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  #15126    
Old June 16th, 2008 (10:16 PM).
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MetalMario MetalMario is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MetalMario View Post
Edit: I've written up a C program to do some brute force calculations on some of the shiny odds. Here's what I've found so far:

Shiny correlations to the Trainer ID DO EXIST, but they're miniscule. The worst "shiny ID" is 5185, with odds 523936 in 4294967296, or 0.9993 in 8192. The best shiny ID is 586, with odds 524620 in 4294967296, or 1.0006 in 8192.

These figures are created assuming that the game draws two successive random numbers, one for the lower 16 bits of the PV, the other for the upper 16 bits. I calculate "shiny ID," the portion of the trainer IDs that matters for the shiny calculations, by XORing the Trainer ID with the Hidden ID, then bitshifting the result down by 3 bits, yielding some value between 0 and 8191 inclusively.

These calculations don't consider the effects of things like Synchronize/Everstone. I'd repeat my calculations if I knew how they calculate PVs for Everstone breeding and such, but I don't, and I can see a multitude of ways they could have written them which would work.

Since 8192 and 25 are relatively prime, I don't expect to see any significant ID correlations there either.

When I did only a partial trial for a smaller range of PVs (the complete calculations take several minutes on my Athlon64 3000+), I got some shiny IDs which didn't yield any shinies, however. I shall try to see just how long the longest "drought" can last on any ID. This is going to be of interest for Emerald SRing, but not much else.

Edit2: Repeating the calculations using a theoretical model for Bold natures w/Everstone.

Edit3: Under my purely hypothetical Everstone/Synchro model, with Bold nature, the worst SID is 8127 with odds 491466 in 4294967296 (0.9374 in 8192--seems low but is still just 1 in 8739), and the best is 8191 with odds 573440 in 4294967296 (1.0938 in 8192). I will now repeat the trial with my Emerald's shiny ID--7277.

Edit4: My results for my Emerald ID: There are 524732 Bold shinies in the mix, so the odds are just slightly above average at 1.0008 in 8192. The longest drought in the stream lasts 102332 values (thank GOD those aren't SRs! D=), which corresponds to about a half hour of gameplay. This half hour of gameplay could be placed anywhere in the 828 CONSECUTIVE DAYS it takes for the RNG to repeat itself. It's very likely that there are other such long droughts, however. The shortest drought was 1 value, meaning that somewhere in there (or in multiple spots), there are two consecutive shinies.

So, to summarize (without techno sp33k), looks like my Emerald isn't cursed after all. All I need to do is keep on going, being sure to leave my game turned on for a random number of hours, and I might get my shiny.
Quoting my edits because people may miss the fact that I edited this post.

I had no idea that there were replies when I edited this totally important info into my post.

Summary of all everything: Everything I speculated about in the past is exactly true. I've just proven it. (Well, the last part remains speculation, but it's on more solid ground.)

Hidden ID value correlations DO INDEED EXIST, but they are quite small.
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  #15127    
Old June 16th, 2008 (11:55 PM).
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LordxDanswich LordxDanswich is offline
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    Quote:
    Originally Posted by MetalMario View Post
    Quoting my edits because people may miss the fact that I edited this post.

    I had no idea that there were replies when I edited this totally important info into my post.

    Summary of all everything: Everything I speculated about in the past is exactly true.
    Could you explain how the rng isn't affected when you breed on emerald? i wanna start breeding for a shiny chikorita on emerald but i'm not sure if it's worth trying.
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      #15128    
    Old June 17th, 2008 (4:48 AM).
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    Thebiggamer Thebiggamer is offline
       
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      I was only able to hatch about 150 eggs yesterday so that brings it to somewhere in the 300's still going strong for croagunk
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        #15129    
      Old June 17th, 2008 (7:24 AM).
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      The Graceful Assassin The Graceful Assassin is offline
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        so in a sense your secret ID plays a part in finding shinies? i have heard that the secret ID can always be revealed with AR. but thats pretty interesting though but it is all based on luck. still going for giratina. good luck everyone
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          #15130    
        Old June 17th, 2008 (11:58 AM).
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        Bombah! Bombah! is offline
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          Heya, me again.
          I tried the easy way, to catch a Magikarp (shiny of course ;) )
          with the rod.
          After 76 (!!!) Magikarps, I gave up.
          2 Hours later I tried again, but gave up after 45 -.-

          Am I doing smth wrong??
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            #15131    
          Old June 17th, 2008 (1:18 PM).
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          Kishu Inu Kishu Inu is offline
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            Hiya guys.

