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How rare is it to pick up a 10km egg?
Or is it even possible? I remember i got 2 from the start and i regret hatching it early (got an 88 onix and 156 aerodactyl) Now that i'm level 20 and hatched like 20+ eggs i still havent gotten a 10km one.
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It seems like they've become a lot rarer, towards the start of the game there was a time where I had three in quick succession, but now I hardly get any. Niantic probably increased the rarity of them.
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It's completely random.
From levels 1 to 26 (cumulative 900,000 experience), I only hatched six 10km eggs. But from levels 26 to halfway to 30 (cumulative ~900,000 experience), I hatched 27 10km eggs. And I have another ready to hatch in about 0.8km as I'm typing this. This player I bumped into several times is about the same level as me and he's hatched 55 10km eggs. You're level 20 and you've gotten a total of two 10km eggs. My mother is level 16 and she's gotten seven 10km eggs already (but only hatched two). How many eggs have you hatched lifetime? Do you bulk hatch eggs? I slowly whittle out all 2km eggs from my inventory, hatching them one by one with the infinite incubator. As soon as I have eight or nine 5km and/or 10km eggs, I purchase eight incubators and incubate all eggs. It's how I often end up hatching 15-20 eggs per day and I'm at 420 total eggs hatched as of this moment. |
I received none until level 20 (where I am now), and then got 3 in quick succession.
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It does seem random. I have gotten probably 5 10km between lvl 1 and 24 and my wife has gotten 1.
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I've always found that if I hatch loads of eggs so I have 5-6 free spots for eggs then hit the pokestops to get back up to 9 eggs then 1 of those 6 I pick up will be a 10k, particularly if on a stop I pick up 2 eggs on of them will probably be the 10k
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I've gotten 2 in about 40 eggs, and the second was an Eevee. Curse them for putting Eevee in a 10km egg.
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Hmm then buying incubators is a must to do that, unless you go to 0 pokestops until half your eggs has been hatched..
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I'm level 20 and I've had two 10km eggs. Once when I first started the game, which hatched an Eevee, and one that I hatched yesterday, which gave me a Chansey.
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I have not gotten a single 10K egg since I was level 10. It's so weird. I only have 5k eggs right now and haven't gotten a single 2k since I was level 15.
maybe it's level based? |
It is completely random.
If you're not into spending money in the game (meaning limited incubators), then prioritize hatching as many 2km eggs as you can as fast as you can so you can visit PokéStops to grab more eggs. More eggs hatched = more new eggs you can obtain. I'm well past 400 eggs hatched lifetime and a little less than 10% of those eggs were 10km ones. |
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10km eggs are quite rare, and its random, but the human brain despises randomness and will make up nonsense just to find an explanation that is different from randomness, even a really bad explanation is somehow preferred over randomness. |
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But seriously though put your phone down for 5 minutes and chill out. |
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So while the method objectively does not work, it will continue to work for you. It is basically like a person taking homeopathy and believing it works, because the majority of small medical issues like a seasonal flu or a stomach ache or a bruised knee will get better on their own. But because the homeopathy-believer will always take homeopathy with it, it is misattributed to homeopathy. Now the reason i point it out is because others might believe you, and there is a bad side-effect: Your belief, if taken seriously, implies that you can only get 10km eggs if you spend a lot of money on incubators. Like having 9 incubators running most of the time, which translates into a cost of around 10 euros every 15 kilometers. In reality it is random, and you will ALSO get the 10k eggs if you work with the eternal incubator and maybe only occasionally buy one incubator from the shop. |
Like I mentioned earlier, it's all random. If you think of 10km eggs as winning tickets to a scratch off lottery, then you simply improve your chances of "winning" by obtaining more tickets.
