Pendraflare

Age 32
Male
Pennsylvania
Seen July 30th, 2021
Posted March 29th, 2021
6,263 posts
9.8 Years
(I didn't see a thread like this made, so I decided it would be a good idea to. If there is one, this can be locked.)

So, i'm sure some of you may know about all this talk with the "economic collapse" that's been a thing, and how we're headed for a financial crisis even worse than the Great Depression or when the economy collapsed in 2008. It has to do with how heavily the US government is in debt, with trillions owed, and that many are receiving government subsidies. They're saying that the US dollar will lose its value and there will be no currency to provide, and telling us that we should stock up on supplies before this happens. I'm not gonna provide links, but you can Google it and find out different things on what have to be said. I heard rumblings about it earlier in the year, but yesterday I saw another commercial about it, and it looks like it's nearing sooner than we thought.

Now, sorry if this isn't much to say, but i'm sure you guys will have more to mention. I can't say much about it myself, as I don't feel like reading all of what there is to be said about the economy collapse. And I feel like i'm stuck in denial, but at the same time i'm scared that it'll come to fruition and life for a long time is going to be horrifying. How about you? Are you afraid too or do you think it'll pass quick? Discuss.
Azurilland | Twitter | Nuzlocke Forums
May someday resurface in full. We'll see what happens down the road!
Age 31
Male
USA
Seen July 23rd, 2020
Posted March 11th, 2018
132 posts
14.8 Years
I'm someone who is into economics quite heavily.

So is there an impending economic crisis around the corner? Yes, at least for the US and many other nations from Europe and Japan as well. In fact, people are already living in the midst of it, and recent economic data for the US shows that it's slipping into a recession again.

However, should you fear it as a horrible doomsday scenario? No. There will be serious social upheaval and displeasure, yes, but economies can recover extremely fast, at rates.

I'd also like to note that we might see a general shift in what's desirable. The demand for people such as Engineers will likely soar alongside a move to increase production of currently more viable when outsourced.
People in the US might see a drop in taxes and a downwards pressure in the regulatory system.

Keep in mind, it could be worse than the great depression without leading to devastation. It's simply a cycle of fixing resources which are currently allocated in the wrong areas. It sucks and comes with a lot of pain but in the end the economy should be able to heal and even surpass its current and prior heights.

Somewhere_

i don't know where

Age 23
Male
somewhere (duh)
Seen June 5th, 2019
Posted March 17th, 2019
Another reason is China will have the superior currency by 2020 if I remember correctly. Even the U.S.'s allies are going on board with this. Does this mean the U.S. will go to war with China as a result? War gives jobs and could help the economy if its down...so would the war really be that bad?

Golurks Were Meant to Fly

NERF THIS!

Male
America, East Coast
Seen October 4th, 2021
Posted August 5th, 2020
1,273 posts
11.3 Years
I can definitely see it happening again. According to the Gini Coefficient, disparity levels are at like the highest they've been since the Great Depression for the US. I could definitely see another bubble bursting type of thing like in the 2007/2008 financial crisis. However, if there's one thing we learned from the Great Depression, it was how to avoid the same result even with a similar set up. They can freeze bank accounts and the stock market (like they did in the 2007/2008 crisis iirc). As for the national debt... yeah no clue what's gonna happen with that. However, the global economy is so connected that it's for the most part in everyone's best interest for everyone else to stay afloat. I do think there will be another recession, but I think we have ways to mitigate the negative impact of it. Of course, change to our overall economic policy would be the best course of action but I can't see that happening unless things get REALLY bad.
Stream Sawayama
Age 31
Male
USA
Seen July 23rd, 2020
Posted March 11th, 2018
132 posts
14.8 Years
Another reason is China will have the superior currency by 2020 if I remember correctly. Even the U.S.'s allies are going on board with this. Does this mean the U.S. will go to war with China as a result? War gives jobs and could help the economy if its down...so would the war really be that bad?
Ever more the existence of war seems to be fading to a yesteryear phenomenon. None wish to unleash such a plague because there would be no gains vs tremendous losses. All it would do is break the back of the US economy and receive universal condemnation.

So yes, The Yuan could surpass the USD in terms of value and trust but that's more to do with the own faults of policies implemented in the US which could be fixed by removing a lot of that which prevents businesses from starting up, let alone flourishing.

