6th Gen Shiny Pokemon Chances X and Y

[Dark Phantom Samurai]

As we all know Pokemon X and Y Increased the Shiny chances much more than in Previous Generations. With what it seems that most shiny chances have been doubled.

In all games Generation 5 and under, the standard rate for a random encounter was an absolutely, super high chance of just 1 in 8192 or 0.01...% Which is why so many players ended up getting so dam many :) literally you go ask any player in the world right now who has played any of the games before X and Y and they'll certainly say they have found so many shinnies they it was almost like they never found any at all XD

All jokes aside...
they're doubled {Almost} to 1/4069 or... 0.02%
Though while the actual odds are at 99.98% chance that you wont find a shiny and of course 99% alone is already rare enough. Many more players are reporting that they are obtaining many more shiny Pokemon than ever. {Sadly some luckier than some... ;-;}

The main point of why i post this thread is to actually get an understanding of the exact odds of obtaining shinnies and what increases them

1. Poke Radar:
With the Radar re-introduced into the game. X and Y's shiny rates have obviously been halved so is it just a natural prediction to assume that each of the radar's chains are simply doubled? An example would be at a chain of 40 the odds previously, were 1 in 200/0.5%. So with the rate doubled in X and Y does the rate at 40 now increase odds to a much more pleasing 1 in 100 or 1% Chance?

2. Masuda Method:
The process of grabbing two pokemon both of alternate languages and putting them in the day care thus increasing the chance to 1/1365. However this was in Black and White, and now the chances have been increased, according to Bulbapedia to: 1/683 or 0.14...% Without using the Shinny charm and to a very healthy 1/512 or 0.19...% Chance with the shinny charm. But visit the page yourself and the information for this evidence is empirical. So I suppose the question is:
Is this actually the rate? Smogon apparently conducted a test on this, and it seems that the Masuda method combined with the shiny charm does seem to increase the odds. But is this actually true? from my experiences is seems so however what do you say?

3. Fish Chaining
While they're is not much evidence going around right now about this method, the key points to this method are to have a Pokemon with suction cups first in your party and to fish in an enclosed area. It seems that nobody knows the exact odds as of this post, so for now empirical evidence is your best bet. Though I cannot locate any evidence, if someone has some insight to this may you please respond.

4. Friend Safari
Well they're is not much to say here other than if you stay in here long enough you should get a shiny as the odds in here are apparently 1/512 or 0.19...% I have not tried it for myself, but many players seem to say they end up finding a fair few shines here after quite a bit of hours. I do believe someone on smogon tried it out for himself, but apparently they're were some cases where even he did not encounter one shinny even after more than 2000 encounters. Link to this page:
https://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/data-on-the-friend-safari-shiny-rate.3502279/
Friend safari work for you too? or is it just your good luck/bad luck.

5. Tipping
Though while they're is absolutely no evidence that i can see about this, does tipping actually do anything to effect shiny rates? I don't think it does but they're is a mixed opinion about it. From my perspective it must do something... I have found 5 Shiny Pokemon from random encounters. Never would I have thought I'd live to encounter One. So I'm assuming it does something... but again no real evidence, be nice to know if anyone does know :)

Of course encountering a single shiny is an already pleasing enough as it is. Its a good feeling that you have rolled that 4069 sided dice and ended up rolling the number that grants your game shiny.

All Evidence and Empirical Experience would by highly appreciated

-Cheers! :)

 

[Howmander]

As we all know Pokemon X and Y Increased the Shiny chances much more than in Previous Generations. With what it seems that most shiny chances have been doubled.