            I'm almost finished the game, when I can get my POKERADAR.

            It's just that I went through the game with three pokemon that are around level 40. I just can't beat the E4, even with the three faeries+Dialga. I put some happiny up, and I hope some retard will give me a hacked level 100 dialga. People did before, they probably will again. Then I'll be able to beat the E4.

            Still SRing for Turtwig on Pearl. 497 SR's and nothing.
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              #15132    
            Old June 17th, 2008 (2:23 PM).
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            DDD'SSCEPTILE DDD'SSCEPTILE is offline
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              Quote:
              Originally Posted by Bombah! View Post
              Heya, me again.
              I tried the easy way, to catch a Magikarp (shiny of course ;) )
              with the rod.
              After 76 (!!!) Magikarps, I gave up.
              2 Hours later I tried again, but gave up after 45 -.-

              Am I doing smth wrong??
              Sorry, 'fraid not. You aren't doing anything wrong... :(

              You better get used to it, because that's really all you can do is wait and keep trying. You may get it soon, or you might get it after the 500th one. Just never give up.

              It's still pretty easy compared to some of the other stuff.
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                #15133    
              Old June 17th, 2008 (2:48 PM).
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              Tabatha Tabatha is offline
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                Today Is cubone....But I'm getting really frustrated because my chains keep breaking around 20, the more frustrated I get the more careless I am with chaining too! I haven't successfully chained a shiny in about 2 weeks I'd really like a new one =( I have to go to work soon I'm hoping it will be a nice break and I'll be ready to go when I'm back
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                  #15134    
                Old June 17th, 2008 (3:10 PM).
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                It's Just Fufu It's Just Fufu is offline
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                  MetalMario, I'm telling you, you should Copy everything you just pasted, and ask for it to be put on the first page of every Shiny Discussion Thread as well as the Shiny Pokemon Lovers Club at Serebii...nice going with your work! I have a question, though, in relation to your game, does what you just said only apply when you have a Bold Synchronizer up front? And how did you gather the data anyway?

                  I'm chaining for Swablu.
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                    #15135    
                  Old June 17th, 2008 (6:52 PM).
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                  DDD'SSCEPTILE DDD'SSCEPTILE is offline
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                    Crud.............

                    I had 24 Misdreavus in the chain, I've been workin' on it ALLLLLL day, and it breaks at what should've been the 25th one.

                    Durn you Wurmple.

                    It's like I'm having to fight Buneary all over again, and it's the truth. One is just a tick less on the percentage of appearing....

                    What sucks is that the one that I went to should've been safe....


                    So, I'll try again. In a way, the Sandstorm's easier than this. That was just visual I had to beat.

                    This is odds.

                    THIS

                    IS

                    SPARTA!!!!



                    Oh also I support MM's theory that the shiny grass is just a placeholder for a shiny Pokemon to come up. Because during the Shinx chaining, I had a Static Pokemon up front, and then when I saw the shiny grass, I switched to my Synchro Adamant, and stepped into the grass.
                    The Pokemon I caught was Adamant. So it was either good luck or there's something behind that.

                    I just want my Misdreavus. This is like the 3rd time I've gotten a shiny but I've had to fight back.

                    1. Starly
                    2. Buneary
                    3. Misdreavus
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                      #15136    
                    Old June 18th, 2008 (5:14 AM).
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                    Thebiggamer Thebiggamer is offline
                       
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                      yesterday when I checked number of eggs hatched it had jumped from 633 to 799 and I'm still doing them today hoping for cro
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                        #15137    
                      Old June 18th, 2008 (12:11 PM).
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                      DDD'SSCEPTILE DDD'SSCEPTILE is offline
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                        k I started a Misdreavus chain last night to continue today and first patch I go to today is a Budew breaking it.


                        >_>

                        So now I'm waiting. I was thinking about just going for Gastly but apparently it's not much better at 10%, although those other areas yield nothing but Gastly (can't chain in it though).

                        I dunno what to do. I'll probably finish trying to disperse those hacked traded shinies I got and upload my new Pokemon onto PBR. I may train another before that though to make it more worthwhile.

                        But I want a good shiny Misdreavus! D=
                        I'll just have to get lucky.

                        Real lucky.
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                          #15138    
                        Old June 18th, 2008 (2:33 PM).
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                        Kishu Inu Kishu Inu is offline
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                          Yes! I beat the E4. Now I can finish my National Dex, start training, and chaining.
                          Heheh.

