you're the one talking numbers, not me, and it doesn't matter how long a counsel has been out, every Christmas has a huge bump in sales numbers, and they did shut down everything AFTER christmas, and i do mean everything cuz Bank and transfer didn't return to japan till a few days later. And it's kinda their job in anticipate when a something like this happens, they have projections for their holiday sales, and i doubt they even met those so they still should have been prepared. Playtesting is whatever the company wants it to be, in nintendos case, it would be closed and probably solely internal. But that obviously didn't happen before it was released cuz some of the bug seem pretty easy to catch.
where are you getting your information exactly? yes consoles have a huge bump in sales at Christmas, however what console can you name that has been out for a YEAR that outsells it's own sales from the previous year as well as the entire year between christmases? None, that's how many. You keep glossing over the fact that Nintendo released the Wii U LAST YEAR and they didn't have problems anywhere near the scale this was, so why would they automatically assume they would this year? Yes, they should, but honestly, the Wii U can out last year, the 2DS and Pokemon came out in OCTOBER, there really wasn't anything earth shattering that came out for Nintendo this Christmas and they presumed that they had enough bandwidth to handle it based on the sales they already made. YOU didn't know the servers were going to crash and YOU seem to know more than Nintendo does! ;-)
Once again, EVERYTHING did NOT shut down (where did you hear that?) only the eShop and the Nintendo ID servers shut down. The Pokebank and GTS were perfectly fine throughout, they took pokebank down in order to make people STOP signing up for the service and clogging the Nintendo network every time they logged into the service, but everyone that had it already could use it perfectly fine, as was evidenced by countless people (such as me) getting their first pokebank starter pokemon on Dec 24 and continuing on until getting all of the pokebank pokemon on Dec 27, so what part of that says to you that "everything" was out? Trading was obviously not out if everyone is still trading. Even Gamesync didn't go out during that time, and that thing is ALWAYS going out at the best of times. "Everything" didn't come down, just eShop and the Nintendo Network.
And the fact that you think that internal playstesting is enough to estimate real world usage just illustrates you have no idea what a server is or how it functions. You open your computer for 1 person on the internet to use to look inside your computer and it takes system resources to handle the information the user is accessing but it's not much more than you using your comptuer at home. Put on 10 people all accessing information at the same time, there's gonna be some slowdown probably. Put 100 people on all accessing information, there's going to be a substantial speed down, you put on 10 million people, your computer is going to shut down. Internal testing cannot simulate tens of millions of simultaneous connections of tens of millions of people all signing up for new and existing Nintendo accounts, many of whom are linking memberships between devices while others having just one membership on one device or the other. Why on earth would you think they could? Real world testing can only happen in teh real world, which is what happened and it shut down the nintendo network ID servers and eShop servers. The GTS was perfectly fine all throughout the shut down.
Since you seem to know that the glitch was pretty easy to catch, explain in GRAPHIC detail how they could have fixed this problem based on sales figures for consoles that were 1 and 2 years old, for games that were released 2 months prior and all logic would dictate that most of the people that wanted any of these would have already bought it and set up their Nintendo IDs anywhere from a couple months ago to a full year ago, linked them to both game systems and set up payment information and NOT wait until Christmas day to do so. If all these things came out at Christmas, then yes, they should have expected it, but when this years Xmas Wii U sales outsell last years AS WELL AS all the sales of Wii Us throughout the past year, who could possibly have seen that coming? its a console that's over a year old. You would expect this years to be, AT BEST, the same as last year's sales (After all, nothing new has come out for it recently besides Super Mario 3D world, everything else that was good came out earlier than Christmas) and considering the MILLIONS of people that bought Pokemon at launch, it's a pretty reasonable expectation that Nintendo would have presumed they had had enough bandwidth to handle it in the first place, which they didn't.