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Old April 2nd, 2006 (11:25 AM). Edited July 7th, 2006 by husk1442.
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Guide To Prediction

By: husk1442



I. Intro
II. Move Sets
III. Timing
IV. Surprise
V. Long Term Thinking
VI. Recording
VII. The Enemy (how to predict)
VIII. Safe Predictions
IX. Conclusion
X. Real World Application


I. Intro


Prediction is the art of knowing what your opponent will do before they do it. This said, it is obvious that with a good team you can win every game if you know exactly what your opponent will do. This is what separates the good from the mediocre.

II. Move Sets

Knowing standard movesets is key to winning. If you know what your opponent has you can switch to the appropriate counter. Having a good move set is part of prediction. If your metagross has HP:grass then you can predict the switch to Swampert and 2hko it. If you don’t have it, you can’t. This does not mean you can’t predict the switch to Swampert. You can still earthquake on the switch but, your prediction is futile, Swampert isn’t being hurt that badly by your efforts. A

III. Timing


Lets say your Zapdos has HP: Ice and its being walled by your opponents Celebi. You probably don’t want to HP: ice the celebi on the switch because your prediction will be futile. Yes, you will do more damage than T-bolt but, you won’t be killing it. In the future when your opponents will probably send out Salamence or Flygon against your Zapdos thinking you have HP:Grass, then you will be able to ohko it. Timing also refers to lets say: when you reveal to your opponent you have a tyranitar and it knows dragon dance. If you reveal it late game when your opponents counters have died, you will probably win the game.

IV. Surprise


If your opponent doesn’t know your set, they can’t predict you. Many good players use unorthodox sets and win easily because no one has any idea what they will do. That’s not to say standard sets don’t have their merits but, everyone gets owned by a Gengar with fire punch every once in a while.

V. Long Term Thinking


Long Term Thinking is knowing what you and your opponent wish to accomplish down the road.
Example:

Team 1 (me): Meta, Pert, Celebi, Starmie
Team 2 (opponent): Zapdos, Milotic, Dugtrio, Snorlax

If my opponent has HP:grass zapdos and I’m holding it off with celebi, I’m pretty sure I don’t want to use celebi to wall his milotic incase of a ch. I also don’t want to switch celebi into zapdos every time because he might swap to dugtrio quickly. The logical thing to do is to every once in a while absorb a t-bolt with pert and then take the HP: grass with meta. That way he won’t swap in dugtrio when I do send out celebi. Now that I have stopped my opponent’s long term goal, what is mine?

Mine would probably be to kill dugtrio and beat his team down with Celebi. Another thing I could do is kill snorlax and sweep his team with starmie. Either way it will require a lot of predicted switches. I don’t want to try and sweep with meta or pert since he has 3 and 2 counters for them respectively. I could sacrifice pert to bring zapdos into K.O. range and start rolling heads with starmie.

After my opponent’s Zapdos is dead, we must think and revise our idea of his strategy. He could just let milotic die and use snorlax+dugtrio to beat my team, which is quite viable. Snorlax curses against starmie and beats on celebi, a predicted dugtrio can take out celebi and metagross. So now the important thing for me to do is to kill his snorlax. So I don’t want meta to die as it is my only sure way of killing lax. Since, I don’t want it to die I’m not going to randomly switch into snorlax with meta. What I might try to do is:

~Use starmie to kill milotic
~Use celebi to seed snorlax and dick around
~Let dugtrio kill celebi
~Send out meta against the HP:bug’ing dugtrio
~Meteor Mash his snorlax and then either explode if not cb or just keep mashing if I am
~Dugtrio comes in on snorlax's death and kills meta
~Use starmie to beat dugtrio

Seeing as how some logic just turned a bad situation into a good one, your opponent could probably use this same technique against you.

VI. Recording

Writing the HP, moves, and pp of your opponents pokemon in a notepad document is extremely useful. That way you know just how long you need to stall to win, or if your DDtar can sweep yet. Writing everything down means you don’t miss a thing and eventually when you get good enough you can estimate their evs based on how fast they are or by how much damage they do.

