Serious Why Trump will win 2020

[gimmepie]

Trump's "speech style" is modern day rabble-rousing, and are full of half-truths and outright lies. I've seen the typical rally. They remind me of the studio audience of the old Morton Downy Jr. show.

But it doesn't matter. It has not mattered to the majority of his supporters that almost everything he says is an outright lie before, it's not about to start mattering now. We're not discussing whether Trump is a good president, or even a good person. The question is, is he going to win?

Preferably, no. But the preferable outcome isn't the only one and I think we need to acknowledge that a Trump victory is a distinct possibility no matter how much of an asshole he is. My question to you is, if none of these things have mattered in relation to Trump before, why should we expect them to be a deciding factor now?

 

[Maedar]

ALT, why are you still bringing up Hillary? I certainly didn't, and I can tell you with near-certainty that the only reason she is ever mentioned is because Republicans keep bringing her up. It's 2016. She is retired. Let it go.

And who is trying to push for REMOVING him out of the ballots. Now, why do you think they would want to do that if they don't want him to win? Only if it's popular vote? So only the heavily condensed cities in the US found in places like California and Chicago can have the final say on who is elected? There is a reason why we have electoral college. This should be ringing alarms for everyone. Who really is acting like criminals? It ain't him that's for sure.

Orly Taitz tried many times to remove Obama from state ballots. I didn't see any outrage then. As for respect for the electoral college, remember this?

https://www.aol.com/article/news/20...umps-rant-from-2012s-election-night/21601285/

As for "who is really acting like criminals"? Trump and his administration, no doubt.

 

[EnglishALT]

ALT, why are you still bringing up Hillary? I certainly didn't, and I can tell you with near-certainty that the only reason she is ever mentioned is because Republicans keep bringing her up. It's 2016. She is retired. Let it go.

As I said in the post, it is not about Hillary but Trump's speaking style and how it resonates with voters. Here are a few quotes for example:

There was someone who described Brenda King [the female Donald Trump] as his Jewish aunt who would take care of him, even though he might not like his aunt. Someone else described her as the middle school principal who you don't like, but you know is doing good things for you.

I remember turning to Maria at one point in the rehearsals and saying, "I kind of want to have a beer with her!"

If Democrats hope to beat Trump in 2020 they are going to need someone with the more relaxed and off to cuff speaking style that Trump utilizes so well, Biden for example is a good person I believe that can do this, as well as Beto. People like Elizabeth Warren, and some extent Bernie Sanders, not so much.

 

[Maedar]

ALT, what I meant was, Trump's "speaking style" is full of insults, threats, and obscenities. He turns the crowd into something that threatens to cross the line into a becoming a lynch mob.

As if the chants of "LOCK HER UP" aren't enough, have you forgotten how he promised to pay legal fees of people who assaulted hecklers?

Here, Trump inciting violence:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WIs2L2nUL-0

 

[EnglishALT]

ALT, what I meant was, Trump's "speaking style" is full of insults, threats, and obscenities. He turns the crowd into something that threatens to cross the line into a becoming a lynch mob.

As if the chants of "LOCK HER UP" aren't enough, have you forgotten how he promised to pay legal fees of people who assaulted hecklers?

Here, Trump inciting violence:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WIs2L2nUL-0

And? As gimmepie stated, people do not seem to care. If anything the insults and threats endear him to his supporters who have seen soft politicians like George W Bush, John McCain, and Mitt Romney run for President and refuse to punch back at their opponents. So to reiterate gimmiepie's question: if none of these things have mattered in relation to Trump before, why should we expect them to be a deciding factor now?

 

[Maedar]

Wait, wait, hold on.

First, you said I "just described every politician".

Now, you're saying Trump's "style" is unique and is what makes him different?

 

[EnglishALT]

Wait, wait, hold on.

First, you said I "just described every politician".

Now, you're saying Trump's "style" is unique and is what makes him different?

You describe pretty much every politician as engaging in "full of half-truths and outright lies" so again I ask gimmiepie's question. Why does his combative style, matter if the base, and independents seem to like it?

 

[Maedar]

Because maybe the blatant lies (not half-truths), threats, name calling, bigotry, and calls for violence will matter now that everyone knows he's also an incompetent President.

And I posted my reasons for his incompetence on my first post of this thread.

 

[Sirfetch’d]

This is a final warning for both of you to get back on the topic of 'Why Trump will win' and stop derailing the thread. Any more instances of this will result in infractions.

