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So it looks like from the early polls that Biden will run away with the Democratic nomination. While this is no sure thing, it reminds me in many ways of 2008 with Republicans when the party elected the “next man up” in John McCain who did little to inspire Republicans to vote.
The reason I am referencing this is that I think it works in Trump’s favor in 2020. Having an aging candidate that does not inspire GOTV and connect with the base is a recipe for disaster. Biden can connect with midwestern voters and middle class voters no doubt, but I don’t think he can inspire the so called Obama coalition in 2020 that did not appear for Hillary in 2016. That alone will help Trump win. |
Addressing the topic of the post, the one thing that would guarantee the reelection of Trump in 2020 is primarily his base. From what I would know, his base is incredibly loyal to him, regardless of scandals. Even if there was something that would've destroyed the chances of any other candidate of being elected, it is likely that Trump's base would still vote for him.
The one thing I can see defeating Trump in 2020 is the increase of political participation by young people in recent times. Do I have any certainties about 2020? No, I don't since things are still getting ironed out. All in all, the one thing that would allow Trump to serve four more years is his incredibly loyal base. |
None of the left seem to want to vote anymore, so we'll likely see more republicans even after him.
It's sad, like yes the democrats are shitty too but in this situation I'd take the less shitty option. |
Since there will be independent people on the ballot for the presidency I will probably vote one of them as I don't support Trump or any of the democrats candidates. I do have views of both parties, which could lend to why I don't trust either party 100%.
Though I do see a possibility of trump winning again, but if we have a split congress or democrat controlled congress we would have another 4 year term of literally nothing getting done as I don't see a veto proof majority either. |
With respect to the original topic, Trump won in 2016 because of the convergence of a variety of factors, including but not limited to:
I don't know if Trump can win in 2020. I know that there are some factors in favor and there are some against, but I'm not going to make an ultimate prediction either way.
Again, I'm sure I could come up with others, but you get the picture. Trump had a lot go his way in 2016; it seems a bit more even here, and considering how the popular vote in 2016 was almost dead even with way more in his favor, I think it'll be a tougher sell in 2020. But then given the information we had in 2016, he pulled off an upset there; I can't rule it out in 2020. |
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I have zero doubt in my mind that the videos of Joe Biden being creepy around young females as well as stories from parents will begin to surface as soon as he has grabbed any sort of hold in the election. The Democrats choosing him as their primary candidate is suicide. I think Left news outlets want to support Biden because they think it will allow them to draw supporters of the Obama presidency, and it may. But I have a strong feeling that he's not going to inspire anyone, because personally as a democrat I want something different. Biden is not different. |
I don't know nor care much about U.S. politics (I'm more interested in International politics anyway) but I mean..
If Trump is gonna win, is it probs because theres so many Democrats running, Democrat votes will just be scattered around compared to the majority of Republicans who will probs vote Trump soo Trump will win? idk politics so im probs making no sense lol |
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Pelosi is calling a meeting for impeachment this morning with her caucus, considering the drum beat of the radical Democrats to impeach, and her shaky grip on her caucus, this may be a do or die for Pelosi's speakership.
However, as seen in the past with Republicans, the public does not reward a partisan impeachment they do not believe is deserving as Republicans lost significant seats in the 98 election. The last poll I saw also showed the public does not support impeachment here and are tired with the Mueller mess. This very well could end up significantly boosting Trump's re election chances, while at the same time the chance of him actually being removed from office remains around 0. |
ALT you are assuming that impeaching Trump will have the same aftermath as Clinton’s impeachment, that it would cause Trump to be viewed as a victim of circumstance and a scapegoat. Maybe that would indeed be the case, and I have no doubt that is why Pelosi and Schumer have delayed it for so long. Although, one could argue that Trump IS being impeached right now in all but name.
