitely many tests were run, there'd eventually be a group of 70 in which all 70 people consecutively got a shiny on the first egg. Maybe we're just one of those irregularities?

MetalMario knows a lot about statistics and stuff. I'd like to see what he has to say about this, since he could probably make some sense of the results.
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  #18233    
Old June 10th, 2011 (05:41 PM).
Shiny Celebi
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I have a new shiny. On tuesday in Japanese Black, I decided to leave Cobalion and after tracking down a male Axew for Masuda Method, I went to Rt 1. I was just walking in the grass and the next thing you know, a Lillipup jumps out. I saw the saprkles and heard the sound and freaked out. It was shiny! I quickly caught it in the first Pokeball. That was a lucky one and completely unexpected. I wish it couldve been an Axew or Boldore but a shiny is a shiny!. Id be thrilled to death if Ho-oh or Tirtouga decided to shine soon.
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  #18234    
Old June 10th, 2011 (09:31 PM).
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Latios Master
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Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Minnesota
Age: 27
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Nature: Adamant
Congrats on the shiny Lillipup, Shiny Celebi!

1,266 Litwicks. I'm starting to hatch less and less now. I only have one empty box left to use. I'll have to eventually release a bunch of Litwicks with a perfect IV in one stat to make more room.
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  #18235    
Old June 10th, 2011 (11:21 PM).
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pokewalker
If it ain't Dutch,it ain'tmuch
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Join Date: Jun 2010
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Gender: Male
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My parents installed some annoying rule where I can only DS 5hrs a week, sadly, and they look at the in-game-clock off all the games I own where there is a in-game-clock to check if I really did it 5hrs. Now this is annoying, but still they forgot about SRing I can still do MM (SR-MM), regular SR AND RE!!! (just turn off the game when you're done without saving) Now I can't play that much on LG anymore considering I'm in the mid of the game, but whatever. I also got another idea; when I get an shiny, I'll just trade it to the flashcard (cuz they didn't record that) and EV it there. That way, I'll still be able to hunt a lot without them knowing. Oh and I just paused my Secret RE hunt wich is at 10k something, to make place for my first hunt which I didn't complete; SHINY TAILLOW! I started this in November but after 175 eggs I quitted so now, I'm picking it up from 175 eggs I hatched b4 and I'm now at 200. I use the SR-MM method so they won't notice of me going over the time allowed. And also people; I found a online Pokémon Storage Box! This can be usefull for you Latios Master considering you can just upload your Litwicks to that thing and have them all stored there. They will still be there on your game, but you can release them there now cos you'll have them there instead! Go here: http://pokecheck.kraftpaper.org/ The good thing is that you can also view all the data of your pokémon and also download the .pkm! I use it myself to know the exact IVs of my pokémon and to have my shinies on the internet too; if I would ever lose any of my games with a shiny on it, it would still be there! :D
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  #18236    
Old June 11th, 2011 (01:39 AM).
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Weber
Thats Farfetch'd
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Gender: Male
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if you guys and gals dont mind me being on here i might as well join in on the fun.

heres the story one what im working on now, i wanted to get a gba micro for funzies becuase i work the night shift and gotta do something at night and found one that had fire red included (as well as advance wars but thats getting off topic) so i bounced on it, now im soft reseting for a shiny charmander... no luck yet but i only have 1.5k resets so hopefully soon it will co operate but who knows.

also its nice to see other people hunting shinies, and i will have to pm landorous (my spelling isnt the best with these new gen 5 names)
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  #18237    
Old June 11th, 2011 (01:04 PM). Edited June 12th, 2011 by G-Money.
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G-Money
Polychromatic Iridescence
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Boston
Age: 21
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Quote originally posted by Shiny Celebi:
...Lillipup jumps out. I saw the saprkles and heard the sound and freaked out. It was shiny!
Congrats! (I just recently figured out who you were, "lol.")

Quote originally posted by pokewalker:
*post*
Darn, that's awful. My parents do stuff like that, too, although they haven't been enforcing that much this summer.

I had never heard of that site before, but it sounds pretty cool, like a larger box system. Just be careful with it - make sure you don't get your hidden ID! RNGed shinies don't count for the club.