In all games Generation 5 and under, the standard rate for a random encounter was an absolutely, super high chance of just 1 in 8192 or 0.01...% Which is why so many players ended up getting so dam many :) literally you go ask any player in the world right now who has played any of the games before X and Y and they'll certainly say they have found so many shinnies they it was almost like they never found any at all XD

All jokes aside...
they're doubled {Almost} to 1/4069 or... 0.02%
Though while the actual odds are at 99.98% chance that you wont find a shiny and of course 99% alone is already rare enough. Many more players are reporting that they are obtaining many more shiny Pokemon than ever. {Sadly some luckier than some... ;-;}

The main point of why i post this thread is to actually get an understanding of the exact odds of obtaining shinnies and what increases them

1. Poke Radar:
With the Radar re-introduced into the game. X and Y's shiny rates have obviously been halved so is it just a natural prediction to assume that each of the radar's chains are simply doubled? An example would be at a chain of 40 the odds previously, were 1 in 200/0.5%. So with the rate doubled in X and Y does the rate at 40 now increase odds to a much more pleasing 1 in 100 or 1% Chance?

2. Masuda Method:
The process of grabbing two pokemon both of alternate languages and putting them in the day care thus increasing the chance to 1/1365. However this was in Black and White, and now the chances have been increased, according to Bulbapedia to: 1/683 or 0.14...% Without using the Shinny charm and to a very healthy 1/512 or 0.19...% Chance with the shinny charm. But visit the page yourself and the information for this evidence is empirical. So I suppose the question is:
Is this actually the rate? Smogon apparently conducted a test on this, and it seems that the Masuda method combined with the shiny charm does seem to increase the odds. But is this actually true? from my experiences is seems so however what do you say?

3. Fish Chaining
While they're is not much evidence going around right now about this method, the key points to this method are to have a Pokemon with suction cups first in your party and to fish in an enclosed area. It seems that nobody knows the exact odds as of this post, so for now empirical evidence is your best bet. Though I cannot locate any evidence, if someone has some insight to this may you please respond.

4. Friend Safari
Well they're is not much to say here other than if you stay in here long enough you should get a shiny as the odds in here are apparently 1/512 or 0.19...% I have not tried it for myself, but many players seem to say they end up finding a fair few shines here after quite a bit of hours. I do believe someone on smogon tried it out for himself, but apparently they're were some cases where even he did not encounter one shinny even after more than 2000 encounters. Link to this page:
https://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/data-on-the-friend-safari-shiny-rate.3502279/
Friend safari work for you too? or is it just your good luck/bad luck.

5. Tipping
Though while they're is absolutely no evidence that i can see about this, does tipping actually do anything to effect shiny rates? I don't think it does but they're is a mixed opinion about it. From my perspective it must do something... I have found 5 Shiny Pokemon from random encounters. Never would I have thought I'd live to encounter One. So I'm assuming it does something... but again no real evidence, be nice to know if anyone does know :)

Of course encountering a single shiny is an already pleasing enough as it is. Its a good feeling that you have rolled that 4069 sided dice and ended up rolling the number that grants your game shiny.

All Evidence and Empirical Experience would by highly appreciated

-Cheers! :)

One thing about the tipping is that I don't think it has anything to do with Shiny encounters, the reason I think that is because when you log into the PGL, in the bottom left of your browser window it used to display a Vivillon and kept a running tally of how many miles around the world Vivillons had travelled, well a few months after the site started showing that, they then announced that when the vivillon miles had reached 1 million (or whatever the number was) they would give out the Fancy Pattern Vivillon, which is what they did. Now that area where the Vivillon used to be listed now lists how much a certain waiter has been tipped worldwide from all the tippers, so I would presume that the tips may add up to another pokemon giveaway when they reach a certain amount.

 

[TriforceCourage]

As we all know Pokemon X and Y Increased the Shiny chances much more than in Previous Generations. With what it seems that most shiny chances have been doubled.

In all games Generation 5 and under, the standard rate for a random encounter was an absolutely, super high chance of just 1 in 8192 or 0.01...% Which is why so many players ended up getting so dam many :) literally you go ask any player in the world right now who has played any of the games before X and Y and they'll certainly say they have found so many shinnies they it was almost like they never found any at all XD

All jokes aside...
they're doubled {Almost} to 1/4069 or... 0.02%
Though while the actual odds are at 99.98% chance that you wont find a shiny and of course 99% alone is already rare enough. Many more players are reporting that they are obtaining many more shiny Pokemon than ever. {Sadly some luckier than some... ;-;}

The main point of why i post this thread is to actually get an understanding of the exact odds of obtaining shinnies and what increases them

1. Poke Radar:
With the Radar re-introduced into the game. X and Y's shiny rates have obviously been halved so is it just a natural prediction to assume that each of the radar's chains are simply doubled? An example would be at a chain of 40 the odds previously, were 1 in 200/0.5%. So with the rate doubled in X and Y does the rate at 40 now increase odds to a much more pleasing 1 in 100 or 1% Chance?