Pendraflare

Age 32
Male
Pennsylvania
Seen July 30th, 2021
Posted March 29th, 2021
6,263 posts
9.8 Years
Well, see, one article I saw the other day that talked about all of this said that the government has been saying the economy is recovering, but that it's not true as they're not providing good evidence. It also said that the economy is already on the verge of Great Depression level bad, which really isn't anything to take lightly.

edit: http://www.anamericanwarning.com/2015/02/economic-collapse-2015/
Azurilland | Twitter | Nuzlocke Forums
May someday resurface in full. We'll see what happens down the road!

twocows

The not-so-black cat of ill omen

Age 32
Male
Michigan
Seen February 19th, 2023
Posted April 30th, 2021
4,307 posts
14.2 Years
The way I see it, most of us really know very little about macro-economics. Even those who do know a whole lot are in disagreement with others who also know a whole lot. Trying to predict what's going to happen to the economy without a huge base of knowledge to work from is a pointless endeavor.

It seems like there's a not-insignificant chance that something may happen at some point (and there's also a good chance it won't). I think the correct course of action is not to worry too much about it, but to be reasonably prepared for it should it happen. I don't mean investing all your money into survival equipment or any such thing, just have a plan for if things go south and make reasonable preparations to that effect. Worrying too much about the future puts a drain on your efforts in the present, but ignoring the future completely is a good way to end up in a really bad spot when it comes.
VNs are superior to anime, don't @ me

Kanzler

naughty biscotti

Male
Toronto
Seen April 22nd, 2022
Posted March 11th, 2022
5,957 posts
14.8 Years
I think the consensus is that the economy is recovering, but not as much as expected. I don't think that means it's on the verge of another collapse, though.

Anyways, why not provide links? I have a feeling that they might not be the most reputable.

Also, about the Yuan to USD: the exchange rate fell from 6.9 Yuan to one dollar in 2008 to 6.2 to a dollar today. Not a big rise in the value of the Yuan against the dollar. Which is why going to China to shop would still be profitable for me, unless prices have gone up :(

Ivysaur

Grass dinosaur extraordinaire

Age 32
He/him
Madrid, Europe
Seen 2 Days Ago
Posted April 5th, 2023
21,076 posts
16.2 Years
The Yuan will not overtake the dollar as long as China keeps the exchange market controlled in order to favour their exports. But, even so, exchange rates don't really mean anything alone- the value of the Euro has been dropping as Europe was recovering (from $1.50 to just under $1.10), which was good as it helped European exports and was affordable thanks to the collapse in oil prices; in fact, these past weeks, fears of turbulence in the Eurozone have cause the value of the Euro to go UP, gaining some cents on the dollar to $1.13. This is to say, the value of the Yuan can go up or down or sideways and that will mean different things depending on how every other variable goes. If, suddenly, the Yuan goes to parity with the dollar, that would essentially cause the entire Chinese export industry to go out of business in a matter of days, unless prices collapsed all over China, which would imply an implosion in the Chinese economy, or the US had an absurd hyperinflation that can't possibly happen without a civil war breaking out in the US or, idk, a volcano blowing up half the country or something.

In fact, the world economy is taking a step back these days because of a cooldown in the Chinese economy, sending a chilling blow to the US, and the Greek Elephant in the European Room, which (I hope!) will be kicked down the road for a few more months next week. I still hope my grandchildren will see it fixed, although I wouldn't bet on it.

It has to do with how heavily the US government is in debt, with trillions owed, and that many are receiving government subsidies.
The US is in danger... because their tax revenue isn't high enough. The US owes trillions, alright, but those trillions mean just 3/4 of the total size of the US economy. The US can afford to owe trillions because every year they make even more trillions. Of course, the Government doesn't raise enough tax money to use that proportion (because it doesn't really matter how much money the entire country makes if the Government only gets a small portion of about 30%). Still, it's manageable, as the interest rate is hilariously small, likely to be beaten by inflation in the long run. Either way, the solution is a matter of ideology. You can argue that the Government should raise more tax money so it can afford all those services, as it happens in Europe (where most countries can even afford to run a public health system!), or you can argue that the solution is taking away those subsides and leaving a bare-bones State and hoping that poor people will get random charity instead of stable Government subsidies to be able to eat, and that private companies will run everything more efficiently (an argument that any Londoner will tell you from experience doesn't work for health and transport- but chances are even the English Conservatives would be "liberals" in the US). But that is a completely ideological issue- a country can pay their bills by having with a bigger Government that takes more taxes, or you can close the Government and have no bills to pay and let everybody live in a wild jungle. The solution is somewhere in between, the question is where, and it will depend on the ideology of the person answering.

