6th Gen Using Defog on Chain Fishing

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Hello All!

So chain fishing. It's a subject that has baffled us all since it was first announced as a shiny chaining method in X and Y. Now, over two years later, we're still unsure of how it works. I would like to change this. As a member of the international baccalaureate programme, I am required to perform a mathematical project of epic proportions. The project I have chosen: deriving an equation for incremental probability using chain fishing as a guide. I have chosen chain fishing in an effort to be unique and to assist the pokecommunity as a whole in finally pinning down exactly how chain fishing works.

So for those few who do not know, chain fishing is a way to increase your chances of finding a shiny pokemon by fishing for and catching pokemon in the same spot without performing any other actions. We know that this method increases your chances of finding a shiny each time you reel a pokemon in, but we do not know by how much. Today the quest to discover exactly how it works begins.

What I ask of you is no small task, and I cannot do it alone. It will take the combined efforts of all of us within the community to collect the data I need to derive the equation we all wish to find. If you are willing to help, reply in the following format:

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Shiny Charm:
Rod:
Route:
Pokemon in Party:
Number of Casts:
Shiny Found:
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In the shiny charm section, denote wether or not you have a shiny charm with "yes" or "no".

Rod is fairly self explanatory. Simply denote which rod you are using.

Route is included for the purpose of being thorough, as is the Shiny Found. Fill these out with the route, city, or town you are in and the shiny pokemon you found.

Pokemon in Party is placed again for two reasons: firstly, to be thorough and secondly because a theory exists that having a shiny pokemon in your party decreases your chances of finding a shiny pokemon. Denote any shiny pokemon with "(S)". For example, Metagross(S).

Number of casts is the most important part of this data collection. If you get the message "nothing seems to be biting", you reel in too fast, or you reel in too slowly, reset your count to zero as these messages break your chain. If you do anything but cast your rod or open your menu, again set your counter to zero. Record the number of casts it took to successfully find a shiny pokemon.






I would like to thank all who decide to participate in this grand feat. I cannot do it without the help of each and every one of you. When I feel I have enough information to determine the equation we are looking for I will post that I have begun the work required. When I finally find it I will share it with you all, of course. You all deserve to share in the fruits of our labor. I will also post my own data, of course, so that others can check my work in the future.

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Here's Hoping For the Best,

Rmkendrick or Rakem

**EDIT** If anyone is interested, a post or two expressing your interest would help to keep this project alive.

Wow, this is quite an undertaking! This somewhat reminds me of something a few reddit users did with DexNav chaining--you might have heard about it. One thing I'm curious about: is there a particular sample size you're looking for?

Something else that might be worth pointing out was something that one of the commenters on the Reddit article above mentioned, which is that the way you're collecting data, it may be skewed a bit due to the fact that people are much more likely to post here if they found a shiny after a short chaining session, and it's not likely that there will be many people posting for whom it took say, 900+ attempts. I guess a way to put it is, you wouldn't be working with an entirely random data set here.

But I still find this quite interesting! And if I ever do have any luck getting a shiny through chain fishing in ORAS, I'll certainly give you the deets here, and perhaps others will too ^_^

Thanks a lot Sopheria! It means a lot that you're willing to help out with this. As for sample size, I think it would be best to get at least 512 different results, as 1 in 512 is the base shiny rate with the shiny charm. More would be a blessing, but at least that many would probably be best.

I thought this was going to be about actually using the move Defog while chain fishing.

I'll work on this for yah bud. Will edit my post whenever i manage to nab a shiny one.

Just an update on the project real quick. It's coming along slowly with the current lack of people assisting in this undertaking, but it is coming along regardless. Hopefully we'll be able to figure this out soon!