The American Politics Discussion Thread
View Single Post
November 4th, 2012 (11:31 PM).
You found a heart!
In New Mexico, the RCP average reads Obama 51, Romney 41, 8 Others. So Gary would have to almost double his projected results and get all those votes off Obama for Romney to have a chance.
Colorado is a Obama-leaning tossup (Obama +0.6 -not what you'd call a "blue state"), and, according to RCP, the "Others" option is polling at 4.2 so there you have Johnson.
And all the current polls already factor in the probability of the person showing up to vote- that's why in "registered voters" polls, Obama has a +4/+5 extra lead compared to the "likely voters" polls. Which he is also leading. Romney needs all the polls in the country to have consistently underestimated him (or overestimated Obama) to win.
Oh, we've made a mistake
We've lost our minds
We've lost our memory
Oh, what's it gonna take?
There's always something else
So occupy yourself
Yes kids, once upon a time I was an admin
Joined Mar 2007
View Public Profile
Send a private message to Ivysaur
Find all posts by Ivysaur
Find threads started by Ivysaur
Ignore Posts by Ivysaur