                          Over 1000 SRs for Turtwig. I have alot of spare time. XD

                          Sorry to hear that, DDD. I hope you have better luck in the future.
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                            #15139    
                          Old June 18th, 2008 (2:47 PM). Edited June 18th, 2008 by Thebiggamer.
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                          Thebiggamer Thebiggamer is offline
                             
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                            hatched 80+ today, no shiny yet, IO estimate 300-400 eggs

                            I just realized I haven't got heatran yet so after I finish with this damned frog I could head there and sr w/ a syncer
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                              #15140    
                            Old June 18th, 2008 (3:24 PM).
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                            MetalMario MetalMario is offline
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                            Quote:
                            Originally Posted by $ChuteOut$ View Post
                            And how did you gather the data anyway?
                            unsigned short pokerand(void)
                            {
                            static unsigned int randbuf = 0;
                            randbuf *= 0x41C64E6D;
                            randbuf += 0x6073;
                            return (unsigned short)(randbuf >> 16);
                            }

                            Remember this from the thread at Smogon? It's the Pokémon RNG, and I basically put it through the wringer. I generated personality values in the simplest way possible--draw one number for the lower 16 bits, then another for the upper 16. (I won't be 100% certain that this is the way the game does it until I've written my Secret Project of Doom #5, but it seems the only sensical way.) I also rearranged the shiny formula into a form where a "shiny ID" is calculated for each Pokémon, and there's another constant shiny ID associated with one's save file. Then generated a PV for each of the 4294967296 possible RNG states, saw which ID it generated a shiny for, and tallied the results.

                            The Synchronize results were for Bold. I could do them again for any other nature, but it would take several minutes for each run. (My algorithms aren't very efficient ) The way I calculate Nature is very speculative and is likely to be wrong. There are so many reasonable ways to do so, I just can't be sure. I divide the PV by 25 rounding down, then I re-multiply by 25 yielding some multiple of 25. Then I add the Nature Value onto it (for Bold, this is 10). If the value overflows, (ultra super rare, odds 1 in several million), I just set it to the nature value itself. LoadingNOW would know the actual algorithm that the game uses, but he is hording this information.

                            Looking at it now, my method doesn't consider that Synchronize is only effective 50% of the time and there might be some correlations there.

                            Progress: Still breeding Chikos. I should try to get a Storyteller back into my game. I don't know just how many eggs I've hatched. I've been approximating it with the number of Bold female Chikos I hatch--odds 52%. I don't have that number handy.
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                              #15141    
                            Old June 18th, 2008 (3:38 PM).
                            super onii chan's Avatar
                            super onii chan super onii chan is offline
                            I think I'm here to stay
                               
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                              uh fishings not going well =/ i did 1 and no shiny lol i got bored its not as intresting as pokeradar, i might be more determind to get it later on today hopefully
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                                #15142    
                              Old June 18th, 2008 (7:34 PM).
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                              BigfootTheUnbeatable BigfootTheUnbeatable is offline
                              Phillies World Champions 2008!
                                 
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                                Can I join? I have 9 shinies at the present time.

                                In my Gold version:


                                In my Sapphire verson:


                                In my Diamond version:

                                Currently hunting:
                                3. Voltorb in Emerald
                                2. Raikou in Crystal
                                1. Bagon in Sapphire
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                                  #15143    
                                Old June 19th, 2008 (2:43 AM).
                                Razer302 Razer302 is offline
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                                  I haven't read all the posts I have missed. But I have been doing some chaining for a shiny Buizel. Suki caught one before she even reached the second gym so I am after one as I think they look good.

                                  I will catch up on the posts when my internet is back at home which I am hoping is soon.
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                                    #15144    
                                  Old June 19th, 2008 (10:56 AM).
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                                  Tabatha Tabatha is offline
                                  A figment of your imgination
                                     
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                                    ARG!!!!!

                                    So I stayed up till 3am getting this pachirisu chain to 40 then both me and my ds went to sleep. I wake up and spend an hour resetting the radar and nothing....but I'm not ready to give up so I'm running back and forth in the grass and accidentally run to far and the wiggle patches go off my screen which leads to BROKEN CHAIN! now I'm just plain angry but I guess I'll go buy some more super repels and start a new chain QQ
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                                      #15145    
                                    Old June 19th, 2008 (11:45 AM).
                                    Bombah!'s Avatar
                                    Bombah! Bombah! is offline
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                                      Hey, is chaning only possible with the radar? Because I walked around in the house where you can find Rotom, and where only Gastlys appear.
                                      After 65 Gastlys (which is more than 40^^) I´ve saved and shut my ds down.
                                      So, only with radar?
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                                        #15146    
                                      Old June 19th, 2008 (12:00 PM).
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                                      The Graceful Assassin The Graceful Assassin is offline
                                      Dispose Of The Betrayer....
                                         