2. Masuda Method:
The process of grabbing two pokemon both of alternate languages and putting them in the day care thus increasing the chance to 1/1365. However this was in Black and White, and now the chances have been increased, according to Bulbapedia to: 1/683 or 0.14...% Without using the Shinny charm and to a very healthy 1/512 or 0.19...% Chance with the shinny charm. But visit the page yourself and the information for this evidence is empirical. So I suppose the question is:
Is this actually the rate? Smogon apparently conducted a test on this, and it seems that the Masuda method combined with the shiny charm does seem to increase the odds. But is this actually true? from my experiences is seems so however what do you say?

3. Fish Chaining
While they're is not much evidence going around right now about this method, the key points to this method are to have a Pokemon with suction cups first in your party and to fish in an enclosed area. It seems that nobody knows the exact odds as of this post, so for now empirical evidence is your best bet. Though I cannot locate any evidence, if someone has some insight to this may you please respond.

4. Friend Safari
Well they're is not much to say here other than if you stay in here long enough you should get a shiny as the odds in here are apparently 1/512 or 0.19...% I have not tried it for myself, but many players seem to say they end up finding a fair few shines here after quite a bit of hours. I do believe someone on smogon tried it out for himself, but apparently they're were some cases where even he did not encounter one shinny even after more than 2000 encounters. Link to this page:
https://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/data-on-the-friend-safari-shiny-rate.3502279/
Friend safari work for you too? or is it just your good luck/bad luck.

5. Tipping
Though while they're is absolutely no evidence that i can see about this, does tipping actually do anything to effect shiny rates? I don't think it does but they're is a mixed opinion about it. From my perspective it must do something... I have found 5 Shiny Pokemon from random encounters. Never would I have thought I'd live to encounter One. So I'm assuming it does something... but again no real evidence, be nice to know if anyone does know :)

Of course encountering a single shiny is an already pleasing enough as it is. Its a good feeling that you have rolled that 4069 sided dice and ended up rolling the number that grants your game shiny.

All Evidence and Empirical Experience would by highly appreciated

-Cheers! :)

I heard the Friend Safari shiny encounter is quicker when used with a pokemon with Illuminate and the encounter O power. It doesnt actually change the percentage rate but shiny encounters are based on the amount of encounters. So it definatly speeds the process.

Fishing Chaining has been confirmed. Although the process is easier then using Pokeradar to chain. You use Suction Cups in fron of your party to be able to snag a pokemon everytime without fail(unless you press the button too early) also to fish in a corner. Basically you keep chaining 1 pokemon ex:Carvanaha until you find a shiny. What distinguishes this from pokerader is that you can run from battle and go into your bag(not sure on this one) without breaking your chain. Warning! Do not be on your bike or Roller skates when doing this because you wont be able to chain.

 

[TriforceCourage]

One thing about the tipping is that I don't think it has anything to do with Shiny encounters, the reason I think that is because when you log into the PGL, in the bottom left of your browser window it used to display a Vivillon and kept a running tally of how many miles around the world Vivillons had travelled, well a few months after the site started showing that, they then announced that when the vivillon miles had reached 1 million (or whatever the number was) they would give out the Fancy Pattern Vivillon, which is what they did. Now that area where the Vivillon used to be listed now lists how much a certain waiter has been tipped worldwide from all the tippers, so I would presume that the tips may add up to another pokemon giveaway when they reach a certain amount.

