How rare is it to pick up a 10km egg?

Started by High on Drugs August 16th, 2016 2:51 PM
  • 6382 views
  • 65 replies

Lunar

Age 24
Male
England
Seen September 16th, 2020
Posted September 15th, 2020
It seems like they've become a lot rarer, towards the start of the game there was a time where I had three in quick succession, but now I hardly get any. Niantic probably increased the rarity of them.

VisualJae

Spam Hyper Beam for days

Male
New York, NY
Seen October 27th, 2017
Posted September 12th, 2017
1,126 posts
7.6 Years
It's completely random.

From levels 1 to 26 (cumulative 900,000 experience), I only hatched six 10km eggs.

But from levels 26 to halfway to 30 (cumulative ~900,000 experience), I hatched 27 10km eggs. And I have another ready to hatch in about 0.8km as I'm typing this.

This player I bumped into several times is about the same level as me and he's hatched 55 10km eggs.

You're level 20 and you've gotten a total of two 10km eggs.

My mother is level 16 and she's gotten seven 10km eggs already (but only hatched two).

How many eggs have you hatched lifetime? Do you bulk hatch eggs? I slowly whittle out all 2km eggs from my inventory, hatching them one by one with the infinite incubator. As soon as I have eight or nine 5km and/or 10km eggs, I purchase eight incubators and incubate all eggs. It's how I often end up hatching 15-20 eggs per day and I'm at 420 total eggs hatched as of this moment.
Male
Seen November 5th, 2016
Posted September 24th, 2016
338 posts
6.8 Years
I've always found that if I hatch loads of eggs so I have 5-6 free spots for eggs then hit the pokestops to get back up to 9 eggs then 1 of those 6 I pick up will be a 10k, particularly if on a stop I pick up 2 eggs on of them will probably be the 10k
There are many forces in this world.
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Some we can see and some we can't.
Some we know about and others we are yet to discover.
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Female
Seen October 25th, 2016
Posted October 25th, 2016
10 posts
6.8 Years
I've always found that if I hatch loads of eggs so I have 5-6 free spots for eggs then hit the pokestops to get back up to 9 eggs then 1 of those 6 I pick up will be a 10k, particularly if on a stop I pick up 2 eggs on of them will probably be the 10k
Interesting. Thanks for the tip.

Meganium

memento mori

she/her
Houston, TX
Seen February 1st, 2023
Posted February 1st, 2023
I have not gotten a single 10K egg since I was level 10. It's so weird. I only have 5k eggs right now and haven't gotten a single 2k since I was level 15.

maybe it's level based?

VisualJae

Spam Hyper Beam for days

Male
New York, NY
Seen October 27th, 2017
Posted September 12th, 2017
1,126 posts
7.6 Years
It is completely random.

If you're not into spending money in the game (meaning limited incubators), then prioritize hatching as many 2km eggs as you can as fast as you can so you can visit PokéStops to grab more eggs.

More eggs hatched = more new eggs you can obtain.

I'm well past 400 eggs hatched lifetime and a little less than 10% of those eggs were 10km ones.
Male
Seen October 5th, 2017
Posted September 3rd, 2017
346 posts
6.8 Years
I've always found that if I hatch loads of eggs so I have 5-6 free spots for eggs then hit the pokestops to get back up to 9 eggs then 1 of those 6 I pick up will be a 10k, particularly if on a stop I pick up 2 eggs on of them will probably be the 10k
Fortunately this is nonsense originating from confirmation bias :)

10km eggs are quite rare, and its random, but the human brain despises randomness and will make up nonsense just to find an explanation that is different from randomness, even a really bad explanation is somehow preferred over randomness.
Male
Seen November 5th, 2016
Posted September 24th, 2016
338 posts
6.8 Years
Fortunately this is nonsense originating from confirmation bias :)

10km eggs are quite rare, and its random, but the human brain despises randomness and will make up nonsense just to find an explanation that is different from randomness, even a really bad explanation is somehow preferred over randomness.
Lol you taking this far too seriously, and since doing it the way I do works well for me I intend on continuing doing it.
But seriously though put your phone down for 5 minutes and chill out.
Male
Seen October 5th, 2017
Posted September 3rd, 2017
346 posts
6.8 Years
Lol you taking this far too seriously, and since doing it the way I do works well for me I intend on continuing doing it.
But seriously though put your phone down for 5 minutes and chill out.
If you hatch multiple eggs in quick succession, and then have 5-6 free slots, and then visit pokestops, you will get the majority of your eggs that way, including the majority of your 10k eggs. You will also be getting your 5k eggs and 2k eggs this way.

