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Russia invades Ukraine
in case people wanted to talk about it on the forums
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Russia has also been spreading misinfo, saying they're preventing genocide and downplaying what they're doing.
Many leaders have already condemned Russia's actions and proposed consequences. |
More and more athletes are refusing to go and compete in Russia or are showing their support for Ukraine in various public ways. Even Russian athletes and celebrities.
That's so brave of them, I really hope they won't get mysteriously disappeared for this ): West media makes it look now like most of Russia's population is against this war. I'm not sure how accurate it is - Putin is pretty popular there among the general populace, isn't he? |
It's insane that I'm experiencing this live, in the year 2022. I'm still researching more to orient myself better with what's actually happening, but for sure I'm extremely terrified at the thought of another World War...
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I don't think another world war is imminent. Putin invaded the Ukraine simply because he knew he could. They are not part of the NATO, so the NATO can't do much about it but watch. His approach is very brutal and I'm pretty sure that this is done intentionally in order to discourage neighboring countries to distance themselves from Russia in favor of the western countries. Although, you could also argue that it may well lead to the exact opposite. Well, at the least for the Ukraine he may try to overthrow the old government and install a new pro-Russia one.
I don't think Putin wants another World War to happen. Russia is simply not well equipped enough to take on the entire western world. |
If Putin doesn't want another World War than he needs to stay the hell outta other countries.
Russian news is making it all seem like it's not THAT bad where as the rest of us see what's REALLY going on. Mist Russian people are like WTF and hate what Putin is doing. Honestly we the world need to stick Putin and Trump in a box together and then drop a bolder on it. They can leave together and it would be a much happier world. |
There's only so much I can say, I can't claim I'm knowledgeable on the matter of (eastern) European geopolitics, but I don't really get the feeling that this is going to lead to WW3
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Any chatter of WW3 is surface-level fear mongering coming largely from people totally disconnected from what’s happening (and distracts from the horrific situation which is actually happening in Ukraine).
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Another issue is a lot of people don't understand what all this is even about. I was watching the news for a good part of the day yesterday trying to figure out what in the hell this is even all about.
My cousin posted this on Facebook after she found it and explains in simple terms what's going on. Spoiler:
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It's something obviously nobody wants, but World War 3 is not totally irrational.
Putin has been using the threat of nucular warfare as a buffer to keep NATO at a distance. https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/putin-ukraine-nato-nuclear-weapons-1.6362890 The only thing that can be done is the sanctions currently placed on Russia. It's still considered appeasement. To which he may realize that he can continue to expand outwards past Ukraine, and as soon as he hits any member of NATO (take poland for instance), it becomes a global crisis. Historically speaking, practicing appeasement has already led to these exact circumstances. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10549911/Anthony-Blinken-possibility-Putin-goes-Ukraine-Sure-possibility.html While this is a situation with Russia and Ukraine, there will always be a domino effect. |
Is Ukraine the endgame? Does Russia suffer through protracted economic and international sanction just to take Ukraine? Ukraine has no significant natural resources, it only serves to make Russia "more secure" from the laughable idea of NATO aggression by extending the border away from Russia's southern border and having a stronger hold on Crimea. If anything Russia's attack on Ukraine only encourages NATO to act more aggressively toward it and more likely for Russia to suffer a military attack. And how do you, as Russia, guarantee that Ukraine will follow Russian interests? If you install a friendly government, you will have to occupy Ukraine. The Ukrainian people overthrew a Russia-friendly government in 2014, I have a hard time believing that a new pro-Russian government will survive for any significant amount of time without Russian military support especially after an aggressive, unprovoked war. But do they think they can occupy Ukraine?