That giveaway had nothing to do with tipping. It had to do with how many Vivillons were traded Via GTS(not wonder trade). So when the marker hit 1 million Vivillons traded they would create the event for the fancy pattern Vivillon and when it talks about miles it means pokemiles the points you buy certain items with. Tipping has been reported to help shiny encounter, although like he said it doesnt have solid evidence or been confirmed anywhere. People say the more you tip the higher the rate is. But it resets every 24 hours supposedly. Gamefreak (besides the Masuda Method) had not confirmed any shiny encounter increases at all for XY. The only reason Masuda Method was confirmed was because Junichi Masuda wanted to encourage over country trading(same with wonder trade). Pokeradar and Friend safari was tested on by specialists therefore information was cofirmed through mathmatics.

 

[Howmander]

That giveaway had nothing to do with tipping. It had to do with how many Vivillons were traded Via GTS(not wonder trade). So when the marker hit 1 million Vivillons traded they would create the event for the fancy pattern Vivillon and when it talks about miles it means pokemiles the points you buy certain items with. Tipping has been reported to help shiny encounter, although like he said it doesnt have solid evidence or been confirmed anywhere. People say the more you tip the higher the rate is. But it resets every 24 hours supposedly. Gamefreak (besides the Masuda Method) had not confirmed any shiny encounter increases at all for XY. The only reason Masuda Method was confirmed was because Junichi Masuda wanted to encourage over country trading(same with wonder trade). Pokeradar and Friend safari was tested on by specialists therefore information was cofirmed through mathmatics.

Please read my whole post, especially the part where I said: "when you log into the PGL, in the bottom left of your browser window it used to display a Vivillon and kept a running tally of how many miles around the world Vivillons had travelled, well a few months after the site started showing that, they then announced that when the vivillon miles had reached 1 million (or whatever the number was) they would give out the Fancy Pattern Vivillon"

Where in my entire post did I say tipping had anything to do with the Fancy Vivillon? I said: "Now that area where the Vivillon used to be listed now lists how much a certain waiter has been tipped worldwide from all the tippers, so I would presume that the tips may add up to another pokemon giveaway when they reach a certain amount." particularly the "Now that area where the Vivillon used to be listed now lists how much a certain waiter has been tipped worldwide from all the tippers, so I would presume that the tips may add up to another pokemon giveaway when they reach a certain amount." at no part anywhere did I say that tipping had anything to do with Vivillons other than the spot the Vivillons USED to be listed now lists the waiter, so if the Vivillons resulted in a vivillon giveaway, my PRESUMPTION was that the waiter forshadowed a SEPARATE pokemon giveaway.

Anyway, my two shiny encounters in one day (hoppip in a horde, Skiddo by itself) and the fact I bred 2 shinies within the same day (Fennekin and Chespin) to me says that tipping has nothing to do with shiny encounter rates, because since I do tip, It's been like 3 times in the entire time I owned the game because it just doesn't come up that often. Also my half a box of shinies and box of event giveaways that were traded from shinies I found say otherwise too. What I personally found was the highest shiny encounter rate was game time. Within every 100 hours I would keep running into at least 1 shiny. (so within the first 100 hours, I found a shiny Scatterbug, within the next 100 hours (so 200 hours on the game timer) I found a shiny Fletchling, and so on and so on. It's about as scientific as saying tipping increases the shiny encounter rate (namely that "It worked for me, so it must be true" school of thought! ;-) )

 

[Kelton2]

I've never seen a shiny, but I always tip 1000 because I read the rumor on the TVtropes Urban Legend of Zelda page before I even got the game. Still, 0.02% is too high. It makes moments like https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hlF_RxM-_D4 less amazing.

