Scottish independence referendum

Started by Ivysaur September 7th, 2014 12:20 AM
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Ivysaur

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On September, 18th, the Scots will vote to end a 307-year-old union, and the polls have moved from a 30-point No lead to essentially a tie (2-point Yes according to YouGov, 4-point No according to Panelbase). Will Scotland become a new country and leave the UK as England, Wales and Northern Ireland? Can Westminster still offer a good enough deal in the few remaining days? Which are the challenges an independent Scotland would now face? This stuff is so exciting for a political junkie journalist like me, not going to lie.

More info: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/06/scots-radical-new-deal-save-the-union
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8957
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When it comes down to the vote day I don't think they will, If they do however They will more than likely find independence economically difficulty without the financial input from the rest of the UK they get at the moment, and may have to end the likes of free medical prescriptions and free University tuition fees.
If they do go independent from the Rest of the UK it changes the political landscape in England and Wales meaning the Labour Party lose the free and safe votes they normal get from Scottish voters.
From a Europe wide perspective it could be a catalyst for independence efforts across the continent (Ultimately Germany, Italy and even Spain and France are nations formed from smaller nations, Prussia, Bavaria, Catalonia, Savoy etc) but I don't think that would be all that likely.

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On one hand, I think the general trend amongst the Scottish people is a desire for independence, but a HUGE 30 point swing over the course of a few weeks raises a few alarms for me about the quality of the polling. I still think that they will vote for Independence though, but probably in a really close vote.

Ivysaur

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There are new polls due to be released today, but the shock value of Scottish independence being an actual, possible outcome, is certainly going to shock UK politics for a long time. Interestingly, one of the main reasons the Yes is surging (if we analyze Yougov's recent polls) is that labour supporters are moving towards independence as that would essentially mean they would be free of Conservative Governments for decades to come- the Tories have got a total of two MPs elected there over the course of the last 34 years, which makes it likely Scottish politics would be controlled by left-wing parties for the foreseeable future. On the other hand, this would mean the rest of Britain would be more likely to be controlled by the Tories, as Labour would lose about 40 Scottish MPs, meaning the English Conservative areas would gain much more weight in Westminster.

Of course, it's hard to imagine how Cameron would possibly be ever forgiven for presiding over the breakup of Britain. Even a Scotland-less Milibean's Labour would look a hotter shot for next year's elections against him if Yes happens.
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There are new polls due to be released today, but the shock value of Scottish independence being an actual, possible outcome, is certainly going to shock UK politics for a long time. Interestingly, one of the main reasons the Yes is surging (if we analyze Yougov's recent polls) is that labour supporters are moving towards independence as that would essentially mean they would be free of Conservative Governments for decades to come- the Tories have got a total of two MPs elected there over the course of the last 34 years, which makes it likely Scottish politics would be controlled by left-wing parties for the foreseeable future. On the other hand, this would mean the rest of Britain would be more likely to be controlled by the Tories, as Labour would lose about 40 Scottish MPs, meaning the English Conservative areas would gain much more weight in Westminster.

Of course, it's hard to imagine how Cameron would possibly be ever forgiven for presiding over the breakup of Britain. Even a Scotland-less Milibean's Labour would look a hotter shot for next year's elections against him if Yes happens.
Thats a good point about a "Tory" free Scotland, but I think much of the Left wing support we see in Scotland is more economic rather than socially liberal.
I would hazard a guess that the yes vote attracts both people on the left and the right in Scotland (For the Left (Mainly people from Edinburgh and Glasgow etc) its seen as a chance to wipe out the conservatives in Scotland and develop a new Social Democracy, whereas those on the Right (Mainly people from Rural Scotland, the Highlands and the Isles) will see Independence a chance to leave the (social) liberal polices of the UK (EU membership, large scale immigration, gay marriage, restrictive green laws/taxs and polital correctness etc, interestingly these are for the most part SNP policies).
So if there was to be a yes vote it would be interesting how parties would fare would the Scottish labour party became n new party in its own right, would a Scottish conservative party (with a new name) rise up and benefit from not being associated with Margret Thatcher (if it was Eurosceptic surely it could gain support from Scotland's Agricultural and fishing communities). Would the Green party enjoy success in the new political climate and what of UKIP it gained votes in the EU elections could its Scottish arm form a "SIP" party.