Of course, you'll also inevitably collect more "losing" tickets as well, in this case 2km and 5km eggs. This is why I asked in my first response here whether or not the OP bulk hatches eggs/buys incubators. OP hatched 20 eggs by level 20. I can hatch 20 eggs in one day. The more eggs you hatch, the more new eggs you'll see, the more opportunities you have in seeing a 10km one. Mind you, just because you have the opportunity doesn't mean you'll actually get anything. Why? Because it's random. It's as simple as simple can get. Completely random. It's fact. Not opinion. |
Well, I'm level 20 and have only ever caught 2 10K eggs. The first was early on, at about level 7, and the second was at level 19. I haven't been counting exactly but I would estimate that I have probably collected about 30 eggs in total, so going from that, the rate would be about 1 in 15, but of course a much larger sample size would be needed to say anything for sure.
I think they're the right level of rare for now |
I get that it's random and it's still to early to have enough data but I will give examples of what I've seen so far.
When I've had 8 empty spots for eggs I always get at least 1 10k egg from pokestops, I usually get a 10k egg when I get 2 eggs from the same stop. So with 10 empty spots with a minimum of 1 10k egg means that in that situation I have more than 12.5% chance per egg When I have 4 empty spots I generally find that betweem 1 in 2-3 times in that Sitaution I get a 10k egg and again it's usually when I get 2 eggs from the same stop so with 4 empty spots I have about 10% chance per egg. In the last week I've not had any extra incubators so only been picking up eggs once at a time and with hatching 4 eggs a day it took me 10 days to get a 10k egg. So in that case a 2.5% chance of a 10k egg Like I said it's still too early to say definatively that the more eggs you collect in short time the better chance of a 10k it has been clear that most the 10k's I've picked up has been when I've picked up 2 eggs from the same stop. More empty egg spaces increases the chance of that so it's definitely worth investigating further. |
Seems super random. I got a few at the early levels but haven't gotten another since like... lv. 12 I want to say, and I'm almost lv. 20 now. /: But I'm very happy with the Pokémon I hatched from them!!
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There is no way that the distribution of eggs is "Statistically Random". If it were truly random, we would see a more equal distribution of eggs when you go to a Poke Stop.
For example: Consider a 6-sided dice. Each roll of the dice is considered a random event. But over several rolls, the occurence of numbers starts to equal out. |
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It is random in the sense that you get (rough guesstimates not based on actual data) you get 10% 10km eggs, 55% 5km eggs, and 35% 2km eggs. And it does not matter if you use 8 purchased incubators and the infinite one, or if you dance around the pokestops in circles before you spin them, or if you send away a weedle each time you hit a pokestop, or if you just use the eternal incubator and use it to hatch out whatever you feel like. This kind of randomness just spawns superstitious beliefs based on confirmation bias, you can see the same with gambling addicts in Las Vegas with their lucky charms and lucky numbers and lucky hats and blowing on the dice and stuff. Humans have a way out, reason, but in animal testing scientists managed to induce superstitious behaviors in different animals, even pigeons and chickens. |
Have you read through every line of code to confirm that each egg is 100% random with nothing at all that could influence it?
The one thing I've learnt so far is talk to as many people as possible and see what results they get for things, come up with an idea to test then get some results. Some theories turn out to be wrong (but may help you come up with the correct theory) but assuming that there isn't anything you can learn won't help you at all. Like I said I don't have enough data yet to prove or disprove my theory that getting more than 1 egg from a pokestop gives better chance of getting a 10k egg, for now all I can do is keep hatching eggs then at some point i will have enough data to say I'm right or I'm wrong |
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You can probably find something on Silph Road or whatever else theorycrafting/datamining site. It's where all the talk of random and total luck comes in. |
All I can say is I got my 2nd 10km egg after hatching about 6 eggs in my party and not going to another pokestop in that time. So about a week.
Usually when I hatch 1 egg at a time and then get a new egg immediately after it's always a 5, sometimes a 2. I guess if I get a 10km egg while having 8 eggs in my party I could believe it was random. At this point and time I think 10km eggs are more likely when getting multiple eggs in a row as opposed to one at a time. But a couple things need to change, Eevee needs to be removed from 10km eggs, in no way shape or form should Eevee be in 10km eggs over Kangaskhan or whatever. Also I don't believe the pokestop chaining thing, usually if I have an open spot or more, I get an egg from the next pokestop until I hit 9 eggs again. Which is why it's impossible to have less then 7 eggs at a time. |
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I've found four Lapras after playing since day 1 and I'm level 30. One of my friends who lives in New England complains that he finds too many Lapras, already having obtained four of them before he hit level 12. I bet he wishes they wouldn't hatch from 10km eggs sometimes. What about Pinsirs and Scythers? I've seen some people here being ecstatic they finally found a Pinsir. Meanwhile I'm sitting on nearly 200 Pinsir candies because they're like vermin where I live. |
Level 25 currently...