Still, there are many flaws in this idea, notably, the differences in the comparison and the fact you only use one other comparison. . First, Clinton was, despite demonization by his detractors, a very popular President. He was impeached for lying about a consensual act of sex, a type of lie that I am sure every American male has told more than once. His detractors will try to counter that and say it was perjury, but let’s be honest, this was a deliberate political move to get rid of him. Trump is very different. Again, while some will deny this, he is NOT as popular as he claims. Even the Rasmussen Reports (known for a clear Republican bias) give him a current Approval Rating of 46%, nearly 20 points lower than Clinton’s was a month before he was impeached. While Trump and his supporters insist that there is political bias due to “sore losers” upset over the 2016 election, there are actual many impeachable offenses Trump could be charged with, including refusing to comply with court ordered subpoenas, witness tampering, witness intimidation, bank fraud, wire fraud, tax fraud, conspiracy, accepting illegal campaign contributions, embezzling money intended for charity, nepotism, perjury, money laundering, and falsifying documents. There’s also the case that Trump, unlike Clinton, is starting to lose what support he has in the media (insulting Fox News for their coverage of Mayor Pete was unwise) and Justin Amash’s very public condemnation is only getting him renewed support from his own state. And to top it off, Trump’s speech today in the Rose Garden was, IMOHO, rather... undignified. There’s also one thing most everyone forgets, and that is Clinton was not the first time a President was impeached. The first time was in a case where the President was unpopular, unethical, and a blatant bigot. Yes, I'm calling Johnson a bigot, cause he WAS one. He was a bigot even by the standards of the time. He had plans for ethnic cleansing of non-whites, which fortunately, he never had a chance to enact. Even though Congress impeached him on a technicality, and it was clear they had political motives (meaning, everyone despised him) nobody cared. The unsuccessful push to impeach him didn't help his career at all. Much the opposite, it resulted in him losing what little influence he had as President, and the Republicans who voted for acquittal also lost reelection. So, what does all this mean? Personally, I do not think impeachment will gain Trump sympathizers or supporters among the voting public, although I do think he’s likely to lose some positive media support. |
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However not to re litigate the Clinton mess and focus on the actual topic, its worth looking at the actual polling of impeachment to get an idea of how the public would react. 40 percent of registered voters say Democrats should begin Impeachment, with Independents making up a plurality of 8 percent against impeachment, according to The Hill poll. https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/415760-voters-split-on-if-house-dems-should-begin-impeachment 37 percent support Impeachment against 56 percent against, with Independents only supporting it by 36 percent in an ABC poll. https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/31-trump-exonerated-mueller-report-56-oppose-impeachment/story?id=62659425 7 National Pollsters also polled on Impeachment, all of them have a strong plurality or majority against Impeachment. https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/05/polls-show-democrats-should-not-impeach-trump.html The case is clear the public does not want Impeachment, and if Democrats pursue this course of action, it will suck up all the air in the 2020 news cycle. It will place Democratic candidates for the President in the unenviable position of either supporting the radicals in the House or the public. Let's also not forget that even impeached there is no way he would be removed by the Senate! Impeachment only helps Trump in 2020. |
In fairness, a lot of the people who are against impeachment are likely taking that stance out of not wanting Pence to take over for Trump. Which is an understandable position to take, but also makes it hard to gauge exactly how the anti-impeachment side of things really feel about Trump as president. I'm sure we've all heard plenty of people say something along the lines of "I hate Trump, but if he gets the boot, we get Pence and he's even worse."
If Trump is impeached and makes it through it, it might renew some fervour within his already rather dedicated base but I'm not sure I see it causing his supportership to grow significantly. Granted, I don't think it will cause his support to shrink either. Trump is honestly a bizarre figure politically. Everyone has their minds made up one way or the other and I think it'd be very hard to dramatically shake up the way either side feels about him at this point. |
ALT, please read my post thoroughly. I stated my opinion that the lying under oath was the "excuse reason", much like how Johnson was impeached after he was pretty much manipulated into breaking the law. They actually sold tickets to the impeachment hearings, making it more like some carnival than an inquiry.
I see you did not address nor deny the impeachable offenses that I listed which could be brought against Trump. As for those polls you stated, I know about those; I voted in them, for "Against". I do not want him impeached personally, but I do not think doing so would make him surge in popularity. I personally do not think Pence is worse. While I despise him, I believe he is at least competent and has some understanding of how government works. More than Trump, anyway. I do not see Pence being ostracized by world leaders or sending out tweetstorms that serve no purpose but to annoy. I remember when concerns (and quite a few dumb jokes) were raised over Dan Quayle, and to be honest. I'd personally even prefer Quayle to Trump right now. Not knowing how to spell "potato" isn't nearly as bad as not knowing why we can't nuke a country into submission. |
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Not going to comment a whole lot on the whole "is Trump likely to win 2020" thing because I personally think people are more talking at each other rather than to each other in this thread, but one thing that should be noteworthy is that while there a lot of lessons to learn (and continue to learn) from 2016, I feel like people are overestimating Trump's chances a bit and treating him pretty much like the exception of politics when that doesn't entirely hold true for him. There are a lot of nuances that people either ignore or flat out don't know as to why 2016 happened when it happened, and this doesn't mean Trump is somehow going to be this highly favoured person going into the general from the get-go. I want to make one thing clear: this isn't to say that Trump is an underdog by any means, but going into your third term being underwater by double-digits can't bode well for re-election chances. That said, it's still rather rather early, so we'll see what happens in the coming months.