 

[S-MAN]

https://youtu.be/VmAkq-AajFU
Trump is a successful business man. He is a symbol for prosperity and as this guy puts it: An American Success Story.
So with how they're trying to paint him as a loser with his tax returns, it only proves how he really knows a thing or two.
Quite an inspiration. I honestly hated him before because of all his wealth (jealousy) but that is no longer the case I can see how his comeback is significant and isn't a simple feat.
He wasn't just handed money and became rich- you also have to be smart with it. If it were so simple there wouldn't be as many financial failures who win the lotto.
He's going to win because there are many things us Americans can learn from him as well as hopefully undo all the marxist-like policies that are hurting us.
He is reviving the confidence in Americans in America despite all the insanity going on. This is reflective on his current popularity with everybody.
Of course there's going to be people hating him or some of his opinions but you can't please everybody.
He is absolutely smashing and even just got the 1.5B for the wall. He is getting some things done that previous presidents only talked the talk on before. He walks, struts, and is a boss.
You really have to look at WHY he is wealthy- why he is famous- WHY he is currently the president. That will ultimately reveal why he will win again.
People might have to let go of any jealousy/resentment residing inside to see the truth.
Plus he isn't afraid to make a moral argument against abortion. Believe it or not people really care about this.
Unemployment rates are being reported very low now and you can't just hit around the bush and give credit to something else.
The top comment there made me burst out laughing

 

[EnglishALT]

So it looks like from the early polls that Biden will run away with the Democratic nomination. While this is no sure thing, it reminds me in many ways of 2008 with Republicans when the party elected the "next man up" in John McCain who did little to inspire Republicans to vote.

The reason I am referencing this is that I think it works in Trump's favor in 2020. Having an aging candidate that does not inspire GOTV and connect with the base is a recipe for disaster.

Biden can connect with midwestern voters and middle class voters no doubt, but I don't think he can inspire the so called Obama coalition in 2020 that did not appear for Hillary in 2016.

That alone will help Trump win.

 

[Miss Wendighost]

Addressing the topic of the post, the one thing that would guarantee the reelection of Trump in 2020 is primarily his base. From what I would know, his base is incredibly loyal to him, regardless of scandals. Even if there was something that would've destroyed the chances of any other candidate of being elected, it is likely that Trump's base would still vote for him.

The one thing I can see defeating Trump in 2020 is the increase of political participation by young people in recent times. Do I have any certainties about 2020? No, I don't since things are still getting ironed out. All in all, the one thing that would allow Trump to serve four more years is his incredibly loyal base.

 

[Corrin]

None of the left seem to want to vote anymore, so we'll likely see more republicans even after him.
It's sad, like yes the democrats are shitty too but in this situation I'd take the less shitty option.

 

[Hermione Granger]

Since there will be independent people on the ballot for the presidency I will probably vote one of them as I don't support Trump or any of the democrats candidates. I do have views of both parties, which could lend to why I don't trust either party 100%.

Though I do see a possibility of trump winning again, but if we have a split congress or democrat controlled congress we would have another 4 year term of literally nothing getting done as I don't see a veto proof majority either.

 

[twocows]

With respect to the original topic, Trump won in 2016 because of the convergence of a variety of factors, including but not limited to:

• Sanders supporters who perceived the actions of the DNC in the primaries as conspiring to push him out either voting for Trump, voting third party, or opting not to vote
• Clinton becoming the eventual candidate despite her overwhelming unpopularity
• Clinton's focus on providing policy positions rather than an actual message, let alone a message that actually resonated with anyone
• The DNC's attempt to appeal to both extreme leftists and moderates ended with their failure to really win with either group (extremists felt they didn't go far enough, moderates felt they weren't being listened to)
• The existing Republican install base which, aside from a few outliers (never-Trumpers, but there were far more politicians who took this position than actual voters), largely got in line behind Trump
• The large number of people who normally weren't motivated by politics who Trump was able to mobilize
• Trump's success in making his opponents look clumsy while simultaneously energizing his support base
• The media's severe underestimation of Trump's popularity with people who actually turned up to vote and the subsequent lack of participation this caused among his detractors (many didn't bother to vote because they believed that he didn't have a chance)
• The impact of the internet and social media further energizing his base and helping to coordinate their messaging and efforts
• Trump's personal intuition about which states would be electorally relevant in the final days leading up to the election ended up being spot-on

I'm sure I could come up with plenty more things if I spent some time on it.

I don't know if Trump can win in 2020. I know that there are some factors in favor and there are some against, but I'm not going to make an ultimate prediction either way.

• +The DNC is still failing to appeal to either moderates or extremists
• +While a lot of candidates have come forth, none are particularly popular. The leading candidate is probably Joe Biden and let's be honest, Trump's followers would have a field day with him.
• +Trump's support base hasn't really diminished in any relevant capacity; he's still largely motivating the same people he did in 2016
• -On the other hand, people outside his core support base have had time to get over some of the issues they've had in 2016 that may have caused them to flip, go third party, or not vote, and may be more motivated to vote against him
• -The media isn't underestimating him anymore
• +The media and his strongest detractors can't stop screeching about him; from the perspective of an outsider, it comes across as rabid and cult-like
• +The Republican base, including many politicians who initially were against him, have largely united behind him
• -While Trump claims a lot of accomplishments, there aren't a whole lot of blatant things he can point to and clearly establish as being responsible for. The big wins he'll point to are unemployment and ISIS and it's hard to really establish that he's solely responsible for either. His base might believe it, but past that, I don't know. I think people will be more likely to buy the latter than the former, though.
• -He's going to have to field questions about why he hasn't followed through on some of his big promises. He'll shift blame, but it'll be hard to make that look good.

