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Eight 10K eggs! I have zero right now, I feel lucky when I have even one!
One thing that seems off is the "hatching mileage". Most of the time I bike around, and there is one ride I have measured at 9 miles. When I bike this with Pokemon Go on, if I'm not careful I will get the message that I'm going too fast. But even when I'm careful to stay under that speed limit, I don't seem to get credit for 15 km, I am lucky to be able to hatch one 10 km egg. I would say I get only around 8 km or less for my 15 km ride. It seems perhaps "hatching mileage" is more accurate when you are walking? |
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I know the odds of getting it done in a month or two are not zero. I know the odds of repeatedly getting it done once or twice a week are zero unless you make massive use of cheats like GPS hack. |
i got 4 10k eggs in a row last month, so its not that rare i dont think
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i hatched 5x 10km eggs in the past 3 days. although i do hatch a lot of 2 and 5km eggs too, the 10km eggs do come quite often. i just got another one, and im gonna try to save up till i have 9. its probably gonna take weeks.
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I know some people who have never got any, but I also know people like myself who have hatched over 50. It's all luck I don't think there is a set % chance on getting a 10k.
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took me over 3 weeks to collect 9x 10km eggs, and i hatched them last saturday. since then, ive hatched over 20 eggs but havent gotten a single 10km egg.
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Approximately 1 month since my last 10k egg.
I checked and noted that Chansey last 9/23 was my last 10k egg hatch. |
I trashed the hypothesis that pokestops give you more of the same, more of the eggs you are carrying around. I claimed it is random.
Now i try a different approach because i am sick of getting so many 5km eggs. I now walk off the 5km eggs with the eternal incubator and let the 2km and 10km eggs accumulate. Long-term this is the same for me, no loss of efficiency, just a delay at worst, but i will see if it has an impact at all. I hope to prove myself wrong and that i will get less 5km eggs and more 2km and 10km eggs if i mainly carry around 2km and 10km eggs, but i expect to fail. |
There is the element of randomness, but it isn't all random. Like someone said, a single throw of the dice is random; but if you throw it over and over, the numbers will even out.
There are other factors, though. There is how many eggs you hatch, how many of pokestops you visit are ones that give 10 km eggs, and whether you have room when you pass those pokestops. Since I've been using incubators, I find that with each round of eggs, I usually average 1 10km, 5-6 5km, and 2-3 2 km. But there is variation. Sometimes I will get 4 km and no 10km. On the other extreme, right now, I have 2 10km that are not far from hatching, and today I got another 10 km. Overall, though, the numbers average out. The place I usually walk has 10 pokestops, and 3 give 10 km eggs, at least some of the time. I think that is about the average. |
I seem to be lucky with 10K eggs. Probably about 1 in 10 overall. No pattern at all lol.
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It's not that rare honestly. I've gotten like 3.
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