2016 US Presidential Elections Thread [Trump Wins]

Lance said:

Rubio is probably regretting that pompous speech, he hasn't exactly had a good week and now the primary today sees my state's Governor, Kasich, and Bush jump him in NH, haha. Trump winning wasn't a surprise, New Hampshire is kind of a fringe state ideology wise, so his rhetoric fits right in with some of the more right-wing Republicans. Cruz still did pretty well here though, but he's basically fringe himself so he also benefits like Trump does from this demographic. Really didn't expect Jeb to be third, though.

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Likewise for Sanders and the more left wing Democrats. Both are trouncing their opponents by twenty percentage points...

Looks like Sanders did as well as I had hoped for, better in fact. Again, he is outperforming what the polls expect of him. Hopefully this will cause people to rethink their positions going into the next few primaries.

Sanders has the young and independent vote in the bag, both were tied with registered Democrats. Of course, in States where only registered democrats can vote, that will be a problem. Also, the biggest issue comes from minorities. If they all vote for Clinton, Sanders might not survive SuperTuesday. We'll see.

Meanwhile, accross the road, it's Trump party featuring a thirty-car pileup for Stablishment Candidate while good old Chosen One drops to last (well, technically Christie, Carson and Fiorina did worse still but do they even matter at this point?) after he was humilliated in the debate. Fun times. The longer the battle between Kasich, Rubio and Bush keeps dragging on, the better for the other two, who can carry States with just a 50-60% of combined support. And if Rubio's gaffe turns out to be lethal, all the people who jumped the gun after Iowa will start looking even sillier than they do right now.

Carly Fiorina has dropped out (thankfully) and Chris Christie is rumored to be dropping out this week. It's about time the Republican field thinned out a bit. Especially loons like Fiorina. Not sure how she fathomed she had a chance nationally when she couldn't even get close to winning in California.

The final result for the democratic primary was 60.4% for Sanders and 38.0% for Clinton with all precincts having reported. Wow. His numbers just kept going up.

And the fun thing is that both got 15 delegates out of New Hampshire! It was a tie. Unlike Iowa, which was a clear victory for Clinton: 29 to 21. So Clinton is currently winning the race, 44 to 36.

Well, if we go and count already commited superdelegates, then Clinton is currently winning 388 to 50. Sanders will have to run a lot still just to catch up.

Ivysaur said:

And the fun thing is that both got 15 delegates out of New Hampshire! It was a tie. Unlike Iowa, which was a clear victory for Clinton: 29 to 21. So Clinton is currently winning the race, 44 to 36.

Well, if we go and count already commited superdelegates, then Clinton is currently winning 388 to 50. Sanders will have to run a lot still just to catch up.

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There were only 24 delegates up for grabs in New Hampshire. Bernie got 15 thanks to having over 56% of the vote, while Clinton got 9. Bernie has her on delegates, 36 to 32, unless you count the superdelegates, in which case: yes, he has much left to do.

Klippy said:

There were only 24 delegates up for grabs in New Hampshire. Bernie got 15 thanks to having over 56% of the vote, while Clinton got 9. Bernie has her on delegates, 36 to 32, unless you count the superdelegates, in which case: yes, he has much left to do.

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Yeah, that's the problem: on NH superdelegates, the balance was 6-0 for Clinton, so she essentially nullified Sanders's vote margin into an effective tie. Because, let's be honest: he has started the race with -330 delegates in the red. He needs to get many whooping victories just to get level with her.

I think the more states he picks up (if he picks them up), the more you'll see those superdelegate numbers shrink as people switch to him or commit to supporting him. He's even downplayed their significance this early because of the quantity needed to win (~2,500).

Also I looked and Bill Clinton is a superdelegate.

Superdelegates can defect? I did not know that. Are there any examples of this occurring on a significant level in history?

I like Bernie Sanders. He has good ideas.

MUDKIP!!! said:

I like Bernie Sanders. He has good ideas.

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Whilst I'm not from the US, from what I've heard I too am quite a fan of Bernie Sanders. I agree with a lot of his policy, in particular those with more socialist leanings appeal to me. What parts of his campaign are appealing to you the most?

I like his idea for free college, and a couple others which i can't remember.

Kanzler said:

Superdelegates can defect? I did not know that. Are there any examples of this occurring on a significant level in history?

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Not exactly the same, but during the 1944 Presidential election the VP nomination was essentially stolen from Henry Wallace, given to Truman due to some back-room politicking by the feds and Democratic party bosses like Boss Tweed from NY and Chicago mob officials who would take a hit from Wallace's more stringent "New Deal" economic policies and his platform of increased civil rights for minorities. Its sad, Wallace would have then been President in '45 after FDR's death, not Truman - possibly no usage of the atom bomb, civil rights would have come 20 years earlier, etc. He was very anti-war as well, could have altered the course of the early Cold War conflicts (Korea, namely) as well. So there is precedent for the delegates flipping, but it involves some quasi-legal politicking and some outright illegal stuff as well.

Lance said:

Not exactly the same, but during the 1944 Presidential election the VP nomination was essentially stolen from Henry Wallace, given to Truman due to some back-room politicking by the feds and Democratic party bosses like Boss Tweed from NY and Chicago mob officials who would take a hit from Wallace's more stringent "New Deal" economic policies and his platform of increased civil rights for minorities. Its sad, Wallace would have then been President in '45 after FDR's death, not Truman - possibly no usage of the atom bomb, civil rights would have come 20 years earlier, etc. He was very anti-war as well, could have altered the course of the early Cold War conflicts (Korea, namely) as well. So there is precedent for the delegates flipping, but it involves some quasi-legal politicking and some outright illegal stuff as well.

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I guess we'll have to see how binding it is for a superdelegate to pledge to support a candidate this early in the race.

Did else watch the Democratic debate that just happened tonight? What are your thoughts on it?

Interesting point of the debate for me: they talked about white people. When was the last time anybody talked about white people?

Kanzler said:

Superdelegates can defect? I did not know that. Are there any examples of this occurring on a significant level in history?

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Apparently so.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/superdelegates-might-not-save-hillary-clinton/

I was originally for Rand Paul, but I'm now for Donald Trump.

FreakyLocz14 said:

I was originally for Rand Paul, but I'm now for Donald Trump.

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What has Donald Trump proposed for the economy?

Kanzler said:

What has Donald Trump proposed for the economy?

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We will have more jobs if we stop illegal immigration. We also need to get rid of H-1B visas. Immigrants should only come here with the intention of staying.

FreakyLocz14 said:

We will have more jobs if we stop illegal immigration. We also need to get rid of H-1B visas. Immigrants should only come here with the intention of staying.

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How does that create new jobs?