Ivysaur

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Well, new poll released... and it's picking up the same sharp no-to-yes swing:

TNS have a new Scottish poll out tonight which echoes the big swing towards YES than YouGov have been showing in their recent polls. Topline figures are YES 38%(+6), NO 39%(-6), Don’t know 23%(nc) with don’t knows, YES 49%(+7), NO 51%(-7) without. Taking just those certain to vote YES and NO would be equal.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8961

It's pretty clear that the debates last week did change a lot of opinions, and seemingly in just one direction. One week to go!

Also it's kind of fun that Cameron's only hope to convince Scotland are... Labour politicians. First Darling, now Brown! It's pretty sad, in some way.

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As a part Scotsman myself, I hope Scotland do vote for independence. To be quite honest, the only thing that UK really care about is those from down South. I wouldn't be surprised if the North of England may decide to follow suit. Sure enough, they get free prescriptions and free tuition fees, but the South of England really only care about themselves, not even other places like Wales or Northern Ireland.

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To be quite honest, the only thing that UK really care about is those from down South. [...] the South of England really only care about themselves
I hope you're referring to the Government rather than the populace here. If so yes I find this to be morbidly true. There's very much a "LONDON CITY IS ONLY CITY" attitude in the South (and perceived worldwide, unfortunately) and that's where the money and the power is and it's really frustrating. Don't get me wrong I much prefer the North but there is certainly a wider divide than we'd like between the North and the South. But I don't see why that's a reason for Scotland to leave the UK. Just because the grass isn't looking too great on this side doesn't strictly mean it'd be greener on the other side. I'm asking as I genuinely don't know - what would Scotland do if it were to leave the UK? What changes would it make to Scotland? It seems sort of spiteful to leave based on "they care about the South of England more" when Scotland does still benefit from being in the UK.

I wouldn't be surprised if the North of England may decide to follow suit.
Not a chance. Breaking England up is an absurd idea. Its focus is in the South, sure, but that doesn't mean that it doesn't function together as a whole. There is no point at all in the North of England splitting off and there would be so many drawbacks. Just because the North isn't in focus doesn't mean it should leave the UK, in the same way as Scotland.

Sure enough, they get free prescriptions and free tuition fees
Broke student here, tuition fees definitely are not free. They're higher than they've ever been. But if you're only referring up to the end of college, yes, that's a nice point. You're massively understating the value of the NHS though. It's not just "free prescriptions". It's a free appointment with your doctor if you feel ill, it's free testing and diagnostics, it's free visits to the A&E if you have an accident, it's free treatment and surgery if you become seriously ill, and it's free stay in hospital when you need it. It's more than just "free prescriptions" and it alone is worth staying in the UK for. (e: well, I say "free". It's obviously paid for in part by taxes but higher taxes beats becoming ill and not being able to afford your treatment)

My opinion on this whole thing? I wish it hadn't happened. If Scotland want to leave and can manage it, then cool, I guess, but regardless of the outcome the whole thing has started boiling up some very, very bad blood between England and Scotland. Before this I had never heard much more than passing comments about Scotland; now we've got people left right and centre whacking on about Scotland's weak points and if/if it wouldn't survive as an independent country and if/if it isn't capable of looking after itself and jesus christ. So many of the English are looking down on the Scottish right now because of this and either way it happens there's a significant amount of cultural damage done between the two countries already. So gj there guys.

