2016 US Presidential Elections Thread [Trump Wins]

[Kanzler]

DONALD TRUMP to grab your attention

I really just wanted to talk about the Iowa caucuses, but then I realized that the old 2016 election thread is way buried and it's probably better to create a new thread than to necro the old one.

So let's all talk about the 2016 election here, we know that it's probably going to be the most exciting election since 2008 at least and definitely since 2012 so WHERE ARE ALL THE TRUMP RELATED THREADS? Put all Trump/Hilary/Sanders/Cruz/Rubio/other Republican candidates who might still have a chance content here.

Okay to kick off the first topic: the Iowa caucuses are tomorrow (or today depending on when I finish this post)! For those of you who aren't familiar with American politics here's a quick introduction.

Spoiler:

In the United States, presidential candidates for each party are not the party leaders, but are selected through elections called primaries. However, it's not like all the party members get to vote on a leader - no - because the United States insists on being the most decentralized federal democracy ever, every state and territory (and even overseas Americans) get to vote in their own primary election. Each primary from each state will give each candidate a number of delegates based on how much of the vote they got, and whoever gets the most delegates at the end gets the nomination of the party. If it's not confusing enough already, each state has a choice of running a caucus or a primary, which may be closed, semi-closed or open, and these primaries/caucuses are held from February all the way until June.

So basically there are these primaries which are held at different dates and might have different rules, which collectively select a candidate for a party for the Presidency of the United States. What's so special about the one in Iowa? It's the first caucus/primary, which means a lot to political news, but I think it's important because it gives underdog candidates a fighting chance if they can deliver most of the delegates in the first concrete event of the election.

I am super excited about Bernie Sanders possibly being the Presidential candidate for the Democratic Party. Right now he's polling nationally around 37% vs. Hilary Clinton's 52% (which is already a pretty high number considering how un-establishment he is), but the polls are indicating that he is neck and neck with Clinton for the Iowa caucus. If he ekes out a victory there (imo by securing at least half of the delegates), then that might nudge voters to be more confident about his electability.

Anyways, the floor is yours. Let's talk about the Presidential election this year - starting with the Iowa caucuses, but continuing with basically any event or topic related to the election as it twists and turns. Talk about your thoughts, your most important issues, your favourite candidates, your preferred party, fears, concerns, and predictions. Or we can just talk about Trump. I might edit the OP later on to be more reflective of the election in general.

And lastly, let's all play nice and not get too heated/snappy in here. It's a long election ahead.

 

[Klippy]

I'm very excited to see what happens tomorrow at the Iowa caucuses. I hope the candidates I'm in support of do well... it's such a desperate feeling knowing that the results of this can sometimes turn the tide of the election or make candidates drop out.

Obviously the Republican field will be thinning greatly soon, which is good for candidates serious about sticking with it. I expect Fiorina, Huckabee, Santorum, and maybe Carson/Kasich/Bush to drop out in the next few weeks. In their absence, I expect Christie to rise in the polls a lot more than he has been. Trump, Rubio, Cruz, and maybe Carson/Kasich/Bush will do solidly - Paul as well. Rand Paul will probably remain in the race to be the sole dissenting voice among the others who all sound like an echo chamber.

I don't expect any of the Democrats to drop out, but I do hope the results tomorrow are hopeful for those Sanders fans. I respect the honesty and integrity he's shown in his campaign and his counterpunches to Clinton's attacks have been solid. He deserves the win tomorrow to really legitimize his campaign for detractors.

It's a weird election.

 

[Ivysaur]

In August or so, I made a post (and a blog entry) saying that Trump was so shockingly enduring he was actually a good candidate. Today, I honestly don't see how he loses. He's leading virtually everywhere and he's getting close to the 40% mark, where, even if the "moderates" drop out and the surviving one somehow attracts all of their combined support -a big if-, they would barely manage to tie him. If he makes a Iowa-NH-SC combo, I don't know how anybody stops him.

The only chance is that his polling turns out to be overstated- then we don't know anything yet. But if his polling is right? He will probably be the most dominating Republican candidate in years and years, and this will become one of the most boring races in ever. After all, there hasn't been any random "not-Trump" candidates going up and down as in 2012- he's been top of virtually every national poll conducted since July minus two (in the admittedly random Carson surge, which barely lasted a week or two). It's amazing how the Republican race is so contested and exciting when, if an outsider looked only at the polls, they would think it's a completely boring Trump blowout. Seeing the Republican party slowly come to terms with the fact that they have created a base that is willing to vote for Donald Trump is quite a fascinating tale.

Sanders's story is obviously the only chance for the Democrats to have something more than a Clinton blowout, and he still needs to outperform these weeks so as to grab some attention in the South, where Clinton is sweeping up with the black vote. The question is whether he'll manage to survive until past Supertuesday, when the Northern, whiter states can save him, otherwise...