They're saying that the US dollar will lose its value and there will be no currency to provide, and telling us that we should stock up on supplies before this happens. I'm not gonna provide links, but you can Google it and find out different things on what have to be said. I heard rumblings about it earlier in the year, but yesterday I saw another commercial about it, and it looks like it's nearing sooner than we thought.
A currency can "lose value" without anything at all happening in a country. Yesteryear a US citizen would make $4000 a year and a burger would cost 20c. Now that same dude will make $40,000 [actually more, income after inflation has actually gone up in the last 50 years, but this is just an example] and burgers are $2. The result is that said person can still buy the same exact amount of burgers. The danger is when inflation overtakes salaries, or when inflation goes out of control in a very short amount of time. Argentina, for instance, has had a total inflation of 800% over the last 10 years. That's bad. In turn, cumulative inflation in the US has been of 21%- far more manageable. Central banks all over the world consider that an inflation rate of 2-3% yearly is actually good, as it encourages spending without making saving impossible and allows to reduce the value of the debt without wrecking the prize system in the economy, which is what happens when inflation goes bad: with 40% a year (Argentina- I have been there!), you literally cannot save and companies cannot give a value to their products or know how much money they need to put apart to restock their inventories, as they don't know how much things will cost in a few weeks' time when they sell out their current stock because the benchmark of value (the currency) has lost it all and fluctuates randomly every hour.

That is FAR from what's happening in the US. A yearly, predictable and constant inflation of 2-3 percent is manageable and won't disrupt anything, as companies can keep that estimation into account when providing for the future. Hyperinflation, though, only happens in countries whose entire economy is in shambles or after a war that has ruined half the country. As you can see, the US is suffering from neither and chances are it won't in the near future. People have been rumbling about "the collapse of the value of the dollar", but actually, last month, the value of the dollar increased by 0.2% nationally -the US are in deflation!- and by far more in the international exchange rates (again, a year ago a dollar bought you 0.70€, now it buys 0.90€).

But scaremongers have been predicting hyperinflation every week since ever. 2010, 2011, 2012, 2014, etc. The truth is, a currency is worth what the goods produced in a country are worth and what the Government can do to manage the value of their currency. As long as oil is measured in dollars (even oil produced by Venezuela!), the US has an economy worth trillions, exports keep flowing and internal commerce goes up and the Federal Reserve is ready to do gambles like buying bonds, reducing interest rates and printing money when the banks don't have cash in hand, chances are people will keep wanting to own US dollars to buy the sort of things you need US dollars to buy (see: oil, but also technology and essentially anything made in the US anybody might want to buy). And if people want to buy things you need dollars to buy, the dollar will keep their value, simple enough.

I'd ask you to name some of the hyperinflation scaremongers so I can analyze their claims.
Age 28
Male
Oregon
Seen September 24th, 2018
Posted July 3rd, 2018
17,520 posts
13.1 Years
The Yuan will not overtake the dollar as long as China keeps the exchange market controlled in order to favour their exports. But, even so, exchange rates don't really mean anything alone- the value of the Euro has been dropping as Europe was recovering (from $1.50 to just under $1.10), which was good as it helped European exports and was affordable thanks to the collapse in oil prices; in fact, these past weeks, fears of turbulence in the Eurozone have cause the value of the Euro to go UP, gaining some cents on the dollar to $1.13. This is to say, the value of the Yuan can go up or down or sideways and that will mean different things depending on how every other variable goes. If, suddenly, the Yuan goes to parity with the dollar, that would essentially cause the entire Chinese export industry to go out of business in a matter of days, unless prices collapsed all over China, which would imply an implosion in the Chinese economy, or the US had an absurd hyperinflation that can't possibly happen without a civil war breaking out in the US or, idk, a volcano blowing up half the country or something.

