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Old February 7th, 2011 (04:51 AM).
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The entire process of the formation of that equation is flawed.

Total number of possibilities = 2

Probability of NegaiShipping = 1/2 = 50%
Probability of CafeMochaShipping = 1/2 = 50%

Now that should satisfy both of you. =D
You may now safely ignore this post.