So while the method objectively does not work, it will continue to work for you. It is basically like a person taking homeopathy and believing it works, because the majority of small medical issues like a seasonal flu or a stomach ache or a bruised knee will get better on their own. But because the homeopathy-believer will always take homeopathy with it, it is misattributed to homeopathy.

Now the reason i point it out is because others might believe you, and there is a bad side-effect: Your belief, if taken seriously, implies that you can only get 10km eggs if you spend a lot of money on incubators. Like having 9 incubators running most of the time, which translates into a cost of around 10 euros every 15 kilometers.

In reality it is random, and you will ALSO get the 10k eggs if you work with the eternal incubator and maybe only occasionally buy one incubator from the shop.

VisualJae

Spam Hyper Beam for days

Male
New York, NY
Seen October 27th, 2017
Posted September 12th, 2017
1,126 posts
7.6 Years
Like I mentioned earlier, it's all random. If you think of 10km eggs as winning tickets to a scratch off lottery, then you simply improve your chances of "winning" by obtaining more tickets.

Of course, you'll also inevitably collect more "losing" tickets as well, in this case 2km and 5km eggs.

This is why I asked in my first response here whether or not the OP bulk hatches eggs/buys incubators. OP hatched 20 eggs by level 20. I can hatch 20 eggs in one day. The more eggs you hatch, the more new eggs you'll see, the more opportunities you have in seeing a 10km one. Mind you, just because you have the opportunity doesn't mean you'll actually get anything. Why? Because it's random. It's as simple as simple can get.

Completely random. It's fact. Not opinion.
Female
Seen November 17th, 2016
Posted September 21st, 2016
150 posts
6.8 Years
Well, I'm level 20 and have only ever caught 2 10K eggs. The first was early on, at about level 7, and the second was at level 19. I haven't been counting exactly but I would estimate that I have probably collected about 30 eggs in total, so going from that, the rate would be about 1 in 15, but of course a much larger sample size would be needed to say anything for sure.

I think they're the right level of rare for now
Male
Seen November 5th, 2016
Posted September 24th, 2016
338 posts
6.8 Years
I get that it's random and it's still to early to have enough data but I will give examples of what I've seen so far.
When I've had 8 empty spots for eggs I always get at least 1 10k egg from pokestops, I usually get a 10k egg when I get 2 eggs from the same stop.
So with 10 empty spots with a minimum of 1 10k egg means that in that situation I have more than 12.5% chance per egg
When I have 4 empty spots I generally find that betweem 1 in 2-3 times in that Sitaution I get a 10k egg and again it's usually when I get 2 eggs from the same stop so with 4 empty spots I have about 10% chance per egg.
In the last week I've not had any extra incubators so only been picking up eggs once at a time and with hatching 4 eggs a day it took me 10 days to get a 10k egg. So in that case a 2.5% chance of a 10k egg
Like I said it's still too early to say definatively that the more eggs you collect in short time the better chance of a 10k it has been clear that most the 10k's I've picked up has been when I've picked up 2 eggs from the same stop. More empty egg spaces increases the chance of that so it's definitely worth investigating further.
There are many forces in this world.
Some are good, some are bad.
Some we can see and some we can't.
Some we know about and others we are yet to discover.
Don't let anyone tell you anything is impossible.
For there is no one in this world you can truly know for sure.

Sheep

She/Her
Australia
Seen 4 Hours Ago
Posted 15 Hours Ago
39,267 posts
16.6 Years
Seems super random. I got a few at the early levels but haven't gotten another since like... lv. 12 I want to say, and I'm almost lv. 20 now. /: But I'm very happy with the Pokémon I hatched from them!!
Male
Seen May 17th, 2017
Posted May 17th, 2017
73 posts
6.8 Years
There is no way that the distribution of eggs is "Statistically Random". If it were truly random, we would see a more equal distribution of eggs when you go to a Poke Stop.

For example:

Consider a 6-sided dice. Each roll of the dice is considered a random event. But over several rolls, the occurence of numbers starts to equal out.
Male
Seen October 5th, 2017
Posted September 3rd, 2017
346 posts
6.8 Years
There is no way that the distribution of eggs is "Statistically Random". If it were truly random, we would see a more equal distribution of eggs when you go to a Poke Stop.