 

[illumine]

Trump is a bit of a let-down politically, other than their other issues they really don't seem to particularly acknowledge political issues outside of 'immigration,' which is sort of a bizarre case of pretending that a fairly neutral side-issue is somehow central. You figure that would be effectively the Republican Party neutralising itself as a political entity, by losing its focus on, as Mike Huckabee might point out, its base in social issues and in political positions generally. Conversely - and let's recall that Parties aren't insulated, especially when they don't even try - the Clinton thing seems to be attempting to ride on a similar wave of hype (and very little else, of course), as opposed to Bernie Sanders who is more renowned for his positions (which makes his position significant), and as such the Clinton campaign is mostly being reduced to personal issues and such, which might perhaps work to the expense of their Party in the future. Seems weird how important Bill Clinton seemingly is to their campaigning, given their history, but I guess that's part of the reason why they're a front-runner in the first place, which is frequently acknowledged and really quite bizarre.

In any case, you might expect it to be more interesting than 2012, which was just a re-election thing, but really it doesn't seem like people are nearly as interested in 'politics,' in that realm, by this point, and mostly the noise gets highlighted because there's very little else. At the same time, this means that Bernie Sanders is the only 'candidate' which people might make any particularly strong political associations with, and as such stands out in the context, which is an interesting departure. Anyway, as the politics are safely elsewhere, not that exciting an 'election,' but I guess at least it's not as given to dishonest pretence as the comparatively loud 2008 election.

 

[Livewire]

IIRC the last polling from 538 I saw had Hilary with a roughly 5 point margin over Sanders, and Trump holding a 22%-19%-19% advantage over Cruz and Rubio, respectively, and that should hold up, Silver is a polling wunderkind so I trust that forecast. Buuuut from what i've seen on twitter so far it's pretty much a deadbeat between Clinton and Sanders, if those #'s are to be trusted.

 

[Ivysaur]

IIRC the last polling from 538 I saw had Hilary with a roughly 5 point margin over Sanders, and Trump holding a 22%-19%-19% advantage over Cruz and Rubio, respectively, and that should hold up, Silver is a polling wunderkind so I trust that forecast. Buuuut from what i've seen on twitter so far it's pretty much a deadbeat between Clinton and Sanders, if those #'s are to be trusted.

It has changed a lot ever since you last saw it. Wunderkind Silver gives two polling estimates. The "polls only", aka the raw average of polls, gives Trump a 28.6%, compared to 23.9% for Cruz and 16.4% for Rubio. The "adjusting for other factors that may influence the result" polling estimate leaves Trump with 25.6%, Cruz with 24.3% and Rubio with 18.1%. So it's even less close than that.

I have heard that Rand may win Iowa tomorrow as his campaign has been doing a lot of organizing and has many student pledges, we'll see though.

Paul is polling at a staggering 4.4%. If he wins, every pollster might as well pack up and quit.

 

[Kanzler]

ohmagerrd Clinton vs. Sanders is 51% to 48%

 

[Klippy]

ohmagerrd Clinton vs. Sanders is 51% to 48%

49.8% to 49.6%. This is a moral victory for Sanders, regardless of the "official" total. Pundits were saying he'd barely get close.

 

[Kanzler]

49.8% to 49.6%. This is a moral victory for Sanders, regardless of the "official" total. Pundits were saying he'd barely get close.

No way - it was 50.7% vs 48.6% when I was at the gym. The final results do seem slightly more charitable to Sanders than the polls. I hope he'll continue to perform above expectations moving forwards.

 

[Klippy]

No way - it was 50.7% vs 48.6% when I was at the gym. The final results do seem slightly more charitable to Sanders than the polls. I hope he'll continue to perform above expectations moving forwards.

Right now, 96% reporting in and it's 49.9% to 49.6% - it's been fluctuating around .8-.9 for Hillary, but for the last 20 minutes roughly, it's been 95% reporting in. So there's clearly some very tiny margins being hit here.

It's pretty exciting for political nuts.

 

[Frostweaver]

For all purposes, the democratic side is a tie. To me, seeing Clinton and Sander's speeches as a response to what's happening is far more telling of character.

We'll see how does it get spun by media tomorrow though... how this is reported on Tuesday will be the big thing for both candidates.

 

[Ivysaur]

Rubio and Sanders are clearly the moral winners. Trump is wounded but not dead, as the whole point was that Cruz was someone he could afford to lose to here. Now the question is how this affects the following states and whether the "moderates" will rally behind Rubio. Trump underperformed (probably because turnout was impressively larger, so his loyal supporters accounted for a smaller share of the vote), so we know nothing for sure. Not even about Rubio's future performance: Cruz and Trump together still add up to over 50% of the vote, so... it's not a "Establishment win by default".

