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-   -   Solar model predicts "Mini Ice Age" in 2030 (https://www.pokecommunity.com/showthread.php?t=352158)

Livewire July 13th, 2015 9:05 AM

Solar model predicts "Mini Ice Age" in 2030
 
http://www.iflscience.com/environment/we-could-be-heading-mini-ice-age-2030

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/science/11733369/Earth-heading-for-mini-ice-age-within-15-years.html

Quote:

The earth is 15 years from a "mini ice-age" that will cause bitterly cold winters during which rivers such as the Thames freeze over, scientists have predicted.
Solar researchers at the University of Northumbria have created a new model of the sun's activity which they claim produces "unprecedentedly accurate predictions".
They said fluid movements within the sun, which are thought to create 11-year cycles in the weather, will converge in such a way that temperatures will fall dramatically in the 2030s.
Solar activity will fall by 60 per cent as two waves of fluid "effectively cancel each other out", according to Prof Valentina Zharkova.

In a presentation to the National Astronomy Meeting in Llandudno, she said the result would be similar to freezing conditions of the late 17th century.
“[In the cycle between 2030 and around 2040] the two waves exactly mirror each other – peaking at the same time but in opposite hemispheres of the sun," she said.
"Their interaction will be disruptive, or they will nearly cancel each other.
"We predict that this will lead to the properties of a ‘Maunder minimum'".
Maunder minimum, indicating low sunspot activity, was the name given to the period between 1645 and 1715, when Europe and North America experienced very cold winters.

In England during this "Little Ice Age", River Thames frost fairs were held. In the winter of 1683-84 the Thames froze over for seven weeks, during which it was "passable by foot", according to historical records.

Prof Zharkova said scientists had known about one dynamo caused by convecting fluids deep within the sun, but her research appeared to have uncovered another.
"We found magnetic wave components appearing in pairs, originating in two different layers in the sun’s interior," she said.

"They both have a frequency of approximately 11 years, although this frequency is slightly different, and they are offset in time.
"Over the cycle, the waves fluctuate between the northern and southern hemispheres of the Sun. Combining both waves together and comparing to real data for the current solar cycle, we found that our predictions showed an accuracy of 97 per cent."
This had helped create a picture of what would happen in the 2030s.

"Effectively, when the waves are approximately in phase, they can show strong interaction, or resonance, and we have strong solar activity," Prof Zharkova said.
"When they are out of phase, we have solar minimums. When there is full phase separation, we have the conditions last seen during the Maunder minimum, 370 years ago."
inb4 "global warming/climate change isn't real!!" comments

How would modern society handle an imminent, rather drastic change in climate, rather than a steady change of global temperatures, weather patterns, etc?

Somewhere_ July 13th, 2015 10:00 AM

11 year cycles are the sunspot cycles as a result of magnetic fields within the sun. So I think this means there will be no sunspots at all. Something similar to this happened about 400 years ago I think (you mentioned it too).

I am ready for cooler weather, but this could seriously change a lot of things if this really happens, especially with food chains and such.

Esper July 13th, 2015 10:19 AM

Well, the world didn't end during the last mini ice age so I think we'll survive this one, too.

I expect the temperature changes would be worst for the weather and for agriculture. A little something like that it making all kinds of trouble here where I live with the drought and people not being able to grow food like they expected to. If something like this, either more or less rain in places, affects the whole world then that could cause food prices to go up or possibly cause shortages, famine, and other bad stuff like that.

Pinkie-Dawn July 13th, 2015 10:28 AM

I'm trying to reread the news to find out how long this mini Ice Age will last, because I don't know if it means we will have snow in the west coast or it'll still look the same as it is only with colder temperature.


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