The American Politics Discussion Thread
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September 10th, 2012 (7:09 PM).
Originally Posted by
Okay, so: three things I think are slightly surreal and might decide the election:
- Romney has pulled off from campaigning in the swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. That's 46 electoral votes, and Obama is leading in all of them, to the point that Pennsylvania already appears as "leaning Obama" in the RealClearPolitics map, which, as you know, works by taking all credible polls anywhere and calculating the average- Obama is ahead in PA (20 votes) by more than the margin of error. Just counting the non-swing states where Obama is safely leading, he has 201 electoral votes more-or-less secured. By giving up in these three other ones, it could put Obama up to 247. Out of 270 required to win.
- But let's look at another Swing state, Virginia. In the polls, Obama leads Romney alone by barely a point. But they aren't going to be alone in the ballot. Oh no.
Virgil Goode Jr., ex-republican, is also appearing in the ballot.
As the presidential candidate of the Constitutional party.
And the latest polls say that he's going to take a huge chunk of the votes from Romney. Making it Obama 49%, Romney 35%, Goode 10%. Virtually handing that state to Obama. That means 13 more votes. 260 out of 270.
- On top of this, the Republican National Convention was a slight failure. Romney got a 1% increase in polls during their week. Obama, so far, has recovered all that and added some extra 5% bounce in the latest Rasmussen/CNN/Gallup polls afetr the Democratic NC. So we can safely say that the 2012RNC was the first convention in several decades to not help their candidate in the polls. Awesome.
Don't forget Ohio! Right now he's got around a 5-6 point lead or so here, Ohio's unemployment & such has been falling for some time and the recovery has been accelerated here because of of the Auto Industry revival. Ohio has 18 electoral votes.
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