Ukraine has a population of 44 million, one third the size of Russia. It would be similar to the prospect of the US occupying a country the size of Mexico. I don't think Russia has the resources to make that happen, it will bankrupt them. The Russian people do not want a war, and the economy isn't great either. I think what Russia can achieve is ensuring Ukrainian neutrality because a pro-Russian Ukraine is simply unsustainable. I think they ensure Ukrainian neutrality by creating a new federalized government that is set up to fail - that pits the more pro-Russian half of Ukraine against the pro-Western half. I think they might not annex very much territory in order to have enough of a pro-Russian presence in the new Ukrainian government. They are trying to make divisive and polarized country like a two-headed turtle that won't be able to agree on anything significant like joining NATO. If that's the endgame for Russia, that's a pretty shitty endgame. It only makes sense if they were really that much afraid of Ukraine joining NATO and saw NATO as an existential threat to Russia. But this only reinforces NATO's purpose as an anti-Russian bloc. And I think this destabilizes Russia in the long run, increasing the chances that it collapses and is dismantled for its resources. So as far as security goes, if Ukraine is all that they want, I don't think they've moved the needle at all in terms of making Russia more secure over the next 20-30 years. The other option is that Ukraine is just a launchpad for aggression against perhaps Finland first, then chipping away at NATO with Poland and the Baltic states to start, to revive Russian power in Europe. Russia would not be appeased after taking over Ukraine and continue its aggression into Europe behind its nuclear arsenal. In other words the endgame is not just Ukraine but domination of Europe as they had in the Cold War. This plan only works if Russia is able to keep Europe and NATO divided by continuing their dependence on Russian natural resources, mostly natural gas. When Russia asks for peace after a change in government in Ukraine and even not taking any territory from Ukraine, Europe must remain united in keeping Russian sanctions and saying no to Russian gas. You have to keep isolating Russia economically and politically no matter how little territory they take from Ukraine. If they threaten nuclear war over economic sanctions then let them do that, and the West should respond in kind. Russia might indeed threaten to use their nuclear weapons. But if that's how they are going to act, then this was always going to go poorly. A nuclear war is going to change the world for the worse. But if Russia is not sufficiently punished for what it's doing to Ukraine, you will see Russia encroach and take over Eastern Europe. Their nuclear threat will still be there. And now other countries around the world like Korea, Japan, Iran will consider getting nuclear weapons to protect themselves. We don't want nuclear weapons out in the world like candy. I don't think you should back down even if this means Russia makes the first move and starts a nuclear war. If you don't want to sacrifice your citizens in a Russian first strike - this is going to sound really bad - but you may have to hit them first if you have credible information that Russia is preparing a nuclear attack. |
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Of course, Putin's actions are dreadful and Russia needs to remove all their troops from Ukraine. Ultimately, the people of Ukraine are suffering and I hope this conflict ends asap! I'm going to share the Stop the War Coaltion's statement as I echo their sentiments in relation to the British government: Quote:
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tbh I don't think that there's realistically any way that this ends well
A peaceful/diplomatic solution is just not happening. Despite putting up more resistance than expected, there's not much reason to expect that the Ukrainian military by itself can expel Russia's forces from Ukraine. So then either: a) Russia successfully completes its invasion, and Putin does what he's going to do with Ukraine, things are still bad. b) The US/NATO changes their minds and sends troops into Ukraine. This would be highly likely to get Russia out of Ukraine, it's doubtful that Russia can handle the combined military force of several countries at once. But this then invites its own problem(s). The US (and really most countries, but the US especially) never does anything out of the goodness of its heart with no strings attached, it's always for its own interests and often at the expense of the people they're "helping". You stop Russia's invasion, but at what price? |
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It's borderline ridiculous when you get to the poo-pooing about great power conflict. The frame of great power conflict is precisely how Russia views things, and it's pretty obvious in terms of the way they talk about things as well as the kind of advice and ideology they are following. I wonder if the Stop the War Coalition is a left-wing organization. I don't disagree with their goals, peace and diplomacy is the priority, but I think some of the justification and reasoning serves an agenda more than providing accurate information. You shouldn't have to downplay Russia's responsibility and exaggerate the "provokacation" by the West in order to send an appropriate message. |
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They also have at least one member that has a show on Russian state-controlled television network RT UK. I'm sure they might have some decent members in amongst the rest, but whatever they call themselves, left wing and impartial they are not. Also I just want to say that my heart goes out to everyone that is affected by this terrible war <3 |
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I have honestly been stressed out watching these events unfold over the last couple of days. I do not support Russia invading Ukraine. Where my perspective departs from the narrative in the media of late, is that I don't think responsibility for what is happening is limited to Vladimir Putin. I think there's enough blame to go around, and that America shares some responsibility along with him. What I don't like is the mind games that the United States played with Russia, goading someone that had already invaded Georgia and annexed Crimea.
