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The contraception thing is more of an issue in places like Sub-Saharan Africa where AIDS runs rampant. The Catholic Church could be a force of good if it would encourage people to use contraception, but they haven't because it runs afoul of their "for reproduction only" stance. Sure, they'll condemn sex outside of marriage, and that's part of the AIDS problem, but it's not really helpful in addressing practical solutions.From that short-list, I think changing views on contraception would be more likely than gay marriage. They already encourage "family planning", which would imply that "good Catholic people" don't always get it on just to have a child. So, contraception would just facilitate that I think. Plus, the number of people who identify themselves as Catholics and don't use contraceptives is probably really quite small.
But, I still don't see it happening XD