In fact, the world economy is taking a step back these days because of a cooldown in the Chinese economy, sending a chilling blow to the US, and the Greek Elephant in the European Room, which (I hope!) will be kicked down the road for a few more months next week. I still hope my grandchildren will see it fixed, although I wouldn't bet on it.



The US is in danger... because their tax revenue isn't high enough. The US owes trillions, alright, but those trillions mean just 3/4 of the total size of the US economy. The US can afford to owe trillions because every year they make even more trillions. Of course, the Government doesn't raise enough tax money to use that proportion (because it doesn't really matter how much money the entire country makes if the Government only gets a small portion of about 30%). Still, it's manageable, as the interest rate is hilariously small, likely to be beaten by inflation in the long run. Either way, the solution is a matter of ideology. You can argue that the Government should raise more tax money so it can afford all those services, as it happens in Europe (where most countries can even afford to run a public health system!), or you can argue that the solution is taking away those subsides and leaving a bare-bones State and hoping that poor people will get random charity instead of stable Government subsidies to be able to eat, and that private companies will run everything more efficiently (an argument that any Londoner will tell you from experience doesn't work for health and transport- but chances are even the English Conservatives would be "liberals" in the US). But that is a completely ideological issue- a country can pay their bills by having with a bigger Government that takes more taxes, or you can close the Government and have no bills to pay and let everybody live in a wild jungle. The solution is somewhere in between, the question is where, and it will depend on the ideology of the person answering.



A currency can "lose value" without anything at all happening in a country. Yesteryear a US citizen would make $4000 a year and a burger would cost 20c. Now that same dude will make $40,000 [actually more, income after inflation has actually gone up in the last 50 years, but this is just an example] and burgers are $2. The result is that said person can still buy the same exact amount of burgers. The danger is when inflation overtakes salaries, or when inflation goes out of control in a very short amount of time. Argentina, for instance, has had a total inflation of 800% over the last 10 years. That's bad. In turn, cumulative inflation in the US has been of 21%- far more manageable. Central banks all over the world consider that an inflation rate of 2-3% yearly is actually good, as it encourages spending without making saving impossible and allows to reduce the value of the debt without wrecking the prize system in the economy, which is what happens when inflation goes bad: with 40% a year (Argentina- I have been there!), you literally cannot save and companies cannot give a value to their products or know how much money they need to put apart to restock their inventories, as they don't know how much things will cost in a few weeks' time when they sell out their current stock because the benchmark of value (the currency) has lost it all and fluctuates randomly every hour.

That is FAR from what's happening in the US. A yearly, predictable and constant inflation of 2-3 percent is manageable and won't disrupt anything, as companies can keep that estimation into account when providing for the future. Hyperinflation, though, only happens in countries whose entire economy is in shambles or after a war that has ruined half the country. As you can see, the US is suffering from neither and chances are it won't in the near future. People have been rumbling about "the collapse of the value of the dollar", but actually, last month, the value of the dollar increased by 0.2% nationally -the US are in deflation!- and by far more in the international exchange rates (again, a year ago a dollar bought you 0.70€, now it buys 0.90€).

But scaremongers have been predicting hyperinflation every week since ever. 2010, 2011, 2012, 2014, etc. The truth is, a currency is worth what the goods produced in a country are worth and what the Government can do to manage the value of their currency. As long as oil is measured in dollars (even oil produced by Venezuela!), the US has an economy worth trillions, exports keep flowing and internal commerce goes up and the Federal Reserve is ready to do gambles like buying bonds, reducing interest rates and printing money when the banks don't have cash in hand, chances are people will keep wanting to own US dollars to buy the sort of things you need US dollars to buy (see: oil, but also technology and essentially anything made in the US anybody might want to buy). And if people want to buy things you need dollars to buy, the dollar will keep their value, simple enough.

