Speculation thread...

[GymLeaderMisty]

In another thread asked what people would do with USD one million. The thread was meant to elicit consumption decisions as responses. I posted bets that I would make and then the OP made an edit that said no investing. I am interested in speculating on futures though.

Any investing/speculation ideas do you have.

Rules:

No day trading

You can use short positions

You can use leverage

It has to be liquid assets (Commodities, Currencies, Equity, and Debt)

It could be macroeconomically based or more company oriented

You can use fundamental analysis, technical analysis, and/or sentiment analysis in basing trades

State the time frame of the trade (short term: less than two months; medium term: two to nine months; long term: nine months to two years; very long term: more than two years )

Here are the positions that I liked:
(I do not have time to express the thought I put in thess trades)

Currencies:
long GBP/JPY (short term trade)

Equity:
long the S&P 500
short the Russell 2000 (hedge for S&P position although there would be a net long bias in equity exposure)

Commodities:
short some oil contracts

Debt:
short 10 year Japanese government bonds
bet on US yield curve flattening (a bet the short term interest rates will raise faster than long term interest rates, or a bet the long term interest rates) although I think that interest rates in general have an upward bias.

* in standby with my fingers on execution although one has to be patient... the impatient get murdered in the markets.

Currencies:

short EUR/USD
short GBP/USD
long USD/AUD (overall, I am a bullish on USD in the medium term, but short term neutral; everyone is a dollar bear)
long USD/JPY

Equity:
short S&P 500 (requires unwinding of the long position, might be done in a few months/ a long term bearish bet against economic growth and prosperity)

Commodities:
short gold
short copper
(essential bets against emerging markets and betting that the dollar would rally. The question of execution has to do with the timing)

Debt:
long 10 year US Treasuries
long 10 German government bonds
bet that corporate spreads would widen vs. Treasuries
(Deflation trades... the risk/reward for putting on the long positions now isn't that good. US Treasury yields are at a support of 330 basis points. Rising interest rates (which means falling bond prices) make US treasuries more attractive.)

All positions would have stop-losses. If you are losing admit you are wrong and close the position at small loss. Do not fight the tape, and do not be stubborn.

Try not to do something idiotic, like this:

 

[PyrgusMalvae]

I feel really dumb, because I don't understand most of that and I'm a Management major. But in simple terms, I would invest in low-risk, low-return stocks. Things that everyone uses, like ketchup or q-tips. I would also go for real estate, but not near the water, because in 20 years we may have melted all the ice caps haha.

 

[twocows]

I have investments in a few stocks, I generally invest in tech companies that I know are doing well but aren't very popular yet. I'll also invest in companies that I like and aren't likely to fail, but aren't necessarily doing great (I like to do what I can to help). Honestly, though, I really don't have that much money to invest. Regardless, if you know what's going on in a given branch of business, the stock market's usually relatively safe; I've watched my net investment of about $1000 or so in various companies grow to over double that in a few years. And if you don't know what you're doing, you can always invest in something like QQQQ. :D

If I was going to invest in something hard, though, it would be gold. Gold has always seemed to be relatively depression-proof. I actually support the gold standard; our economy would fare much better if there was something consistently valuable behind our currency.

 

[Mattysaurus]

My grandmother invested in McDonald's when it was just a little store.
She is really rich now.

Ontopic: I don't know how to invest but I would invest in something like Casinos or something near home. :|