Conversation Between Hands and Ivysaur
Showing Visitor Messages 1 to 15 of 17
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I think the problem is that Brexit is unraveling with every new day of talks (look at today's Grauniad or Telegraph) and the Tories own it lock, stock and barrel. It doesn't help that the whole Government is a shambles and ministers are openly contradicting each other, and May is, in fact, seen as a coward for not resigning after blowing it up.
The question is- how does it get any better for them? Brexit is only going to get worse as it becomes obvious that May and her ministers haven't got any clue of what they are doing and that all possible outcomes are worse than staying.
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July 6th, 2017 11:38 PM
Hands
its crazy isnt it? I'm weary that its just because people currently dont like May but I feel like its ok to be hopeful now. The DUP thing has been a massive gift to our image
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YouGov says Lab +8. 46/38
That's a +23 increase in Lab VI since April.
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June 15th, 2017 12:06 AM
Hands
Oh did it? I was already at the festival by voting day so I might not of seen the latest (I think June 3rd is probs last I looked at polls)
Kensington was incredibly close, only 20 votes between them! Hopefully when May's Govt collapses we can increase that
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Opinium had 40 - 41. Labour exactly correct, Con wrong by 1.4%.
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June 14th, 2017 11:54 PM
Hands
Opinium had Labour at 36% on their final poll didn't they? I guess that's within the margin of error.
Yeah, watching Corbyn roasting her on Wednesday was something else haha
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Hey, hey, YouGov called Canterbury and Kensington, which is fairly amazing. Hands down to them. And the current poll that gives Corbyn a lead is from Opinium, which also correctly called the result... and also did 2015, so it's quite good.
Now to see the Maybot slowly melting down. I kinda can't wait to get my copy of this week's Private Eye and laugh a good while.
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June 14th, 2017 11:24 PM
Hands
Hi mate, sorry for late reply, was at a music festival.
Yeah, what a result! I wasn't that right though, the seats I predicted we'd take were held by the Tories! I don't think anybody could of seen us taking Battersea and Canterbury though, what a result!
YouGov did indeed call it fairly accurately, and I've gotta eat humble pie in their regard. However, the final polls were all over the shop so i'm still skeptical about them (even tho we're now leading in them :p)
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You predicted it. Yougov nailed it. I think we both learnt a valuable lesson today.
In my case, never stop believing. In yours, that Yougov isn't quite as muke :P
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May 30th, 2017 11:57 PM
Hands
Embarrassing in the sense I've called them wrong, not in some smug way. Sorry, I realise how that must have come across
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May 30th, 2017 11:52 PM
Hands
It's always a little embarrassing when the pollsters I rubbish come to the same conclusions I originally thought would happen haha. A hung parliament works for me. As long as we limit her hand.
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Remember your friends from YouGov? They have a pretty surreal poll on The Times today. 20-ish seat swing from Con to Lab.
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May 26th, 2017 12:52 AM
Hands
there's a lot of swing seats we're likely to take that UKIP have lost favour in (like Yarmouth and Waveny) which are areas that usually do not get polled so that is worth being excited about.
You've got a great point in the fact that if she loses even 1 seat that's far from the 100 she thought she'd win.
The terrorist attack has only bolstered her support with conservatives. A lot of people outright blame her because she cut around 22,000 police officers and the chairman of the police federation, alongside Corbyn, brought this up. I think, if anything, it'll push more people to us based on our pledge of 10,000 new Police Officers over 5 years.
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On an uniform swing, May would lose 15 seats (!) and end with a majority of two even if she won by 5 points. The SNP's incredible results mean that almost all her Scottish votes are wasted, so that's a 3% that "doesn't count". Hilariously enough, Labour's collapse in Scotland means their wasted votes are just 1.5%. So a 5% lead is "really" a 3.5 point lead. Not only that, but Labour's results in marginals are even stronger than the uniform swing would suggest, according to some constituency polling (this all can be terribly wrong but it's the best we have to work with).
Anyway, losing seats when she wanted a 100+ majority would be a massive humilliation. Losing her overall majority would probably be her end. Can the Momentum (wink) keep going on to make a Lab-SNP coalition add up? Apparently, the terrorist attack stopped the trend and made May seem "presidential". Can Corbyn get it back on track on policy and denounce her insane attempt to break encrypted services?
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May 25th, 2017 10:44 PM
Hands
Regardless, no matter how much I distrust a sample size of 1000-2000, the consistent and rapid gains we've made in the polls definitely bodes well.