In my first 100 hatched eggs I only received 3 10k eggs. Since that time I have hatched 50ish more and 4 or 5 of which were 10k eggs (sadly mostly useless duplicates). Even though I've have hatched 8 or so 10k eggs only a couple (two snorlaxes) are actually used during battles. Three percent for the first hundred eggs sucks, but after reading many of the replies in this thread that seems to be what people are seeing. |
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I've noticed that in the last level or two Pinsirs have suddenly started turning up with frequency as well (a few Scythers in the last level or two too). |
That's not a good excuse for them being in 10km eggs, with 5km eggs they'd hatch faster because they'd have more eggs to hatch of them...
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it is extremely rare. my peers dont even have it haha
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I have over 100 eevee candy but i feel that i dont have enough, the rumour is the later gens evolutions of eevees willl be random (by the end you will have a 1 in 8 chance of getting the one you want) just imagine how frustrating that will be to try to get a perfect IV best moveset and correct evolution.
What frustrates me is that i find it more likely to get pokemon from eggs that i already have. I found a Jynx locally and then got 3 Jynx's out of 4 10k eggs. Then i found a wild Magmar then got 2 magmars in succession from 10k eggs Again same thing with Pinsirs After ages of getting the same pokemon from 10k's i finally got an electabuzz then suddenly i get another 2 very quickly But there are still loads of pokemon from 10k's that i havent got yet |
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Is true that I probably will have enough by that time but I'm happy to have more than I need than be stuggleing to get enough eevee candy.
I had 6 empty egg spaces earlier, picked up 2 5ks then got 2 eggs from the next stop and one of those was a 10k. Again still not enough proof that my theory is right as correlation does not imply causation however until I read anything definatively saying it doesn't I'm inclined to believe that it might increase my chances of getting a 10k (even if it's only a small increase of random chance I will take it) Edit:Picked up 2 more eggs to fill my egg slots and got another 10k |
Eevees are moderately rare here - level 20 and have only managed to evolve one once. An eevee is one of the things I'm most hopeful for in a 10K, but no luck yet.
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Just cleared 2 slots hoping for a 10km egg and then got a 2 and 5km egg ugh
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I've found quite a few Eevees in my town and the town where I work in. I have 2 of the 3 Eeveelutions and I can do the 3rd one with 5 more Eevees.
As for 10K eggs, I've gotten 3 so far. One I hatched was an Eevee. |
I just recently got a 3rd 10km egg and I had 8 eggs in my party at the time.
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I just got my 2nd 10k egg since i started playing at the begining of the month. As far as eevee's go. being home on vacation they seem to be pretty common around here. I caught 4 alone inside my grandma's house yesterday
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I've only got an egg for up to 5 km.
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i often get 3 or 4 10 km eggs in a single day but it means crap when im getting eevees 4 out of 5 times.
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I have only gotten 2 10km eggs.
I got Omanyte and Pinsir. After that, Omanyte started to pop up near my house alot. :---D I wish I got more 10 km eggs, it would be awsome to get Dragonair and Lapras. |
Level 27 here. I hatched over 400 eggs. I would say I got about 30% 2k, 50% 5k, 20% 10k. Only I haven't got from 10km is Lapras, Aerodactyl, Mr.mime, and Scyther, and 5k is f'fartech (sp?) and Tanegla, completed 2k eggs.
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My level is 26 and I just had two 10 km eggs. :(
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I have found personally that getting a 10k egg has been getting easier. I am currently level 24 and have current have 7 10k eggs ready to be incubated ( waiting till I get the incubators for leveling to 25).