For example:

Consider a 6-sided dice. Each roll of the dice is considered a random event. But over several rolls, the occurence of numbers starts to equal out.
Its not random in the sense that you have a 33.333% chance to get any of the egg types.

It is random in the sense that you get (rough guesstimates not based on actual data) you get 10% 10km eggs, 55% 5km eggs, and 35% 2km eggs.

And it does not matter if you use 8 purchased incubators and the infinite one, or if you dance around the pokestops in circles before you spin them, or if you send away a weedle each time you hit a pokestop, or if you just use the eternal incubator and use it to hatch out whatever you feel like. This kind of randomness just spawns superstitious beliefs based on confirmation bias, you can see the same with gambling addicts in Las Vegas with their lucky charms and lucky numbers and lucky hats and blowing on the dice and stuff. Humans have a way out, reason, but in animal testing scientists managed to induce superstitious behaviors in different animals, even pigeons and chickens.
Male
Seen November 5th, 2016
Posted September 24th, 2016
338 posts
6.8 Years
Have you read through every line of code to confirm that each egg is 100% random with nothing at all that could influence it?
The one thing I've learnt so far is talk to as many people as possible and see what results they get for things, come up with an idea to test then get some results. Some theories turn out to be wrong (but may help you come up with the correct theory) but assuming that there isn't anything you can learn won't help you at all.
Like I said I don't have enough data yet to prove or disprove my theory that getting more than 1 egg from a pokestop gives better chance of getting a 10k egg, for now all I can do is keep hatching eggs then at some point i will have enough data to say I'm right or I'm wrong
There are many forces in this world.
Some are good, some are bad.
Some we can see and some we can't.
Some we know about and others we are yet to discover.
Don't let anyone tell you anything is impossible.
For there is no one in this world you can truly know for sure.

VisualJae

Spam Hyper Beam for days

Male
New York, NY
Seen October 27th, 2017
Posted September 12th, 2017
1,126 posts
7.6 Years
Have you read through every line of code to confirm that each egg is 100% random with nothing at all that could influence it?
The one thing I've learnt so far is talk to as many people as possible and see what results they get for things, come up with an idea to test then get some results. Some theories turn out to be wrong (but may help you come up with the correct theory) but assuming that there isn't anything you can learn won't help you at all.
Like I said I don't have enough data yet to prove or disprove my theory that getting more than 1 egg from a pokestop gives better chance of getting a 10k egg, for now all I can do is keep hatching eggs then at some point i will have enough data to say I'm right or I'm wrong
Yes, there is code for eggs, more specifically PokéStops in general. When you spin a Stop, it runs down a list of items and pumps them out one by one depending on the rolls. Balls, potions, berries... eggs.

You can probably find something on Silph Road or whatever else theorycrafting/datamining site. It's where all the talk of random and total luck comes in.
Age 33
Male
Seen 3 Weeks Ago
Posted 3 Weeks Ago
1,567 posts
9.8 Years
All I can say is I got my 2nd 10km egg after hatching about 6 eggs in my party and not going to another pokestop in that time. So about a week.


Usually when I hatch 1 egg at a time and then get a new egg immediately after it's always a 5, sometimes a 2. I guess if I get a 10km egg while having 8 eggs in my party I could believe it was random. At this point and time I think 10km eggs are more likely when getting multiple eggs in a row as opposed to one at a time.


But a couple things need to change, Eevee needs to be removed from 10km eggs, in no way shape or form should Eevee be in 10km eggs over Kangaskhan or whatever.


Also I don't believe the pokestop chaining thing, usually if I have an open spot or more, I get an egg from the next pokestop until I hit 9 eggs again. Which is why it's impossible to have less then 7 eggs at a time.

VisualJae

Spam Hyper Beam for days

Male
New York, NY
Seen October 27th, 2017
Posted September 12th, 2017
1,126 posts
7.6 Years
But a couple things need to change, Eevee needs to be removed from 10km eggs, in no way shape or form should Eevee be in 10km eggs over Kangaskhan or whatever.
Places exist where Eevees are extremely rare. I have friends who live in different regions where they've only encountered one Eevee while playing the past month.

I've found four Lapras after playing since day 1 and I'm level 30. One of my friends who lives in New England complains that he finds too many Lapras, already having obtained four of them before he hit level 12. I bet he wishes they wouldn't hatch from 10km eggs sometimes.

What about Pinsirs and Scythers? I've seen some people here being ecstatic they finally found a Pinsir. Meanwhile I'm sitting on nearly 200 Pinsir candies because they're like vermin where I live.