Should Scotland leave, I think they should do it properly. No sterling, no royal family, no NHS, none of the benefits that they currently have being part of the UK. I'm aware though that some of the Scottish still feel entitled to these things even if they did leave which is raising the question with me of why they want independence in the first place other than just because independence. Which is what I think a lot of this is about. There's been a lot of circling around "but independence!!!" without working out any details. What happens to Scotland if it goes independent? What do they get and what goes? What about border control? UK companies based in Scotland? I feel like a lot has yet to be worked out and that maybe people don't know what Scottish independence would actually entail for them, and now that it's suddenly looking like a very real possibility people are finding themselves too deep into something they don't understand.
s͎̭̚ ̪ͭͩy͔͚̰̻̗̩̺ͣ́ͨ̌͡ ̩̳̙̖̖̺͡m̷̱̘͎̝̘̣͒͌͒̚ ͇͖̔̐̔b̝̪͚̞̦ͬ ̢͔̱̟̞̝͙̮͌̅̈̓̿̿i͐̈̃͊ͯ̎҉̟̠͓ ͕̥̣̪̠̃͑͞ỏ̵͕̠̱̬̬̞͛̋ ̨͈̻̱̟̱͓̪n͒̒͂͊̀ ̻̰̰̜̅̃͒̂͞tͭ̍̈́ ͙͇̘͕͍̜̖ͫ̌̊̿ͫ̂̀:̵̾͒̔͂ ̟͉̜̽͒͌͜p͎͇͎̦̺̙͒͆͋́ͅ ̨̠̠̘͚͖̺ͫ͛̎̉a̲͍̫͖͗̄ ͓͖͍̯̤̼͙̿̆̂̂̄r̬̟̮͖̥̼̆̓͑̃̾ͬ̉͟ͅ ̬̼̗͊͛a̛̯̮ ̮̬͍̙̮̤́ͪŝ͊ͬ̒̎̃ ̧̝̮͎͙͆̓ì͈̹̻̱̾͝ ̘͉͕̭̊ͤ̉̓tͩͯ̉̐ͨͬ̚͏̻̺̖̮ ̞̘͂̋̋ͯ͑ͦ͗e̞͔̎̇ͫ͊͗
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In relation to the North South Divide, I think its not as simple as that Cornwall is techanacally the UK's poorset county (http://www.cornishguardian.co.uk/Cornwall-UK-s-poorest-area/story-20444842-detail/story.html) and you don't get more southern than Cornwall. Cheshire is one of the UK's richest counties and is in the North of England, Aberdeen is quite well off (thanks to North Sea Oil Revenue) and its hard to get more Northern than Aberdeen.
It pretty subjective really yes Tumbridge wells is a nicer place to live than Oldham and Kensingon and Chelsea are more desirable than Grimsby.
But on the other hand the Lake District is far nicer than Tower Hamlets and York is far more pleasant than Slough.

Back to Scotland if they were to leave how would it work out militarily, Some of the British armys best and most famous regiments are Scottish (The Royal Scots, The Black Watch, the Royal Scots Greys etc) would they become part of Scotland's army and any UK or Commonwealth citizens serving in those regiment have to leave.
Also RAF bases like Lossiemouth where interceptor squadrons are based or Royal Navy bases like HMNB Clyde where the Nuclear submarines make port whould the RAF and Royal Navy have to leave. NATO would not be amused about this losing a Interceptor base and Nuclear Sub base in the Strategic positions they are in.

Mark Kamill

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Because I don't know much about this situation, is there anything good in them for going independent? Aside from the fact that it historically makes some sense.

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Should Scotland leave, I think they should do it properly. No sterling, no royal family, no NHS, none of the benefits that they currently have being part of the UK. I'm aware though that some of the Scottish still feel entitled to these things even if they did leave which is raising the question with me of why they want independence in the first place other than just because independence. Which is what I think a lot of this is about. There's been a lot of circling around "but independence!!!" without working out any details. What happens to Scotland if it goes independent? What do they get and what goes? What about border control? UK companies based in Scotland? I feel like a lot has yet to be worked out and that maybe people don't know what Scottish independence would actually entail for them, and now that it's suddenly looking like a very real possibility people are finding themselves too deep into something they don't understand.
They've worked out a lot more than you think, of course English controlled media doesn't report it. Royal family? Don't want them anyway. NHS? Scotland has had a separate NHS since it was formed. Border control? It stays the same as it is, open borders for EU citizens.

The only real issue is the currency once, and I imagine if Scotland were to become independent the UK would be more open to discussion on a currency union. They're giving a flat out no right now because it deters people supporting the independence, that doesn't mean they'll be so opposed to it in the future. Besides, Ireland dropped sterling successfully under much harsher circumstances from our beloved UK, and the euro is an option also.

It's being portrayed as poorly planned and as if it were decided on a whim (because of course the media is controlled by the English) but that's simply not true. If you do some independent reading you will see that there is much more planning than we are led to believe. Of course there is planning. Who would suggest independence and not plan this things? They have so much to gain and nothing to lose, so of course they're planning to the best of their ability.
We carve up our imaginary lines all the time, countries are created, disappear and redrawn constantly throughout history. Yes it is a challenge, but for it to be so impossible for a 21st century first world country with the support of the EU? I don't think so.