Quote originally posted by Weber:
if you guys and gals dont mind me being on here i might as well join in on the fun.
Welcome! Good luck on that Charmander hunt!
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  #18238    
Old June 11th, 2011 (01:10 PM).
poketranier729
Beginning Trainer
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Gender: Male
can i join i have a shiny darkra dexos raqava reasream and grainta
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  #18239    
Old June 11th, 2011 (04:05 PM).
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MetalMario
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Location: In a tiberium patch chaining for a shiny visceroid
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G-Money, your math is wrong. For your math to be right, you must not give up a hunt ever, and you must also not count any shinies until you've completed any hunts you were doing concurrently with them.

Imagine the scenario: You attempt to Masuda breed for a given species. If you don't get it within 500 eggs, you switch to another species. This means the number of tries from each of your successes will never exceed 500.

Count the number of eggs you've hatched on all your 5th-gen games, add them together, divide by the number of shinies you've hatched. That's your experimental mean.
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  #18240    
Old June 11th, 2011 (04:50 PM).
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Razer302
Three Days Grace - Break
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: England
Age: 24
Nature: Quiet
Haven't had any time to hunt recently. Been far to busy and I have a lot of PS3 games I have been playing. I get in as many SR on zapdos as I can but still had no luck which really sucks. and random encountering on black also with no luck.

Gratz to all the new shinys people have gotten.
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  #18241    
Old June 11th, 2011 (05:00 PM).
poketranier729
Beginning Trainer
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Gender: Male
i have made a legend club if any one would like to join
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  #18242    
Old June 11th, 2011 (05:27 PM).
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Latios Master
11 Year PC Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
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Nature: Adamant
My Litwick hunt is coming to an end. I want to get back to putting together my competitive team, so I will end the hunt when I reach 1,400. Right now I'm at 1,320. I might return to the hunt in the future when I'm done putting together a team. The Pokémon that I will be breeding for are Magnemite, Archen, Cranidos, Sandile, Axew, and Bagon. Magnemite, Axew, and Bagon are the only ones for my team, with Bagon as an alternate for Axew. The other three are just for fun.
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  #18243    
Old June 12th, 2011 (10:49 AM).
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It's Just Fufu
Nostalgia is powerful.
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: The Ghetto (Shinies are here!)
Age: 21
Nature: Hasty
I come bearing good news yet again! After reaching 15,018 encounters for Staryu and 18,003 encounters for Gible, I decided to take a little bit of a break from both. My hunt for Paras has been bothering me for the longest, so I figured that I would get up to 24,000 encounters for it before I went back to hunting for Gible. Last night, I increased my total from 23,100 encounters to 23,416 encounters.

So today after church, I noticed that I had a bit of free time before I have to get ready for some event I'm going to later. So what do I decide to do? Shiny hunt, of course! Double hunting on both FR and LG while reading some interesting articles about human relations, I was able to raise my total rather quickly. The sound was off on both games, but I was looking at the games before I pressed "Run" every time. I've read too many stories about people looking at their games a nanosecond too late, and they end up running away from the shiny.

Today, my paranoia paid off because after 23,886 encounters, I found a shiny Paras on my LeafGreen version!

When I looked, instantly recognized that it was different, but I simply could NOT believe that it was shiny. I had to compare the Paras on my LG version to the Paras on my FR version just to make sure that the colors were different, lol. And even then, part of me refused to believe that I was finally fighting a shiny Paras. I decided to catch the Paras just to be sure.

It took a total of three turns. Yawn on Turn 1. Switch to Scizor on Turn 2. False Swipe on Turn 3. One Nest Ball later, Paras was mine!

It is female, it has a Brave nature, and it was holding a Big Mushroom! Talk about lucky, huh?

I wasn't able to make a video of the capture because the camera isn't available to me at the moment, but I guess I'll make a video later. I think this shiny is especially important to commemorate by video; even though it isn't a fire type shiny, it IS one of my longest hunts to date.

Good luck to everyone else! I dunno what my next target on FR/LG will be!

pokewalker, could you elaborate more about that online storage website?
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  #18244    
Old June 12th, 2011 (10:18 PM).
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Latios Master
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Congrats on the shiny Paras, FuFu! That's a lot of encounters.