VII. The Enemy

Standing in your enemies shoes is probably the greatest way to outright know what they will do. Most people don’t realize that their opponents don’t want to do max damage to their team. Opponents (like you) want to do maximum damage to their opposites team at the lowest risk to themselves. Knowing this, you can know what they will do based on what you would do if you were in their situtation.

VIII. Safe Predictions

A safe prediction is a good one.
For example:

Lets say you use a non-cb meteor mash on regice, bringing it into the red zone. Then you want to use eq because it will kill regice and because if your opponent does switch out they won’t be switching to something that will get destroyed by meteor mash. Which probably means something weak to eq if they haven't already sent it out. This will get you a lot of kills.

IX. Conclusion

If you know what, where, and when your opponent will act you win the game. Taking safe predictions is probably the best way to win. Just remember to think about the consequences of your prediction. You obviously don’t want to predict a switch and surf when your opponents DD’ed mence is up against your 55% milotic.

X. Real World Application

http://www.pokecommunity.com/showthread.php?p=2176546


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Old April 2nd, 2006 (2:10 PM).
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The timing bit was a little hazy. Maybe something more like:

You can fool around with your opponent a little bit by screwing with their own prediction. It can feel a bit uncomfortable and a little unorthodox, but when you get used to it, it works.
Let's take into example your Zapdos vs. your opponent's Celebi. Let's also say your Zapdos has Hidden Power [Ice]. And let's also say your opponent has something like Salamence or Flygon backing up Celebi. If you were to repeatedly use Thunderbolt, instead of HP Ice, of course you would just be walled by Celebi, but most likely your opponent will switch to Flygon or Salamence, assuming you have HP Grass, and want to attempt a chance to set up an attack. Little did they know you have a little surprise just for them.

Also on the movesets tidbit, you should include that it's important to know standard sets, so you know what to expect from a certain pokemon switching in.
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Old April 2nd, 2006 (5:18 PM).
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both parts edited, thanks
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Old April 3rd, 2006 (9:19 AM).
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There is also a "cyclic paradox" involved. Let's say I have a Mantine and a Nidoking left, against the enemy's Espeon and Electabuzz. Obviously, I want to use Earthquake on Electabuzz and wall Espeon with Mantine. If the enemy has Electabuzz in against my Mantine, I obviously don't want to take the 4x damage multiplier from Thunderbolt. So I switch to Nidoking. But what happens if I think too deeply? What if I think that my opponent will predict the switch to Nidoking and either 1) switch to Espeon or 2) use Psychic or Ice Punch on Nidoking? I am trying to predict my opponent's prediction. They may predict that I will predict their prediction and use Thunderbolt, thinking that I will keep Mantine in to absorb the Psychic or Ice Punch. It is a never-ending cycle of predicting predictions, and I have to pick the right cycle to end on. The opponent will think the same as I do and they will not end on the same cycle as I do. Also, the safest maneuver would be to switch to Espeon or use Psychic. I would try to see that and use Surf, but the enemy would see my Surf and use T/Bolt. There is no sure-fire way of winning the prediction battle, but the tips in this guide will help you somewhat proficiently. Usually the enemy will only predict a couple of cycles into it, maybe as far as predicting your prediction. Go 3 cycles deep and you will have good proficiency.
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Old April 4th, 2006 (7:42 AM).
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In your "Recording" section, you should add that another good strategy to predicting is knowing the damage that your Pokemon can dish out against standard opponents, so keeping a log of your attack power (as well as a damage calculator sitting nearby) will be helpful to predict whether you should risk hitting that Skarmory one more time with Skarm at like 21% to try and KO it before it owns your Heracross with Drill Peck or the like. Granted, some people do some really screwy EV spreads in terms of their defenses, but if you keep in mind a general amount, it'll help tons. Knowing your opponent's attack is great, as you mentioned, but many games are lost by people trying to will that extra 3% of damage that wasn't supposed to be there in the first place. This is also especially helpful when, like the example you mentioned at the bottom, you have DDMence up against 55% Milotic. Knowing the general defense of Milo, you calculate it, thinking "Hmm..DDMence can be more useful to me later in the game, especially considering i've kept it at pretty full health..is it worth trying to take out this Milo, who if i fail Beams me and Recovers at the next opportunity?" Only the damage calculator can give the truth.