Now do I think it's going to be totally positive? Not so sure. A party that reflects the interests of the Scottish people and places those interests first? Of course that is a resounding yes.
But I would be very surprised if a new Scottish government is anything like that. They will throw a few bones for the people to chew on, and then continue doing what politicians do best, lying and stealing. The independence is probably a simple justification for a new greedy government to emerge. I don't know too much about them, but we will see how they are truly once they have power.
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Being English I hope Scotland votes no purely because it would be weird not having them part of the United Kingdom and I generally believe we are better united as one.

I think the best option for both parties is to stay united but give more powers to the Scottish Parliament going this route would be better for Scotland as there would be no need to re-apply for EU, NATO, UN and so on also keeping the pound as their currency.

But if Scotland do vote yes best of luck to them, I just hope no party offers them to use the pound under a currency-union as I would never vote for any party that agrees to that ever again.

On another note the Better Together campaign has been shocking instead of going on about currency this currency that go on about WHY we are better together, what alternatives could be offered why was more powers never mentioned before. Its even more shocking this past week since Yes took the lead.

Cameron should resign if Scotland vote yes he will always be remembered as the man who ended the union

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The stock market with regards to anything related to Scotland is going wild lately. Next ten days could have a dramatic impact on the outcome, and at this sort of point, because of the massive build up that's gone into this bid for independence, it could swing either way. If you fancy an exciting time to invest in Scottish stock, now might be a good time. Could make big gains if you play your cards right! Or big losses if anywhere goes bust...

For the rest of the UK, it's probably bad news for anyone unfond of the "right wingers", because a hell of a lot of Labour votes (even though they're just slightly more liberal) lie in Scotland. Even if David Cameron gets the flak for not keeping Scotland with us, anyone turning against him would be offset easily by the removal of 40 Labour MPs in Scotland. Since there's only one Conservative MP, it's not going to hurt them very much at all. That's where Labour's MO comes into play here. It's a massive loss for Labour if they lose Scotland, and a loss all the same with a silver lining for the Tories if Scotland leaves under a Conservative government.

Any English people that ARE getting very involved in this are not helping matters. There's either a sense of complacency that Scotland need England, or an venomous attitude towards Scotland that quite frankly would make me want to detach myself from England if I could. As I'm not Scottish or psychic, I'm sitting nicely on the fence here. It should be an interesting ride.
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I could see if there was a yes vote but Scotland hung around for a year or two before going independent (they want to so they have time to set things up). The Labour party winning in 2015 then using that chance to once again change electoral boundaries to be even more in Labour's advantage to componsate for the lost safe Scottish Electorate.
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I could see if there was a yes vote but Scotland hung around for a year or two before going independent (they want to so they have time to set things up). The Labour party winning in 2015 then using that chance to once again change electoral boundaries to be even more in Labour's advantage to componsate for the lost safe Scottish Electorate.
If Scotland did vote for independence then generally the general elections should either be moved to 2016 or people living in Scotland should have their voting rights revoked because generally it would be unfair for Scotland to interfere in the UK's government they will not be a part of. When who's to say Scotland will not just go stuff the UK we will vote UKIP in ever seat.

Plus then the Scottish MPs who were voted for by Scotland will no longer be part of the government come 2016, where one party had won a the elections would could quite possible become a hung parliament position overnight.

Even thou I want Labour to win the next elections

Ivysaur

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If Scotland did vote for independence then generally the general elections should either be moved to 2016 or people living in Scotland should have their voting rights revoked because generally it would be unfair for Scotland to interfere in the UK's government they will not be a part of. When who's to say Scotland will not just go stuff the UK we will vote UKIP in ever seat.

Plus then the Scottish MPs who were voted for by Scotland will no longer be part of the government come 2016, where one party had won a the elections would could quite possible become a hung parliament position overnight.

Even thou I want Labour to win the next elections
Sadly, elections cannot be moved anymore. If there is something worth mentioning this Parliament has passed (other than a bunch of tax increases and spending cuts) is a law to make sure elections are held every 5 years unless the PM quits and nobody is appointed to replace her or a majority votes to remove the Cabinet and call for new elections.

In other words, if anything, the most likely outcome would be Cameron quitting/being fired and early elections happening before end of year/January or so. There is no chance of Parliament being extended past May 2015. Worst case, a quick clause could be written so Scottish MPs leave once Scotland does, though who knows what that would cause to any majorities.