They have all been acquired in around 2 weeks. I got these 10k eggs all from same couple of pokestops and usually get 10k eggs once I have spun 10 pokestops in a row around the same area. I don't know if that really is a factor but for me It was. |
I'm at level 27 and have gone two weeks since I hatched my last 10k egg and I've been trying to get one since with absolutely no luck. Not a single 10k egg since.
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I'd say <10% chance an egg from a pokestop is 10 Km. I'm level 26 and I've probably hatched 15 total 10 km eggs. Still no Lapras or Snorlax. I've got 4 Pinsers!
Also I've spent exactly zero dollars on this game! All my pokecoins have come from defending gyms. A lot of the time I've just had one incubator. :-( |
I haven't gotten one in a while. I have mostly 5km eggs atm. I actually have enough coins right now to buy another incubator. Probably gonna save it for a 10km.
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all i have right now are 5km. so i feel they are really rare to get now.
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It's random, I stock up until I have 9 10k then buy incubators and hatch all 9 at once. I usually get 1 or 2 10k sets per week.
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Getting nine 10km eggs is nearly impossible to do, as it gets harder to replace the rest when you have more 10km eggs in storage. 1 or 2 sets of nine 10k eggs means you are cheating, or you are trolling this thread because you are 14 years old. |
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Eight 10K eggs! I have zero right now, I feel lucky when I have even one!
One thing that seems off is the "hatching mileage". Most of the time I bike around, and there is one ride I have measured at 9 miles. When I bike this with Pokemon Go on, if I'm not careful I will get the message that I'm going too fast. But even when I'm careful to stay under that speed limit, I don't seem to get credit for 15 km, I am lucky to be able to hatch one 10 km egg. I would say I get only around 8 km or less for my 15 km ride. It seems perhaps "hatching mileage" is more accurate when you are walking? |
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I know the odds of getting it done in a month or two are not zero. I know the odds of repeatedly getting it done once or twice a week are zero unless you make massive use of cheats like GPS hack. |
i got 4 10k eggs in a row last month, so its not that rare i dont think
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i hatched 5x 10km eggs in the past 3 days. although i do hatch a lot of 2 and 5km eggs too, the 10km eggs do come quite often. i just got another one, and im gonna try to save up till i have 9. its probably gonna take weeks.
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I know some people who have never got any, but I also know people like myself who have hatched over 50. It's all luck I don't think there is a set % chance on getting a 10k.
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took me over 3 weeks to collect 9x 10km eggs, and i hatched them last saturday. since then, ive hatched over 20 eggs but havent gotten a single 10km egg.
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Approximately 1 month since my last 10k egg.
I checked and noted that Chansey last 9/23 was my last 10k egg hatch. |
I trashed the hypothesis that pokestops give you more of the same, more of the eggs you are carrying around. I claimed it is random.
Now i try a different approach because i am sick of getting so many 5km eggs. I now walk off the 5km eggs with the eternal incubator and let the 2km and 10km eggs accumulate. Long-term this is the same for me, no loss of efficiency, just a delay at worst, but i will see if it has an impact at all. I hope to prove myself wrong and that i will get less 5km eggs and more 2km and 10km eggs if i mainly carry around 2km and 10km eggs, but i expect to fail. |
There is the element of randomness, but it isn't all random. Like someone said, a single throw of the dice is random; but if you throw it over and over, the numbers will even out.
There are other factors, though. There is how many eggs you hatch, how many of pokestops you visit are ones that give 10 km eggs, and whether you have room when you pass those pokestops. Since I've been using incubators, I find that with each round of eggs, I usually average 1 10km, 5-6 5km, and 2-3 2 km. But there is variation. Sometimes I will get 4 km and no 10km. On the other extreme, right now, I have 2 10km that are not far from hatching, and today I got another 10 km. Overall, though, the numbers average out. The place I usually walk has 10 pokestops, and 3 give 10 km eggs, at least some of the time. I think that is about the average. |
I seem to be lucky with 10K eggs. Probably about 1 in 10 overall. No pattern at all lol.
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It's not that rare honestly. I've gotten like 3.
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