Do you think Soviet Union is coming back?
- Thread starter LauriJ
- Start date
The Void
hiiiii
- 1,416
- Posts
- 14
- Years
- MOTHA RUSSIA
- Seen May 29, 2019
Not anytime soon. NATO (well, mostly US) is too large to allow that, and any attempt at imperialism could cost them dearly. Russia is not North Korea to go crazily plunging into a war like that.
It's possible. I have no idea how likely it is; I don't think that's something anyone without an extensive background in international relations could provide a useful answer to.
If they do, though, I don't think it'll be a return to the Cold War. I think nobody on either side desires that, and that means it probably won't happen. I could be wrong there, too, though.
If they do, though, I don't think it'll be a return to the Cold War. I think nobody on either side desires that, and that means it probably won't happen. I could be wrong there, too, though.
Ivysaur
Grass dinosaur extraordinaire
- 21,082
- Posts
- 17
- Years
- Age 33
- He/him
- Madrid, Europe
- Seen May 4, 2024
Putin doesn't want to bring back the Soviet Union because Communism failed so hard he doesn't want to go back there. He would really want to bring back the early 1900's Russian Empire though, because he needs a "safety area" between Russia itself and all the "enemies" in the West. I *don't* really want to pull off a Godwin but the parallels with Germany taking over neighbour countries to "protect their citizens" is so eerily similar. Luckily for us, Russia is much weaker and dependedn on the west than Germany was by then.
Peace depends on whether he can be stopped politically before he goes that far ahead. Right now, gas sales to Europe make up for a ridiculously huge percentage of their GDP so they stand to lose a lot and become something like Iran if borders are closed. Sadly, Putin has the James Bond-ish mentality of the Cold War, being a former KGB spy and all, so it's not likely he'll want to negotiate until he has no other chance, and even so he has been playing the "we are the poor country everybody hates us if we have any problems is because of them" card so it will take a long while.
Peace depends on whether he can be stopped politically before he goes that far ahead. Right now, gas sales to Europe make up for a ridiculously huge percentage of their GDP so they stand to lose a lot and become something like Iran if borders are closed. Sadly, Putin has the James Bond-ish mentality of the Cold War, being a former KGB spy and all, so it's not likely he'll want to negotiate until he has no other chance, and even so he has been playing the "we are the poor country everybody hates us if we have any problems is because of them" card so it will take a long while.
The Void
hiiiii
- 1,416
- Posts
- 14
- Years
- MOTHA RUSSIA
- Seen May 29, 2019
True, the trade sanctions on Russia hit real hard.
But what if we hypothesize that Putin does in fact try to take over Ukraine. Will NATO react to it, and if so - how long will it take for NATO to actually do something about a Putin in the offense? NATO has a huge bureaucracy to feed, and as long as they can't prove that Russia is the one behind an offensive, they can't attack Russia nor impose sanctions.
Putin is not stupid - he definitely knows how to play the political game, and I fear that he might outsmart us all just like he did with Crimea.
Ivysaur
Grass dinosaur extraordinaire
- 21,082
- Posts
- 17
- Years
- Age 33
- He/him
- Madrid, Europe
- Seen May 4, 2024
But he didn't "outsmart" anybody, he just went ahead before anybody realized what was happening- and even before he could asess the consequences. He's not playing a political game, he's just chanring on, bully style. But, by doing so, he has utterly alienated the US and the EU, which funnel billions into their GDP every year. The Russian economy would implode in a matter of months if the EU stops buying gas from them and the US bans their banks and oil companies from doing business with them. Putin's plans depend on everybody else being too scared to fully stand up- which is a risk.
GoldenHouou
Abstract Nonsense
- 586
- Posts
- 18
- Years
- Page 26
- Seen Aug 27, 2018
No, it's not, and anyone seriously fearing Soviet Union v2 is freaking paranoid and should get on with the times.
Kind of sick of the west demonizing Russia as the "bad guy" in the conflict in the first place, to be honest. Neither side is innocent, and the amount of propaganda (from both sides) is just ridiculous. Russia is not trying to take over the world or ♥♥♥♥ on your waffles.
Kind of sick of the west demonizing Russia as the "bad guy" in the conflict in the first place, to be honest. Neither side is innocent, and the amount of propaganda (from both sides) is just ridiculous. Russia is not trying to take over the world or ♥♥♥♥ on your waffles.
But while Putin just "went ahead, bully style" the west was unable to do anything about it. While "unidentifiable" Russian troops that Putin didn't acknowledge marched into Crimea, the west could not take serious action because of this lack of identity. We knew that they were Russian troops, but officially we didn't know, so we couldn't do anything about it. We have imposed some sanctions, but these are not enough at all. Just as you're saying, a ton of trade sanctions would probably cause Iran-like situations and destroy their economy. The EU, however is so reliant on Russian gas, that it would also have massive consequences for the economic growth that europe wants so badly. This is not a simple situation, and there is no simple solution.
- 123
- Posts
- 10
- Years
- Seen Jun 20, 2016
I'm up for it if he brings back that amazing National Anthem word for word, it's the GOAT.