Sanders didn't win (which he needed), but he can spin the result very positively, and considering how much the media narrative wants Clinton to die, there will be a lot of people ready to sing his praises all around (and remark how disappointing Clinton's results were).

 

[Kanzler]

What's this about Hilary Clinton securing the minority vote? I thought Bernie Sanders remains the most credible candidate regarding income and racial inequality?

 

[Ivysaur]

What's this about Hilary Clinton securing the minority vote? I thought Bernie Sanders remains the most credible candidate regarding income and racial inequality?

Quoting from a couple of weeks ago: "According to a NBC News poll released Tuesday, Clinton has a huge lead over Sanders with African Americans, 63 to 20 percent, and Hispanic voters, 54 percent to 33 percent. "

 

[OmegaRuby and AlphaSapphire]

Rubio and Sanders are clearly the moral winners. Trump is wounded but not dead, as the whole point was that Cruz was someone he could afford to lose to here. Now the question is how this affects the following states and whether the "moderates" will rally behind Rubio. Trump underperformed (probably because turnout was impressively larger, so his loyal supporters accounted for a smaller share of the vote), so we know nothing for sure. Not even about Rubio's future performance: Cruz and Trump together still add up to over 50% of the vote, so... it's not a "Establishment win by default".

Sanders didn't win (which he needed), but he can spin the result very positively, and considering how much the media narrative wants Clinton to die, there will be a lot of people ready to sing his praises all around (and remark how disappointing Clinton's results were).

Despite adding up over 50 percent of the vote, Rubio hopes to take advantage of the fact that Trump and Cruz try to appeal to similar bases, which will divide that over fifty percent in half while he gets the rest (if the other "establishment" candidates drop out). That could help him win future states. It's interesting to see how this will all play out.

Btw did anyone else read about Hillary winning some state delegates based on coin tosses? NPR claims that doesn't tell the whole story, but regardless, the Democratic Iowa caucus is far more complicated than the Republican caucus process in how they allocate their delegates...

 

[Ivysaur]

Despite adding up over 50 percent of the vote, Rubio hopes to take advantage of the fact that Trump and Cruz try to appeal to similar bases, which will divide that over fifty percent in half while he gets the rest (if the other "establishment" candidates drop out). That could help him win future states. It's interesting to see how this will all play out.

Btw did anyone else read about Hillary winning some state delegates based on coin tosses? NPR claims that doesn't tell the whole story, but regardless, the Democratic Iowa caucus is far more complicated than the Republican caucus process in how they allocate their delegates...

Well, if you add up Trump, Cruz, Paul and Carson, it's over 65%; so the "traditional kosher establishment vote" is hovering on 35%. So even a full on "all with Rubio" coalition would struggle to beat Trump or Cruz in some States. Plus, it's possible that one of them will quit down the road; and last, there is not guarantee that 66-million-in-the-bank Bush will just up and go so easily. And what if Kasich, who wasn't actually trying in Iowa, finishes second in more Establishment-orientes New Hampshire? Will he then quit and let Rubio take it all?

Ie: Adding up voters based on what we know from Iowa is not very precise. Let's wait a bit.

 

[Kanzler]

I wonder if that's actually true - that Trump was just in it to promote his brand and now he's in too deep.

 

[OmegaRuby and AlphaSapphire]

I wonder if that's actually true - that Trump was just in it to promote his brand and now he's in too deep.

People love to joke about it like in this comedy show, but no one really knows. Bill Clinton is said to have been that suggested he run (well Trump is said to have contemplated for awhile (teasing he'll run back in 2012 but didn't go for it then) it so he might've gone to him for advice) though.

Well Rand dropped out, so the GOP field can all fit in one stage now...though I wish he had stuck in longer. He was my favorite candidate :(

 

[Somewhere_]

My first choice is Paul. My second is Gary Johnson from the Libertarian Party. The rest I really dislike. As for Democrats, I like Hillary the most. For Republicans, maybe Ted Cruz? Idk, but his foreign policy is terrible and he skipped the Audit the Fed bill. And I do not like Rubio or Trump at all. If it came down to Trump vs. Hillary, they are both very similar economically. I think maybe Hillary because her immigration plan is better in my opinion.

 

[Ivysaur]

My first choice is Paul. My second is Gary Johnson from the Libertarian Party. The rest I really dislike. As for Democrats, I like Hillary the most. For Republicans, maybe Ted Cruz? Idk, but his foreign policy is terrible and he skipped the Audit the Fed bill. And I do not like Rubio or Trump at all. If it came down to Trump vs. Hillary, they are both very similar economically. I think maybe Hillary because her immigration plan is better in my opinion.

Welp, I'm afraid you lost your first choice some hours ago- Rand is going to try and salvage his Senate seat in his increasingly looming race at home instead of going for a Presidential race that has clearly slipped off. So go and vote Johnson if you want to make a point (which is something that should happen more), because I'm afraid you are out of options with the two majors now.