UK Elections 2015

Next Thurdsay is voting day! Poll projections expect a tie in vote share and a few more Tory seats, although the Con-Lib coalition would fall well off the mark for a majority. Today The Independent talked of a 61% support for an electoral change to proportional distribution of seats after the election, since first past the post isn't creating majorities anymore.

Should the tories try to work out a minority government if they are the largest party? Is it okay for Labour to try a SNP coalition (officially or just for a motion of confidence to pass) even if they come in second place? What if one party comes first in votes but second in seats? This is poised to be the craziest election in over a century.

Right now the ideal with me is probably a Labour-SNP coalition, seeing as Labour is the lesser of two evils, and as much as I agree with the Lib Dems Nick Clegg isn't gonna do shit. As long as Cons-UKIP doesn't happen though I think I will be fine.

A three party coalition seems more and more likely everyday though. Now that would be insane.

Nauje said:

Right now the ideal with me is probably a Labour-SNP coalition, seeing as Labour is the lesser of two evils, and as much as I agree with the Lib Dems Nick Clegg isn't gonna do shit. As long as Cons-UKIP doesn't happen though I think I will be fine.

A three party coalition seems more and more likely everyday though. Now that would be insane.

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Well, thanks to the British electoral system, UKIP are likely to translate their 14% share of votes into 2 seats, under 0.5% of the House, which is absurdly unfair but a relief for everybody else.

It's pretty funny how so many newspapers (Guardian, Independent, Economist) keep saying how the Lib-Dems would be just great but sadly they end up endorsing either Con or Lab because there is no chance the libs will ever win.

Also a 3-party coalition (Lab-Lib-SNP) would give a lot of stability. It's just that the British are so unused to coalitions of any kind that it'd have to be handled with a lot of care (though here in Madrid we are also expecting a 3-party coalition after this month's election- but that wouldn't be a novelty for us).

Went said:

Well, thanks to the British electoral system, UKIP are likely to translate their 14% share of votes into 2 seats, under 0.5% of the House, which is absurdly unfair but a relief for everybody else.

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14% is a number too big though. I just came back from town and the number of houses with 'I'm Voting For UKIP!' stickers on their windows was astounding, and this is a borough that's been Labour-run (ignoring an odd Conservative stint) for nearly 25 years.

It's pretty funny how so many newspapers (Guardian, Independent, Economist) keep saying how the Lib-Dems would be just great but sadly they end up endorsing either Con or Lab because there is no chance the libs will ever win.

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Couldn't have put it better myself.

Nauje said:

14% is a number too big though. I just came back from town and the number of houses with 'I'm Voting For UKIP!' stickers on their windows was astounding, and this is a borough that's been Labour-run (ignoring an odd Conservative stint) for nearly 25 years.

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It's true that it's a big number, yeah - and I too see a load of VOTE UKIP signs everywhere (which takes balls in my area - also predominantly Labour with a lot of immigration). Just be thankful that the 14% is fairly widely dispersed I suppose so they aren't actually going to be getting any seats (as Went said - 0.5% of the house from 14% of the vote, somehow). Still scary that 14% of voters want UKIP in though.

Anywho, I'm okay with anything as long as it doesn't involve Green or UKIP and preferably not Conservative either but that's a lesser priority of mine. Even though Labour lost my vote a few days back with that stupid stone tablet publicity stunt I'd ideally like to see a Labour/Lib Dem but I know that people don't have a lot of faith in Nick Clegg these days so I'm not massively hopeful. Right now everything's still very much up in the air though and it's all quite exciting - a word that I never thought I'd use for politics until now, haha.

Cons-UKIP

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*shudders*

UKIP and the Conservatives would never form a coalition, UKIP need to attract Labour voters (which they are doing) in order to become a viable party in the future, throwing their hat in with the Conservatives would ruin that plan, UKIP also see Conservatives as relativity liberal (which they are on social matters like gay marriage, immigration, climate change and the European Union (or at least they the fact they wish to remain members). From the Conservative perspective a UKIP coalition would ruin the "nice party" image Cameron has being trying to give the Conservatives, it would also force him to look at leaving Europe.

Lib dems are dead, no need to expand on that.

Greens will win in the likes of Brighton were liberal/left wing voters are high in number but can never get same amount of votes as UKIP (as UKIP are very much a populist party). But I think they may do ok.

The worst thing about UK election is you vote for your MP not Prime minister, so you can only vote for parties standing in your area, if you wanted to vote for a party standing at election but don't have a candidate in your area you can't vote for them, this is bad for smaller parties.
Also the way the constituencies are set up is mostly in Labours favour as traditional Labour areas tend to be divided up into small constituencies (some towns or cities can have more MP's than a whole (mostly rural) county).