As of yet, according to UkPollingReport's poll average, the expected election result would be Lab + 33, so a loss of ~40 Scottish MPs would hurt them badly. Of course, we'd have to see how badly the Tories end up paying for a breakup of the country under their watch. Also, if Cameron resigns, I can see Boris leading the party in the new elections, but that's political fiction for the time being...

Today, about 60 Lab MPs are heading to Glasgow to beg their voters to vote no. Meanwhile, Farage is doing his thing: "I know Scotland hates England but uhhh Brussels are worse!!!!".

_______________________________

Also, an interesting fact: when Ireland left the Union and became an independent country, even dumping the British Monarchy and becoming a Republic in the process, they stayed in a currency union with the UK, using the Pound Sterling, for a grand total of 57 years, from 1922 to 1979. So it's hard to see why doing the same exact thing with Scotland would be so impossible and unacceptable.
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As of yet, according to UkPollingReport's poll average, the expected election result would be Lab + 33, so a loss of ~40 Scottish MPs would hurt them badly. Of course, we'd have to see how badly the Tories end up paying for a breakup of the country under their watch. Also, if Cameron resigns, I can see Boris leading the party in the new elections, but that's political fiction for the time being...
_______________________________

Also, an interesting fact: when Ireland left the Union and became an independent country, even dumping the British Monarchy and becoming a Republic in the process, they stayed in a currency union with the UK, using the Pound Sterling, for a grand total of 57 years, from 1922 to 1979. So it's hard to see why doing the same exact thing with Scotland would be so impossible and unacceptable.
Boris leading a party whilst it would be hilarious to watch it would be a complete shambles the man knows nearly nothing about politics and hes more of a peoples person.

The difference between Ireland in 1922 and Scotland today is back then the world economy was not as linked as it is today, you only have to look at how the markets reacted to one poll that had a yes lead. Add to the fact in England there is a rise of anti-europe growing you only have to look at how well a currency union worked out for Europe.

Pretty much any party that currently offers a currency union would be dead in the water to UK voters
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On the point about the 2015 elections the honest thing to do would be for the winners of that election to stand down and the party to offer no replacement or a universal house of common vote for one after Scotland was to fully leave.
Of course this would never happen as the election winner would not be willing to sacrifice there term.

On the Ireland point the Republic of Ireland had less of a shared heritage with the UK than Scotland does with the UK effectively Ireland was a colony of the British empire (granted it was seen as a part of the UK but was treated as a colony in the was it was administrated) whereas Scotland is an equal partner in the UK i.e. England and Wales merged with Scotland peacefully into one nation state in 1707 and shared assets and overseas colonies.
Whereas the Ireland was gained by in many cases bloodshed and conflict.
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Wanted to do a bit of extra reading just now, loved to see some of the craziness I found:
Uh oh, NK backs Scotland!!
John Lewis gets even more unaffordable.
No banks, so all your money evaporates!
Your economy is ruined! Businesses don't like you!!
Losing the queen isn't the only thing, the flag goes too!!!!
What wil happen to the queen? Some say she might melt. Unconfirmed.

The media at it's finest.

Boris leading the tories... half of me wishes this happens so I can witness the chaos that ensues, but I fear for the lives that will be affected by this craziness.

Ivysaur

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Wanted to do a bit of extra reading just now, loved to see some of the craziness I found:
Uh oh, NK backs Scotland!!
Your headlines are wonderful, but that link in particular, for a second I had to double-check to make sure it was an article in the Telegraph and not Private Eye.

I cannot believe I'm reading the line "North Korea is rich in natural resources and we like the taste of Scotch whisky, so we can be beneficial to each other" in an actually serious newspaper.

...even if it's the Telegraph.
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Well the votes today, we should know the outcome by tomorrow!!!
I feel whatever the outcome tonight people tomorrow will be falling out with each other, potential riots.
The voting is going to be really close and won't really make a great mix at all half the country will want out of the union whilst the other half want to be part of the union.
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I feel whatever the outcome tonight people tomorrow will be falling out with each other, potential riots.
The voting is going to be really close and won't really make a great mix at all half the country will want out of the union whilst the other half want to be part of the union.
Yeah I agree in the long run no good will come from it, its just brewing tensions even in the rest of the UK people may behave unpleasantly to Scottish people if it happens.