Also, a big thing that many people overlook are those attacks that lower base stats. I know you know this, but for the rest of the public, DO NOT IGNORE THESE. I don't know how many times I've used say Crunch on Boahtar, gotten the -1 SDef hit against the opponent, and in the opponent's complacency try to land another hit while Crunch deals that extra 15% to KO.
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Old April 4th, 2006 (9:05 AM).
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Please don't think too deeply into my cylical paradox post. It may confuse people whose brains are not developed enough to understand highly theoretical and advanced mathematical concepts. Just predict 2-3 cycles deep. Most people will only go one cycle on the first prediction, so go 2 cycles deep. After the second maneuver, they will think two cycles deep so go 3 cycles deep.
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Old April 4th, 2006 (12:45 PM).
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How about we put it into layman's terms and say "think a few turns ahead, like playing chess"? You're adding verbiage to a concept that can be described in 10 words or less. No complex mathematical equations or psychological paradoxes here.
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Old April 5th, 2006 (9:13 AM).
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In answer to your question Pyro, you are not thinking a few turns ahead. You are trying to decide if the enemy will use Thunderbolt on Mantine, thinking that you will predict that he predicted the switch to Nidoking, or whether he will use Psychic to predict the switch to Nidoking.
My enemy will be called mr. nobody.

1st cycle (e4 thought): mr nobody will use T/Bolt on Mantine.
2nd cycle (mr nobody thought): e4 will predict T/Bolt and switch to Nidoking.
3rd cycle (e4 thought): mr nobody will predict the switch to Nidoking and use Psychic.
4th cycle (mr nobody thought): e4 will predict the Psychic to kill Nidoking and leave Mantine in.

This is the paradox that occurs. See why it is confusing? If I end on 2nd cycle and mr nobody ends on 3rd cycle, I lose because Electabuzz just used a super effective attack on my Nidoking, who has only 6 HP EVs and no SD. If I end on 4th cycle and mr nobody ends on 5th cycle (actually 1st cycle), I lose because his Electabuzz just used a 4x effective attack on my special wall.

However, if I end on 2nd cycle when he ends on 1st cycle, he just used T/Bolt on a Ground type and therefore inflicted no damage.

Also, if I end on 4th cycle when he ends on 3rd cycle, he just used Psychic on my special wall, and I used Surf on something with low SD.

Go to second cycle the first time and 4th cycle the second time. There will probably only be two rotations before the enemy loses.
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Old April 5th, 2006 (11:00 AM).
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...which is EXACTLY like playing chess. It's called "predicting your opponent's prediction." This requires both thinking in the present AND thinking a few turns ahead. I really think all you wanted to do with that post was to use the term "cyclic paradox". =/
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Old April 5th, 2006 (12:16 PM).
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Not to mention the fact that he is misusing the word altogether. A paradox is something that contradicts itself, but is nonetheless true. A good example is - fighting for peace. While I do like the well-thought example that was provided, you should try to avoid using wordy terms for things so that younger readers will not get lost. "Predicting your opponent's prediction" or "guessing what your opponent will guess what you do" are definitely more appropriate in a FAQ.
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Old April 5th, 2006 (2:04 PM).
Kataphraktoi Kataphraktoi is offline
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Personally, i liked the word usage. Its good english to use such words to more succinctly express an idea.
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Old April 5th, 2006 (2:26 PM).
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I can say what e4 tried to say in three words; Pokemon is chess.

I agree with Pyro he just wanted to use the word "cyclic paradox" so he could sound smart.
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Old April 6th, 2006 (10:49 AM).
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Someone should make a guide on team building
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Old April 6th, 2006 (10:53 AM).
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I think that question might be answered by Mullet's OU guide, and Pyro's upcoming UU/BL guide. Pax should come here and make an NU guide IMO.
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Old May 24th, 2006 (10:17 AM).
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Too many short abreviations for me, I didn't understant a lot of it.
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Old June 3rd, 2006 (7:43 AM).
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just post what doesn't make sense and I'll add in a section for abbreviations
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