We knew that Putin was shouting from the rooftops he believed NATO forces were trying to encircle Russia as we expanded into Central Europea, and showed us multiple times that he was willing to use military force on countries, if they directly boarded his own and wanted to join NATO. So in a situation this explosive, we needed to assure this man that Ukraine, the country right beside him, wasn't going to be in NATO too. Being in NATO means you have all the other countries in NATO (30 I think) as your allies, and in a conflict that you don't work out diplomatically they can send in military forces on your behalf. So if Ukraine was in, that means troops to the border for Russia. I was talking to my dad about the NATO issue earlier this week. It was before Russia had launched a full-scale invasion, but he felt Ukraine had a right to aspire to NATO, if that is what they wanted. Who was Putin to tell them what to do? I understand the ethical argument he is making. I don't think the US is the best nation to actually make this argument, considering our history of undermining the sovereignty of other nations when their interests are in conflict with our own, but I digress. The trouble I have with US voicing support for Ukraine some day becoming a member of NATO is that this is entirely just on a principle. There's not a way we could really put this country in NATO, even if they want to be in. That's why I say we are playing games, and Ukraine is in the position of the pawn sadly. There are requirements you have to meet to be a member, and unfortunately, Ukraine doesn't have practically any of them. Ukraine does not have a healthy democracy, it cannot protect minority populations within the region, nor do they have good relations with countries outside of their border, and the current NATO members also don't want Ukraine voted in because they would all be sucked into fighting Russia if Ukraine was officially made their ally. So why even talk like this? Just to put Russia in it's place? All this does is open the door to geopolitical consequences over something we weren't ever serious about. It's nice to say that we never say never, but this was a matter of war. With so many lives potentially being the cost of the wrong answer, it was best to be cut and dry. Instead, the US should have just told Russia unequivocally, no, don't worry, Ukraine won't be in NATO. Pretending it may evolve otherwise, doesn't help Ukraine. It would have been best to have them identified firmly as a country that would at most always be neutral, than have the empty threat of their future alliance on the table. Now Russia has called America's bluff, and unleashed their arsenal on a devoping nation that doesn't have the protection of NATO. Now maybe nothing we said would have been enough for Russia, and they would have still invaded, we may never know, but it's just not true however that the US did all they could to try to stop this madness, the US should have agreed with Russia that Ukraine wouldn't be in NATO period. Interesting article featured on military.com that made the case for why it needed to be said in no uncertain terms that the Ukraine would not be in Nato, not now, and not later, and how it might have de-escalated the situation. https://www.military.com/daily-news/opinions/2022/02/23/why-cant-nato-admit-ukraine-has-no-chance-of-joining.html |
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I think the conversation hyperfocuses on what's happening in the present, but there's a series of events that bely an underlying trend of Russia wanting to be ascendant and willing to go against the European order. There was a time before the mid 2000s when it looked like Russia could co-exist with Western Europe but then Putin and the oligarchs happened who buy into the ideology of Aleksandr Dugin. Things being as they are, something like this was going to happen sooner or later. It just so happens to be now. Appeasing Russia isn't going to change how they have defined their national interest. They have decided to commit to an aggressive direction on the basis of a nationalist ideology without the tempering features of democracy to change or do it without violence. They can be whoever they want to be as long as they keep that within their borders. |
Former soviet countries joining NATO and being friendly with western regions is only a "threat" to Russia because Russian officials say it is, really. They're the only ones who see it that way. The ones caught in the middle are innocent civilians.
EDIT: Russian protestors are being arrested just outside the Kremlin: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/27/more-than-2000-arrested-at-anti-war-protests-in-russia Turkey to limit passage of Russian warships into the black sea: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/27/turkey-calls-russia-invasion-of-ukraine-war-eyes-sea-movements |
World War III isn't going to happen because this incredibly clumsy and chaotic invasion is proving that Russia is pretty much a random middling country with nukes. Their regular army would be wiped out by a professional NATO army within a week. They are using military radios from the 90s and have problems supplying their own troops right outside their own borders, for god's sake. Poland alone would wipe them out. And if they go straight for the nukes, you don't really have a war, it's something else.
This war started on the (utterly delusional) belief that Ukraine was a pro-Russian state that had been kidnapped by a US-appointed pro-western dictator who was barely holding on to power with the help of the US, and that the people and the army would immediately switch sides, grateful to be liberated. Instead, Zelenskyy now has a 90% approval rating and they are (rightly, and thankfully) bouncing the EU into becoming a more integrated block and opening the doors to them. Russia is being humilliated with every passing day without capturing Kvyv (US intel expected it to fall within 96 hours, we're past hour 100), they've lost more troops and materiel than the US did during its entire invasion and occupation of Irak, and the surprising unity and strong Western sanctions are collapsing the Russian economy into North Korea but with oil. It's an unmitigated disaster. It's what happens when you get drunk on your own kool-aid. |
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As a Russian-born person who left the country as a kid with her family in the late 1990s because of the living conditions, this hurts so much. I cannot even begin to express how awful I feel for the Ukrainians who may never be able to see their homes or families ever again. Saw some horrifying images recently that I almost wanted to click away from, but decided not to since this is the reality of war and it’s important to understand how awful it is.
Someone I know managed to flee to Poland and is doing okay right now, so that’s a huge breath of relief at least. But unfortunately her house is most likely destroyed. /: Regarding troops - there are a lot of young soldiers with little more than a few weeks’ worth of training being forced into this, yeah. I heard from someone who fled Ukraine that there were reports of Russian troops purposefully exhausting their fuel once they realized what they were being sent to do. Many of these people are kids who have no idea what is going on and are basically just being used as cannon fodder. This benefits no one except one man’s ego and is horrible. |
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And then there's the Ukrainian citizens suffering, losing their homes, loved ones, etc. This is so brutal. |
I feel sorry for them here in the uk we are giving thm weapons to use and food etc I wish we. Could do more
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Being born In Russia then leaving, it's pretty bad for so many people because they have to go through Chernoble and who wants to do that? I don't like what Russia is doing it's not fair and we just sit by and watch? This sucks.
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