[Sword & Shield] Modest or timid nature for Choice Specs Dragapult?

[Shuckle99]

I recently asked on Pokémon Database if a modest or timid nature for Choice Specs Dragapult was generally better in competitive single battles in Sw/Sh and gen 8 OU singles in Showdown. I received one answer in favor of timid and another in favor of modest. Here is the reasoning why both natures are good for Specs Dragapult.

Timid:
• Sp. Attack is already boosted by Choice Specs
• Multiple mons can outspeed and OHKO Modest Dragapult, but not Timid Dragapult
• SpA Stat with 252 EVs: 299 x 1.5 = 449 SpA with choice specs
• Spe stat with 252 EVs: 421

Modest:
• Dragapult already has an insane speed stat
• Modest nature allows it to make up for its lower SpA stat than its Atk stat
• SpA stat with 252 EVs: 328 x 1.5 = 492 SpA with choice specs
• Spe stat with 252 EVs: 383

I should mention that I do run a sticky web team, so Modest seems like it would be the obvious choice. However, my sticky web setter (shuckle) can be KO'd by multi-hit attacks before it can set it and sticky web can be removed by Defog and rapid spin users. Here is my Dragapult's information:

Dragapult @ Choice specs
Ability: Infiltrator
Nature: Modest/Timid (Still unsure)
Ev Spread: 252 SpA, 252 Spe, 4 HP
IVs: All 31
• Draco meteor
• Shadow ball (Go-to move)
• Fire blast
• Thunderbolt

So my question is this: Is there a noticeable difference between a 449 SpA stat for Dragapult (Timid) and a 492 SpA stat (Modest) or would both usually be able to OHKO with Specs + STAB Shadow Ball (excluding dark and normal types)? This will decide for me which nature is better.

Thank you in advance.

 

[faf]

With Modest, Dragapult is able to do this which Timid is unable to do:
252+ SpA Choice Specs Dragapult Flamethrower vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Corviknight: 216-256 (54 - 64%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
252+ SpA Choice Specs Dragapult Draco Meteor over 2 turns vs. 248 HP / 44 SpD Mandibuzz: 434-514 (102.6 - 121.5%) -- guaranteed KO in 2 turns
252+ SpA Choice Specs Dragapult Shadow Ball vs. 252 HP / 4 SpD Clefable: 195-231 (49.4 - 58.6%) -- 98.8% chance to 2HKO (favourable roll without Leftovers, otherwise it's an almost 70% chance)
252+ SpA Choice Specs Dragapult Thunderbolt vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Toxapex: 152-180 (50 - 59.2%) -- 74.6% chance to 2HKO after Black Sludge recovery (yeah, it's a roll but it can securely grab a 2HKO if its item has been removed, also secured with Stealth Rock up)

But it honestly depends on your team, if you need a Pokemon that can break the above Pokemon (if you struggle with them) then Modest is the way to go. However, Timid has a perk of outspeeding scarved less than base 78 Speed Pokemon (Dracovish is notable for BSS) should you struggle with them as well as Speed tie with opposing Dragapult.