- 3,509
- Posts
- 15
- Years
- Seen Nov 5, 2017
The West are able to do something, they just chose not to. We are not so hopeless and if the situation calls for it serious economic sanctions can be dealt to Russia, as has already been admitted in this thread. That's why Russia didn't just march into Ukraine, Soviet style, because we're not in the 20th century any more and Putin knows that. Putin has always been a vocal supporter of the Soviet Union, he is ex-KGB and has been outspoken about "the glory days" since he first came to power. It's nothing new. Russia invaded Georgia outright in 2008, and has a continued presence there which seems to have been swept under the rug and ignored. The whole thing with Ukraine is just the same old Putin causing trouble again, not a returning Soviet Union...
Nobody did anything over Crimea because technically the legitimacy of the current Ukraine government is no more than the "Russian invaders" they're just the "good guys" because they support the EU. Obviously Putin's reason for invading the Crimea for the benefit and protection of ethnic Russians was a guise, we know that, but it's a good one. Putin's actions are simply an exercise of muscle and nothing more, he likes people to remind people he exists. There is little value in Crimea for the west and they know Putin isn't stupid enough to risk outright war, but if provoked he will bite, and Crimea is not worth all of that trouble for the EU. That is why next to nothing was done.
Last edited:
I fully agree on that one. In this situation, the benefits of doing something about Crimea were clearly outweighed by the negative consequences of high sanctioning. I just think that NATO needs to set the line somewhere. The line has to be very clear so that Putin will not even think of crossing it. We don't want a new Hitler (not saying that Putin is evil or antisemitic, just talking about military tactics) who is constantly trying out the borders.
If Putin knows that crossing the line will ruin his country's economy, he will not cross the line.
The Void
hiiiii
- 1,416
- Posts
- 14
- Years
- MOTHA RUSSIA
- Seen May 29, 2019
Countries outisde of NATO's reach like Moldavia would definitely be the first to fall, if ever such a situation should happen.
I have a Russian friend who I've spoken to at length about this and it's a really interesting topic. I've never been a fan of Russia, admittedly, but the events of Crimea and in general Russia's attitude towards Europe have been disconcerting to me. The parallels to Germany circa WWII are there, but so are the differences.
Russia is simply put a strange country when it comes to international relations. Their economy is extremely reliant on countries that it acts aggressively towards, and the result is the EU openly admitting they desire to reduce their dependence on Russian gas, which is a disaster for Putin. Add that to the fact that a fossil fuel-reliant economy cannot last forever and there are some serious problems coming down the pipeline (not intended) for Russia before we even get into political isolation resulting from further acts of aggression.
Russia aren't in a great place, and it's hard to see what they are aiming to achieve with their international policy. The "Eurasian Union" is never going to be USSR 2.0 and the more volatile the country acts the less trade-friendly it becomes. Logically war isn't a thing that should happen. Putin has no allies he can rely on, as much as his relations with anti-western states are and always have been bizarrely amiable (coincidentally?).
It's just difficult to see any reason for Russia to act aggressively. I think Crimea and the Ukrainian situation in general are attempts to see how far they can push their luck. Once they know they've crossed the line they'll probably creep back across it and be happy with what they've got. Or at least, that's what I hope.
I just feel bad for the Ukraine in all this. They're caught in a power struggle that really has nothing to do with them.
Russia is simply put a strange country when it comes to international relations. Their economy is extremely reliant on countries that it acts aggressively towards, and the result is the EU openly admitting they desire to reduce their dependence on Russian gas, which is a disaster for Putin. Add that to the fact that a fossil fuel-reliant economy cannot last forever and there are some serious problems coming down the pipeline (not intended) for Russia before we even get into political isolation resulting from further acts of aggression.
Russia aren't in a great place, and it's hard to see what they are aiming to achieve with their international policy. The "Eurasian Union" is never going to be USSR 2.0 and the more volatile the country acts the less trade-friendly it becomes. Logically war isn't a thing that should happen. Putin has no allies he can rely on, as much as his relations with anti-western states are and always have been bizarrely amiable (coincidentally?).
It's just difficult to see any reason for Russia to act aggressively. I think Crimea and the Ukrainian situation in general are attempts to see how far they can push their luck. Once they know they've crossed the line they'll probably creep back across it and be happy with what they've got. Or at least, that's what I hope.
I just feel bad for the Ukraine in all this. They're caught in a power struggle that really has nothing to do with them.
The Void
hiiiii
- 1,416
- Posts
- 14
- Years
- MOTHA RUSSIA
- Seen May 29, 2019
"A war in which there will be no victor"? Russia clearly overpowers Ukraine 3 to 1. And while it's true NATO could intervene, they most probably won't.
Kung Fu Ferret
The Unbound
- 1,387
- Posts
- 18
- Years
- He/Him
- Digital World
- Seen yesterday
As a communist, I wish the Soviet Union would return with even more power to the proletariat. In fact, if the "Cold War" was still happening and Communism was still controlling Russia, I'd be rooting for THEM all the way!
If Russia wants to take parts of Ukraine, good for them, they have my support.
If Russia wants to take parts of Ukraine, good for them, they have my support.
Sir Codin
Guest
- 0
- Posts
Ah yes, the paranoia, espionage, nuclear tensions, forceful redistribution of wealth at the expense of the market economy, and the eventual extinction of producers. Not to mention the system thriving on coercion and concepts that can only be put into practice by means of totalitarianism.
Truly communism is such a wonderful concept. 8=====>