Litwick: 1,350
Magnemite: 39
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  #18245    
Old June 13th, 2011 (07:34 AM).
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It's Just Fufu
Nostalgia is powerful.
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: The Ghetto (Shinies are here!)
Age: 21
Nature: Hasty
Thank you for congratulating me, Latios Master.

Just thought I'd post some pictures of my shiny Paras. Other than that, I don't really have much to say.

Spoiler:



I made a video, too, which should be up in a couple of hours.

Good luck to everyone else! I think my shiny hunting is going to slow down for the next few weeks. Despite my recent success, I find myself lacking motivation...
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  #18246    
Old June 13th, 2011 (04:18 PM). Edited June 14th, 2011 by Uade.
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Uade
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The only shiny Pokemon I ever got was a blue Unown H. I was trying to get all the different Unowns in my Heartgold, but then I encountered this, I already had an Unown H but I knew I had to get this. So I threw about 50 Reg pokeballs because I did not have false swipe at the time and did not want to risk attacking it so yea I threw pokeballs lol.

EDIT: Oh yea I just remembered, I have a red gyarados from I think Heartgold or something. Idk maybe my diamond.
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  #18247    
Old June 13th, 2011 (07:40 PM).
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Latios Master
11 Year PC Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
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Age: 27
Gender: Male
Nature: Adamant
I finally got my first shiny Pokémon in gen 5! It's not a Litwick that I've been trying to get using the Masuda Method for the past seven weeks, but an Audino. I came across it on Route 12 when I was leveling up my Anorith to get Armaldo for my Pokédex. The shiny Audino has a perfect IV in HP. My streak of bad luck is finally over.

Spoiler:

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  #18248    
Old June 14th, 2011 (12:45 AM).
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Weber
Thats Farfetch'd
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
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Nature: Relaxed
nice shiny latios, im glad you unlucky streak is over and with a good shiny at that with good stats for the most part. i hope you get your shiny litwick soon, i have been going after one of those for a while as well but im mainly hunting that darn charmander.



might as well tell you guys and gals what other shinies im also going for
numel- i have a whole pc full of eggs currently minus half a box in ss
rayquaza- just becuase ive gotten to it now in emerald
manectric- havent started yet
magnemite- havent started yet either
oh yeah and charmander if you couldnt guess.
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  #18249    
Old June 14th, 2011 (04:56 AM). Edited June 14th, 2011 by HaloSonic.
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HaloSonic
NOM NOM NOM
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: West Indies.
Age: 25
Gender: Male
Nature: Relaxed
sadly, Ive been in a dry spell catching shinies, but Ive got 4 recently from events, the Pikachu-Colored Pichu, and the 3 legendary dogs to catch Zoroark.

Oh wait, this is a new club? ok, guess I'll have to re-register, and I'll haul across my list from the old one... wait, it's gone? oh crap, I can't even remember what I caught... let's see what I remember.

Gen II
Cleffa
Gyarados (duh)
Ledyba
Igglybuff
Goldeen

(missed out on catching a shiny Spinirak in Prism)

Gen III
Machop x2
Torkoal
Mahiukita
Golbat
Crobat
Geodude
Zigzagoon (disguised as a Bidoof in a ROMhack)

Gen IV
Ponyta
Nosepass
Gyarados (HeartGold)

Obatined through Events (Gen IV)
Pichu
Suicune
Raikou
Entei
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  #18250    
Old June 14th, 2011 (12:02 PM). Edited June 14th, 2011 by Latios Master.
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Latios Master
11 Year PC Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Minnesota
Age: 27
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Nature: Adamant
Thanks, Weber! Good luck on your hunts. Audino is the Pokémon I come across the most in the wild, since I use them for leveling up quicker. About a month ago I was wondering if one would end up being shiny since I come across so many. Getting a shiny Audino has given me more patience when it comes to Litwick. I think I'll hatch some in between each Pokémon that I am hatching on the list that I listed in a previous post.

Welcome back to the club, HaloSonic! Event and ROM Pokémon don't count towards the list on page 1. Gyarados doesn't count either, since everyone who plays those games can get one.
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