They will only remake Hoenn if few Hoenn Pokémon are catchable in XY... Just like how it was when the other remakes were released. People like to deny it was because of it, but that's just wishful thinking. FRLG were released because you couldn't get most Kanto Pokémon in RS, and HGSS were released because even the Platinum Sinnoh Dex had very few Johto Pokémon.
Besides, the storyline of Hoenn is a huge obstacle to a remake... Not only the canon is the third version, but also the Hoenn games are chronologically at the very beginning of the timeline, together with FRLG... If XY are way ahead of Hoenn in the timeline (as I suspect they're ahead of Unova even, and Unova is ahead of everything so far), then Hoenn remakes are a no go because you can't integrate them with the XY storyline.
Gamefreak plans ahead of time, so when a remake is going to happen, there are usually hints of it... Absence of most Kanto Pokémon in RS, for one, and the red Gyarados in DPP, for two. If there are many Hoenn Pokémon in XY, forget a remake.
Deffo Hoenn. But if it's a 3DS exclusive, then fudge it.
ofc a Hoenn remake, why?
cuz kanto and johto already had hgss dont u see? if they are to make one for the 3ds, that'll be in some years time
i have to disagree with some of the points you made:
availability doesn't really decide anything when you take into account the fact that most (if not all) pokemon from gen2 were available in gen3 alone so it doesn't prove much and honestly that whole "gyarados hint" is as much of a hint as some of the stuff i saw on r/s remake speculation thread. the only difference being we had the g/s remakes but not the r/s ones.
but if they do those remakes after the next games you'll probably see ****loads of ppl saying: "see? the hints were real!"
not saying i believe those hints to be true but rather that none of them prove anything, at all.
now, i don't want you to think i'm just trying to blindly defend the remakes. in fact, as far as i'm concerned they can skip them altogether and go straight for a 7th gen after this one cause i'm not dying for more remakes and, unlike some, i'm not afraid of reaching the 1000 pokemon milestone nor that they might run out of ideas =P
other than that, i agree there are some obstacles to overcome in order to make it possible but at the same time, judging by the surprises we've had and the consistent quality of their work, i think it's too soon to make any assumptions.
just though i'd point out some possible flaws in your logic and hope you don't take anything the wrong way, just trying to be constructive towards one of the few good posts. ;)
EDIT: While doing some quick research for this post I came across a post from 2004 that said the DS wasn't going to last. Well, we're in 2013 and the DS had 4 models released, and big budget games released until last year, and it also outsold the PSP. It was so successful that now we have the 3DS which is crushing the Vita sales-wise. So much for those futurologists who keep trying to tell Nintendo what they should do...
one could say the same happens on the gba titles but truth is loss of time-based events is nothing compared to loss of data (saves).
wonder why no one talks about this.
i know the batteries can be replaced but the developers clearly didn't have that in mind and not everyone has access to that info. plus, the battery replacement process isn't even something THAT easy to do as you can easily damage the cartridge.
i don't really think hg/ss alone are an obstacle to your "new adventure in kanto" idea, at all.
as far as i can see, the biggest issue would be the fact that the region of kanto by itself wouldn't create much of an impact regarding nostalgia and a new adventure in a region so overused would, almost certainly, not be profitable enough to make it a good alternative to a new gen or a simple remake.
also, taking into account they base their regions on real areas, the ammount of work they'd have to put in creating your idea opposed to a brand new gen would be essencially the same (new region since there's almost nothing to recyle due to the console transition and graphic differences already shown by x/y, new characters, new plot, etc, etc), which only reduces it's viability even more.
simple remakes on the other hand leave the developers with something to work with giving them a headstart, allowing some development time and money to be saved.
lastly, unless they master the dev-kit for 3ds by the time they truly finish this new project, i don't think they'll go with remakes that soon.
but 3ds has been around for a while now and i suspect they started working on the new gen far earlier than what most ppl would expect.
reason why i don't believe we'll get short/poor games when it comes to content like some suggest, even with the huge leap from DS to 3ds.