On the SNP issue an SNP win is bad for labour as much of its voters are based in Scotland also any party forming a coalition with the SNP may risk alienating English and Welsh Voters.

Northern Irish parties could also be brought into a coalition if the need was to arise.

Gardevoir the Dragon Slayer said:

On the SNP issue an SNP win is bad for labour as much of its voters are based in Scotland also any party forming a coalition with the SNP may risk alienating English and Welsh Voters.

Northern Irish parties could also be brought into a coalition if the need was to arise.

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Well, not exactly. It's not that Labour got most of their votes from Scotland- they got them from England, like everybody else. It's more that Scotland was essentially a one-party country voting for Labour en-masse. Now they are the same but voting for the SNP instead. And, since most new SNP voters are ex-lab, they can reach agreements more easily. The thing is, if Labour hadn't lost Scotland with the pro-union campaign in the referendum, they'd be aiming for a majority right now. Without Scotland, all they can aim for is matching the tories, who already lost Scotland some decades ago.

Now the issue Sturgeon is raising is, okay, having the SNP can alienate people from England or Wales, but how can anybody possibly try to form a "representative" Government without a single Scottish MP? Wouldn't that alienate Scots? Because if igoring Scots is a-ok, then they shouldn't scream for dear life when Scotland votes to leave a country run by everyone but them.

Also, calling on NI parties is a tricky thing. Sinn Féin are against British rule period, the SDLP would only join in to vote Cameron out, not to get Miliband in, and the DUP barely has 8 seats, not enough to make a difference unless there is a sudden tory surge overnight.

Went said:

Well, not exactly. It's not that Labour got most of their votes from Scotland- they got them from England, like everybody else. It's more that Scotland was essentially a one-party country voting for Labour en-masse. Now they are the same but voting for the SNP instead. And, since most new SNP voters are ex-lab, they can reach agreements more easily. The thing is, if Labour hadn't lost Scotland with the pro-union campaign in the referendum, they'd be aiming for a majority right now. Without Scotland, all they can aim for is matching the tories, who already lost Scotland some decades ago.

Now the issue Sturgeon is raising is, okay, having the SNP can alienate people from England or Wales, but how can anybody possibly try to form a "representative" Government without a single Scottish MP? Wouldn't that alienate Scots? Because if igoring Scots is a-ok, then they shouldn't scream for dear life when Scotland votes to leave a country run by everyone but them.

Also, calling on NU parties is a tricky thing. Sinn Féin are against British rule period, the SDLP would only join in to vote Cameron out, not to get Miliband in, and the DUP barely has 8 seats, not enough to make a difference unless there is a sudden tory surge overnight.

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Yes I should have made it more clear, like you say England gives votes to Labour, but the loss of Scotland to independence would be devastating to Labour (but thats another debate)

Interesting point about the Scots but Labour/Conserivites/Lib-Dems are Pan-UK parties so they represent Scotland as much as they do England (Scots may disagree, but theoretical thats the case). SNP are only (or at least mostly) interested in Scottish issues and Scotland. Also much of what happens in Scotland is from the Scottish assembly rather than House of Lords. Also would SNP really benefit from being in a coalition, its harder to criticise Westminster when your a part of it and a bad term could ruin their reputation in the long run.

Quite right no one would bring in Sinn Fein. But if the Conservatives needed more power could they not form a large coalition incorporating Pro Unionist parties? especially when every seat counts.

If the Conservatives get in, you can say goodbye to the NHS. Personally, I think either UKIP or Conservatives are the worst case scenarios. I think Ed Miliband could make a good PM, actually.

Good morning everybody.



You can feel the panic quite clearly.

Gardevoir the Dragon Slayer said:

Yes I should have made it more clear, like you say England gives votes to Labour, but the loss of Scotland to independence would be devastating to Labour (but thats another debate)

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When Labour got 50-odd seats there, it was the case. Now that they are expected to win three seats, while being mostly tied with the Tories in EnglandAndWales, you could argue that, without Scotland, they are at the same place- fighting for 40 marginals to decide who gets the most seats and can ask the Lib-Dems for a coalition.

Interesting point about the Scots but Labour/Conserivites/Lib-Dems are Pan-UK parties so they represent Scotland as much as they do England (Scots may disagree, but theoretical thats the case). SNP are only (or at least mostly) interested in Scottish issues and Scotland. Also much of what happens in Scotland is from the Scottish assembly rather than House of Lords. Also would SNP really benefit from being in a coalition, its harder to criticise Westminster when your a part of it and a bad term could ruin their reputation in the long run.