 

[TriforceCourage]

Please read my whole post, especially the part where I said: "when you log into the PGL, in the bottom left of your browser window it used to display a Vivillon and kept a running tally of how many miles around the world Vivillons had travelled, well a few months after the site started showing that, they then announced that when the vivillon miles had reached 1 million (or whatever the number was) they would give out the Fancy Pattern Vivillon"

Where in my entire post did I say tipping had anything to do with the Fancy Vivillon? I said: "Now that area where the Vivillon used to be listed now lists how much a certain waiter has been tipped worldwide from all the tippers, so I would presume that the tips may add up to another pokemon giveaway when they reach a certain amount." particularly the "Now that area where the Vivillon used to be listed now lists how much a certain waiter has been tipped worldwide from all the tippers, so I would presume that the tips may add up to another pokemon giveaway when they reach a certain amount." at no part anywhere did I say that tipping had anything to do with Vivillons other than the spot the Vivillons USED to be listed now lists the waiter, so if the Vivillons resulted in a vivillon giveaway, my PRESUMPTION was that the waiter forshadowed a SEPARATE pokemon giveaway.

Anyway, my two shiny encounters in one day (hoppip in a horde, Skiddo by itself) and the fact I bred 2 shinies within the same day (Fennekin and Chespin) to me says that tipping has nothing to do with shiny encounter rates, because since I do tip, It's been like 3 times in the entire time I owned the game because it just doesn't come up that often. Also my half a box of shinies and box of event giveaways that were traded from shinies I found say otherwise too. What I personally found was the highest shiny encounter rate was game time. Within every 100 hours I would keep running into at least 1 shiny. (so within the first 100 hours, I found a shiny Scatterbug, within the next 100 hours (so 200 hours on the game timer) I found a shiny Fletchling, and so on and so on. It's about as scientific as saying tipping increases the shiny encounter rate (namely that "It worked for me, so it must be true" school of thought! ;-) )

First off holy crap that was completely uncalled for, no need to blow up on me. Second the fact that tipping has a different experience with everyone so thats why its only rumored. I can personally tell you that one person doesnt need to bother with the supposed tipping. I own 240 legit shinies and have not tipped a single dime. On average i will find about 6 shinies a day, but sometimes i wont find any. i only play for a few hours because im usually busy with other stuff. Id say rhe best rate is if you actually know how to look for them. And if there was any advice for the community it is dont give up. Every person has a different shiny encounter experience. But i can confirm personally, Masuda Method, Fishing Chaining, Pokeradar, and Friend Safari are all increased. Also guys when breeding for a Masuda Shiny take into consideration the persons shiny ID because that also affects how easy you encounter a shiny. I hatched a shiny Chespin in 2 eggs believe it or not but to hatch my shiny Totodile it took 150. A persons Shiny Id also affects you normal shiny rate too.

 

[Hiatus]

I'm very intrigued by the give-tip-to-raise-shiny-encounter-rate rumor, but it's kind of disappointing to know that there's no real evidence of it. It would have been great if it were, because I believe that it's a pretty nice addition. Even if it increases your shiny rate temporarily, it would still be nice to know.

 

[Dark Phantom Samurai]

First off holy crap that was completely uncalled for, no need to blow up on me. Second the fact that tipping has a different experience with everyone so thats why its only rumored. I can personally tell you that one person doesnt need to bother with the supposed tipping. I own 240 legit shinies and have not tipped a single dime. On average i will find about 6 shinies a day, but sometimes i wont find any. i only play for a few hours because im usually busy with other stuff. Id say rhe best rate is if you actually know how to look for them. And if there was any advice for the community it is dont give up. Every person has a different shiny encounter experience. But i can confirm personally, Masuda Method, Fishing Chaining, Pokeradar, and Friend Safari are all increased. Also guys when breeding for a Masuda Shiny take into consideration the persons shiny ID because that also affects how easy you encounter a shiny. I hatched a shiny Chespin in 2 eggs believe it or not but to hatch my shiny Totodile it took 150. A persons Shiny Id also affects you normal shiny rate too.

Shiny ID? What is that? How do i figure out mine or come close to it?

 

[TriforceCourage]

Shiny ID? What is that? How do i figure out mine or come close to it?

The only way known right now is by using a computer program that reads the data off the wifi server. The way it works is you ask someone to trade a pokemon you hatched from an egg(make sure it has your OT and trainer ID). And they use the program to check the Shiny ID aka "Hidden ID" but as far as that goes thats the only known way to find it. Some people have said they find out how many pokemon it takes to find a shiny or how it takes to masuda a shiny.