In regards to impeachment, I would also avoid reaching the absolute conclusion that it would 100% help Trump. It's possible that it would, but one possibility being glazed over here is that impeachment probably wouldn't change anyone's mind that wasn't already made up to begin with. You're not going to convince someone strongly for Trump no matter the evidence. The thing with the public being for or against impeachment also has to do with the evidence presented to them so far. In theory, allowing impeachment hearings would allow Democrats to pretty much gather all the evidence that they possibly can and hold endless public hearings and force the GOP to defend Trump and at worst, make them look bad, which will maybe change some minds (swing voters/reluctant Trump voters, probably). It'll be a purely symbolic form of impeachment, which of course means no removal from office, but that's a pill that those who aren't a big fan of Trump would have to swallow. Also, in regards to impeachment being framed as some sort of witch hunt to galvanize the republican base, I don't personally think that's the best way to view it, largely because his base is already behind him and mobilized; have we forgotten how often Trump holds his rallies and paints himself as the victim in every single one of them? I don't think impeachment would move the needle much in his favour at all, really. I suppose if you're a right-leaning independent but still on the fence, but in that case, were you ever going to vote D to begin with? The bigger question that needs to be pondered about is whether or not inaction rather than action would come to bite Democrats hard in 2020 as it can also be argued that it's giving Trump just as much ammo, as it places Trump in a position where he can say he can successfully do whatever he wants and get away with it without impeachment. Being painted as weak and cowardly in the 2020 elections isn't exactly going to be a good image for the Democrats as even if they try their best to focus more on kitchen table issues and things that matter more individually to voters (like healthcare and education, for example). At the end of the day, Trump is still likely going to be the GOP nominee and Democratic voter turnout is going to depend heavily on what kind of actions the Democratic house are going to take moving forward because they're going to have a lot to answer for if, as some say, they ignore their constitutional duty to do whats right for country. Needless to say, it's a tough position to be in. Going for impeachment and then failing it however, can at least be signaled as an attempt to hold Trump more accountable for his actions than investigations alone have done, and Democrats would, at the very least, have some useful attack ads to pressure vulnerable Republican senators that defend Trump should that be the case. Something to think about. |
I don't entirely agree with ALT, but I agree that most people probably won't buy it. I don't think they'll think any better of him as a result, it's just the Dems haven't really sold impeachment outside of their existing support base. There doesn't seem to be any really solid to charge him with, or if there is, it's drowned out by the hundreds of inane or unsubstantiated charges the media pelts him with on a day-to-day basis.