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                                        i have been shinyless for quite sometime now i need to chain something a bidoof if i have to. Beldum is my swarm but i am terrible at chaining in the sandstorm and with that catch rate id be better off doing something else. Good luck everybody
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                                          #15147    
                                        Old June 19th, 2008 (12:15 PM).
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                                        DDD'SSCEPTILE DDD'SSCEPTILE is offline
                                        GekkouKitsune : Shiny Master
                                           
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                                          Quote:
                                          Originally Posted by Bombah! View Post
                                          Hey, is chaning only possible with the radar? Because I walked around in the house where you can find Rotom, and where only Gastlys appear.
                                          After 65 Gastlys (which is more than 40^^) I´ve saved and shut my ds down.
                                          So, only with radar?
                                          lol..

                                          Only with the Radar, and only it short grass. Prof. Oak gives you a Poketch App when you visit the Pal Park after the E4 and it shows how many Pokemon you've chained and your 3 highest chains.


                                          You can still walk around in the Old Chateau or Lavender Town's Pokemon Tower for that matter, and go old-skool and wait for a shiny to appear. Because they still will, but you aren't chaining, and chaining's influences are with using the PokeRadar alone.

                                          So no "find 40 Gastlys without Radar and have better chances at finding one". In fact you could encounter 8192 wild Gastlies using the Random method and still not have a shiny. You just have to rely on pure luck and finding as many as you can within the shortest amount of time for full effect.

                                          Oh, yeah, if you have any questions, just ask, and maybe a fellow shiny hunter can explain further on this.


                                          As far as my progress goes....

                                          I'm almost up to 25 Misdreavus in the chain again. I despise Eterna Forest. It needs it's name changed to "bad grass selection".

                                          What's funny, is that the same grass formation that broke my chain the other day yielded a Misdreavus this time.

                                          Gotta try and get to 40.... it just takes so long being this careful..... I want to get to 40 because I have another dentist appointment tomorrow and when that's done I'm going straight to bed to avoid any pain I might have, just like last time. So no playing Pokemon unless it's a lot later that night.


                                          (I may have forgotten something or whatnot, I can't breathe because of allergies and I've been outside in the hot sun. :P )
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                                            #15148    
                                          Old June 19th, 2008 (1:39 PM).
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                                          Stronkadonk Stronkadonk is offline
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                                            Hey guys, I've been a fan of this Club for a month now and I have decided i would enjoy joining. So speaking of joining, can I? I have Pokeradar shinies such as shinx, luxio (evolved from one of many shinx), ponyta, electrike, weepinbell and victreebell (evolved from weepinbell). I also have shiny heatran and deoxys from GTS, seem legit. I am also hunting shiny Uxie in Pearl and will soon hunt the gamestop deoxys.
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                                              #15149    
                                            Old June 19th, 2008 (1:46 PM).
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                                            BigfootTheUnbeatable BigfootTheUnbeatable is offline
                                            Phillies World Champions 2008!
                                               
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                                              Can I join or what?
                                              I've noticed that the owner has'nt been on in like a year so is there like a co owner that can let me join. I'm about to have my brother trade me over his Shiny Totodile because he doesn't want it.
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                                                #15150    
                                              Old June 19th, 2008 (1:49 PM).
                                              Kishu Inu's Avatar
                                              Kishu Inu Kishu Inu is offline
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                                                Quote:
                                                Originally Posted by SRkid View Post
                                                Hey guys, I've been a fan of this Club for a month now and I have decided i would enjoy joining. So speaking of joining, can I? I have Pokeradar shinies such as shinx, luxio (evolved from one of many shinx), ponyta, electrike, weepinbell and victreebell (evolved from weepinbell). I also have shiny heatran and deoxys from GTS, seem legit. I am also hunting shiny Uxie in Pearl and will soon hunt the gamestop deoxys.
                                                I have read over this topic, the WHOLE thing, and I don't think traded shinies are aloud anymore. I'm new here, too. I've only posted about four times. Welcome.

                                                I gave up on RSing for Turtwig. I don't like Turtwigs, anyways. I'm RSing for Charmander on Fire Red instead. As for Diamond, I am waiting until tommorow and I hope I'll have a good swarm. Today I had swinub in route 217, I think. It's snowy there, so it's hard. Today, I'll spend the day EV training Kagayaku, my shiny Nidoran.
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