I'd ask you to name some of the hyperinflation scaremongers so I can analyze their claims.
I've read that China, Russia, and other countries want to create an alternative to the Petrodollar so who knows what will happen if they succeed.
I'm currently working on some novels. If you're interested you can read them here:
https://www.wattpad.com/user/ImperialSun

Ivysaur

Grass dinosaur extraordinaire

Age 32
He/him
Madrid, Europe
Seen 2 Days Ago
Posted April 5th, 2023
21,076 posts
16.2 Years
I've read that China, Russia, and other countries want to create an alternative to the Petrodollar so who knows what will happen if they succeed.
Russia produces 10 billion barrels a day, China 4. In turn, the US produces 9, Saudi Arabia 9 and Canada, 3.6. As long as the three latter stick to the dollar, then it'll be fine and dandy if Russia and China look for a new currency (some oil is traded in Euros already), but they won't replace the dollar. In short, you can't replace the dollar as long as the US is the biggest (or the second-biggest) trade and economic hub in the world. As long as over 300 million people keep using dollars for their day-to-day transactions and exports, you can't destroy it- same reason why the Euro has proven so resilient despite their crisis, same reason why the Pound is still so valuable despite the implosion of the British Empire. As long as hundreds of millions of people use a currency for high-value trade, the currency cannot just "crash" or "be replaced" overnight.

Netto Azure

Kiel

Age 30
Male
Alistel, Vainqueur
Seen November 17th, 2021
Posted September 29th, 2021
9,467 posts
15 Years
Sometimes I feel the hyperinflationists just want hoodwink people to sell gold. Like Went said, they've been crying wolf since 2008 how much the Fed is "debasing the dollar" and can't even do some self-introspection after such assertions didn't pan out.

Anyway, I've been trying to keep tabs on economic discussion on the US since the Great Recession in 2008 and well twocows is correct in saying that the discussion on predicting the future is a bit futile, as sometimes ideology colors ones perception of how the economy is functioning.

Still, I'd argue that the aftermath of the recession has wrought some distressing results, i.e. large financial institutions in the US growing ever larger and oligopolistic in nature.

But yeah, Went/Ivysaur had much of the monetary policy analysis down pat, but let me re-emphasize how debilitating this almost deflationary status is for the advanced economies. The US and Europe is looking more and more like Japan.
Age 28
Male
Oregon
Seen September 24th, 2018
Posted July 3rd, 2018
17,520 posts
13.1 Years
Sometimes I feel the hyperinflationists just want hoodwink people to sell gold. Like Went said, they've been crying wolf since 2008 how much the Fed is "debasing the dollar" and can't even do some self-introspection after such assertions didn't pan out.

Anyway, I've been trying to keep tabs on economic discussion on the US since the Great Recession in 2008 and well twocows is correct in saying that the discussion on predicting the future is a bit futile, as sometimes ideology colors ones perception of how the economy is functioning.

Still, I'd argue that the aftermath of the recession has wrought some distressing results, i.e. large financial institutions in the US growing ever larger and oligopolistic in nature.

But yeah, Went/Ivysaur had much of the monetary policy analysis down pat, but let me re-emphasize how debilitating this almost deflationary status is for the advanced economies. The US and Europe is looking more and more like Japan.
The oligopolistic growth was going on before the recession, the Great Recession mearly sped things up along with the shift of replacing humans with machines.
I'm currently working on some novels. If you're interested you can read them here:
https://www.wattpad.com/user/ImperialSun

Netto Azure

Kiel

Age 30
Male
Alistel, Vainqueur
Seen November 17th, 2021
Posted September 29th, 2021
9,467 posts
15 Years
The oligopolistic growth was going on before the recession, the Great Recession mearly sped things up along with the shift of replacing humans with machines.
You should check these out too:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_process_outsourcing
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knowledge_process_outsourcing
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/04/us/last-task-after-layoff-at-disney-train-foreign-replacements.html

It ain't only manufacturing getting outsourced to machines and low wage countries. White collar jobs are also. Hence why all this discussion about the so called skills gap and veneration of STEM education is suspect to me.
Age 28
Male
Oregon
Seen September 24th, 2018
Posted July 3rd, 2018
17,520 posts
13.1 Years
You should check these out too:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_process_outsourcing
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knowledge_process_outsourcing
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/04/us/last-task-after-layoff-at-disney-train-foreign-replacements.html

It ain't only manufacturing getting outsourced to machines and low wage countries. White collar jobs are also. Hence why all this discussion about the so called skills gap and veneration of STEM education is suspect to me.
Yeah, I recently heard about that too. It should worry us...especially since machines that can fix themselves are being developed. That would mean even those who would fix those machines won't be needed. Then there are those calling for Visas for those skilled in STEM even though here in the US there are college graduates in those fields who have difficulty finding a job...
I'm currently working on some novels. If you're interested you can read them here:
https://www.wattpad.com/user/ImperialSun