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Second, I think the public's reaction is probably more tied to the DNC and their media partners' inability to sell a plausible reason for charging him. See, with Clinton, there was something really obvious they could point to: he lied under oath during the course of an investigation. More than that, he admitted to it. As a result of both lying under oath and admitting that he lied under oath, he was charged with perjury (lying under oath) and obstruction of justice (purposely doing things that interfere with an investigation). He was acquitted (on paper, at least) because all 45 Senate Democrats and a smattering of Senate Republicans bought the argument that lying under oath didn't constitute the sort of high crimes that would justify an actual impeachment conviction. In reality, that was about 10% of it; the other 90% was that he was a Democrat and all the Democrats and a couple Republicans voted for him. If he was a Republican, all the Republicans and a couple of Democrats would have voted for him. I think the courts should handle impeachment proceedings. Anyway, with Trump, there's no admission of guilt, so that's a harder fight from the start. As far as what to charge him with, that's also going to be harder to sell to the public because the most popular media organizations have successfully deafened a lot of people to any potentially credible claims against Trump by constantly blowing out of proportion everything he does. There's a lot of people, both in the media and out, just latching onto whatever negative stuff they can find about him and going "SEE!? SEE!?" without really looking into it any further than that. They already have a conclusion and they're just looking for evidence to suit it rather than doing it the other way around. It's like how people who didn't like Obama latched onto the birth certificate thing because the situation was complex enough that if you looked at it at a glance, you couldn't immediately dismiss it, even if in reality it was just a bunch of nothing. Again, maybe there is something concrete, but with the media in the state it is, it's hard to reach that conclusion; they're doing a bad job of presenting their case to the public. The reason Trump's been successful deflecting criticism by saying "witch hunt" is because the media hunts him as though he were a witch. They need a better strategy. Quote:
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That does not exclude a political motivation, though. Of course the impeachment was politically motivated. That goes without saying. If it had been a Republican President doing the same thing, the vote would have been the exact reverse, even if the circumstances were identical. However, political motivation or not, he did commit a crime, even if that crime did not rise to the level of impeachment, and bringing charges against someone who commits a crime is a valid thing to do. Quote:
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For argument's sake, though, let's assume they're all true (and that's quite the assumption). I'm relatively certain none of these can be directly tied to Trump himself (or the Democrats wouldn't be so wishy-washy about impeachment to begin with), and even if they could, you'd have to tackle the same arguments Clinton's prosecution faced: what constitutes "high crimes?" Quote:
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I don't really think there are any raging fires about Andrew Johnson, the guy's been dead for 144 years. If you want to call him a bigot, I don't think anyone really cares enough to challenge it. Quote:
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Uh, Twocows, you really just proved my point, which was that the situations for Clinton and Trump are as different as night and day.
Before I sign off for tonight, I'll put this link from The Hill: https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/444972-poll-60-percent-say-trump-should-not-be-reelected?__twitter_impression=true&__twitter_impression=true |
We needed a shakeup of the system, a lot of people were campaigning for that.
The problem was, it's not coming from the left or from any aspect of economic reform. It's coming from fascism and the far right. Trump is a sign of how dark the world is going to become. |
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Economics is merely one lens to view things through,and viewing things only through that lens kind of misses the point.
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It terrifies me that he could win, but also if we impeach him now it will help him in some ways. Plus, he could easily win just because he won last time despite the fact that he didn't even win popular vote from the people. So it's not what we want, anyway, and it might not be next time. The whole thing is a very unfortunate joke at the moment, in my opinion, and I just want to move past the Trump era as smoothly as possible right now. If he wins again, hopefully we'll survive whatever wars and hate will come out of it. oof.
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My unaffiliated analysis is that unless the DNC puts Sanders up for the nomination, they’re handing Trump another four years.
Why? Media trust is shot. Even if other candidates appear to be genuine, their media backup is going to put into question everything they ever say. People have a reason to believe Sanders regardless precisely because they canned him last time around to everyone’s dismay. And besides, it’s not like the media tends to care about him anyway… not that it matters to his supporters. The old paradigm of Default Democratic Victory depends on people being compelled to some extent to vote, and most of the country (ergo, the moderates) are gravely uncompelled to do so. I think it’s pretty important to be looking ahead if there’s to be any real hope of stopping his reelection, but unfortunately that seems to be the last thing going on in party hands, and in the minds of those invariably on the left. The fact that so many people are still looking backward at impeachment is a sad cry to the state of affairs for this, and if it isn’t changed it may cost them another reelection. |
Two interesting polls out that could very well impact 2020 and how the public will view an impeachment inquiry or further investigations by Democrats.
“While a clear majority of the public supports getting more details about the Mueller report, just over half (52%) say that Congress should move on to other issues now that the investigation has concluded. Just 41% say that Congress should continue to look into concerns related to the inquiry. These results are similar to the public’s opinion last month just before the report was released...The poll finds that 39% of Americans feel that Trump should be impeached and compelled to leave the presidency while 56% disagree with this course of action.” https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_052219/ CBS news also found similar numbers among the public with only Democrats wishing to continue to investigate. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-news-poll-americans-say-trump-administration-should-cooperate-with-congressional-investigations/ |
I think the biggest problem facing Dems is that they just spent two years vilifying and irritating Trump and/or "not Hillary voters" by calling them racist or whatever. I know quite a few people who intend to vote for him again just because they are really pissed at the Dems. It also doesn't help that the Dems don't seem to have any good choices at the moment.
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