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Well, they represent Scotland in an "illustrated despotism" sort of way- "all for the people but without the people". The Tories represented Scotland so well that, over the Thatcher years, they went from 22 seats to being left without a single Scottish MP in 1997. A UK Government, regardless of who leads it, will have to make policy for Scotland when required, of course, but the Scots have all the right in the world to not feel represented by a Cabinet led by a party they have hated profoundly for decades. Especially when that party (and their media cheerleaders) keep stroking the fear for the Scottish representation. I can't help but insist on how extremely hypocritical it sounds to claim the SNP would be a terrible danger and how Scots' representatives shouldn't be allowed anywhere near power while insisting they stay inside the Union. Stay but don't have a say in our -your- Government, you can talk about your local stuff over at Holyrood instead.

Quite right no one would bring in Sinn Fein. But if the Conservatives needed more power could they not form a large coalition incorporating Pro Unionist parties? especially when every seat counts.

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The only three Unionist parties who could possibly support Cameron are the Lib-Dems (who will probably back Labour too if it's clear a Con-led coalition isn't strong enough), UKIP (who will barely get any seats to make a difference) and the DUP. The issue is, UKIP + DUP will get 12 seats at best, so Con + Lib should get over 310 seats, and they are polling at just over 300 right now. I guess we'll have to see the exact numbers tomorrow.

Interesting election. Considering how disastrous the austerity policies imposed by the coalition was. The Lib-Dems really made a bad choice going with the Tories in 2010. But then again considering the atmosphere at the time with people clamoring for fiscal responsibility. Yeah. >.>

I've been following the election constantly and now my exam is over, I can finally just wait and enjoy the results coming in. I think it's more and more likely we will get a second election due to the coalition red lines everyone has, but also a small chance of Con-Lib-DUP if Yougov's prediction is anything to go by (I think Lib Dems would be mad to do anything involving DUP though).

Over the past week, I've noticed a lot of people jump to Labour and a Scottish poll suggests they've gained 4 points on SNP this week, but it just doesn't seem to be translating in the opinion polls or seat predictions. Still I do think overall we'll see Lab 2% ahead of Con despite the opinion polls suggesting it to be closer, but Cons probably still with the most seats.

If Lab gets the most seats, Cameron can start packing tomorrow at 9. If there are more tories but a Con-Lib-DUP coalition is unfeasible, it might be necessary to wait for the Queen's Speech to be voted down by an anti-tory Lab-SNP-Grn-SDLP coalition before Miliband can have a go at forming Government. The fun will be if there is a difference between the winner in votes and seats, making it possible for each side to claim legitimacy, or if Miliband is crazy enough to refuse to reach any sort of agreement with the SNP whatsoever, because chances are a second election this early won't change much.

Well miliband has ruled out a 'deal' with the snp in his words, but I suppose politicians aren't renowned for keeping their promises. It will certainly be interesting regardless of what happens, any last minute swings can still change the situation entirely.

Voted Labour myself although my constituancy is a pretty safe Conservatives seat....... such a crap voting system we have really should be modernised. Although it looks pretty close overall so looking forward to watching the results roll in across the night

Going to be so annoyed if Conservaties manage to stay in power.... I HATE David Cameron

Exit poll!

Con 316, 6 up
Lab 239, 19 down
Snp 58
Lib 10 (wtf!)
Ukip 2

A Con + Lib coalition would have exactly a majority. The slightest swing to the left would make a tremendous change.

Unbelievable, I haven't been so shocked by something in a long while.

I feel Con may even disregard Lib and go for DUP and maybe UKIP if the real results are like that.

Yougov has a different exit poll that looks from a different country:
Con 284
Lab 263
Snp 48
Lib 31

"Yougov exit poll numbers would mean Tories and Lib Dems at 315; while Lab, SNP, greens and PC at 315" - Allegra Stratton.

Either a) all the polls were wrong, b) there was a huge Tory surge overnight, c) FPTP is badly hurting Labour and giving the tories a huge advantage in the votes-to-MPs conversion, d) the BBC exit poll is an embarrassing mess, e) something completely different happens and polling companies might as well pack up.

By the Looks of things so far, many people must have thought "Do I really want Labour" and opted for Conservative, a sort of better the Devil you know sort of thing, also the aggressive anti Ed Milliband campaign the media mounted must have worked.
SNP seem to have done very well.
Lib dems fell apart (then again in their traditional role as protest vote we now have UKIP and the Greens who offer more firm idoligical standings than Libdems ever did).
UKIP and Greens have done OK but hold no real power, (we will have to see vote percentages to see how well they did). They may both enjoy large success on council seat level.

Like Nuke says Conservatives may opt for the DUP's over Lib dems, It would certainly work better for them not having to pacify Lib Dems all the time.

Of course when the real results come in this could be a totally different story.

The Yougov poll certainly makes better reading from my perspective.

This BBC poll means anything is possible now though, I have no idea what to predict.