Again, I'm sure I could come up with others, but you get the picture. Trump had a lot go his way in 2016; it seems a bit more even here, and considering how the popular vote in 2016 was almost dead even with way more in his favor, I think it'll be a tougher sell in 2020. But then given the information we had in 2016, he pulled off an upset there; I can't rule it out in 2020.

 

[Bidoof FTW]

So it looks like from the early polls that Biden will run away with the Democratic nomination. While this is no sure thing, it reminds me in many ways of 2008 with Republicans when the party elected the "next man up" in John McCain who did little to inspire Republicans to vote.

The reason I am referencing this is that I think it works in Trump's favor in 2020. Having an aging candidate that does not inspire GOTV and connect with the base is a recipe for disaster.

Biden can connect with midwestern voters and middle class voters no doubt, but I don't think he can inspire the so called Obama coalition in 2020 that did not appear for Hillary in 2016.

That alone will help Trump win.

If Biden wins the nomination its a win for Trump secured.

I have zero doubt in my mind that the videos of Joe Biden being creepy around young females as well as stories from parents will begin to surface as soon as he has grabbed any sort of hold in the election. The Democrats choosing him as their primary candidate is suicide. I think Left news outlets want to support Biden because they think it will allow them to draw supporters of the Obama presidency, and it may. But I have a strong feeling that he's not going to inspire anyone, because personally as a democrat I want something different. Biden is not different.

 

[Emilia]

I don't know nor care much about U.S. politics (I'm more interested in International politics anyway) but I mean..
If Trump is gonna win, is it probs because theres so many Democrats running, Democrat votes will just be scattered around compared to the majority of Republicans who will probs vote Trump soo Trump will win?
idk politics so im probs making no sense lol

 

[twocows]

I don't know nor care much about U.S. politics (I'm more interested in International politics anyway) but I mean..
If Trump is gonna win, is it probs because theres so many Democrats running, Democrat votes will just be scattered around compared to the majority of Republicans who will probs vote Trump soo Trump will win?
idk politics so im probs making no sense lol

Only one candidate from each party runs in the general election. Party primary elections typically determine which candidate will run in the general election. All the Democrat potentials face each other, all the Republican potentials face each other, and whoever wins in each party goes to face the other party's candidate in the general election.

 

[EnglishALT]

Pelosi is calling a meeting for impeachment this morning with her caucus, considering the drum beat of the radical Democrats to impeach, and her shaky grip on her caucus, this may be a do or die for Pelosi's speakership.

However, as seen in the past with Republicans, the public does not reward a partisan impeachment they do not believe is deserving as Republicans lost significant seats in the 98 election. The last poll I saw also showed the public does not support impeachment here and are tired with the Mueller mess.

This very well could end up significantly boosting Trump's re election chances, while at the same time the chance of him actually being removed from office remains around 0.

 

[Maedar]

ALT you are assuming that impeaching Trump will have the same aftermath as Clinton's impeachment, that it would cause Trump to be viewed as a victim of circumstance and a scapegoat. Maybe that would indeed be the case, and I have no doubt that is why Pelosi and Schumer have delayed it for so long. Although, one could argue that Trump IS being impeached right now in all but name.

Still, there are many flaws in this idea, notably, the differences in the comparison and the fact you only use one other comparison. .

First, Clinton was, despite demonization by his detractors, a very popular President. He was impeached for lying about a consensual act of sex, a type of lie that I am sure every American male has told more than once. His detractors will try to counter that and say it was perjury, but let's be honest, this was a deliberate political move to get rid of him.

Trump is very different. Again, while some will deny this, he is NOT as popular as he claims. Even the Rasmussen Reports (known for a clear Republican bias) give him a current Approval Rating of 46%, nearly 20 points lower than Clinton's was a month before he was impeached. While Trump and his supporters insist that there is political bias due to "sore losers" upset over the 2016 election, there are actual many impeachable offenses Trump could be charged with, including refusing to comply with court ordered subpoenas, witness tampering, witness intimidation, bank fraud, wire fraud, tax fraud, conspiracy, accepting illegal campaign contributions, embezzling money intended for charity, nepotism, perjury, money laundering, and falsifying documents.

There's also the case that Trump, unlike Clinton, is starting to lose what support he has in the media (insulting Fox News for their coverage of Mayor Pete was unwise) and Justin Amash's very public condemnation is only getting him renewed support from his own state.

And to top it off, Trump's speech today in the Rose Garden was, IMOHO, rather... undignified.

There's also one thing most everyone forgets, and that is Clinton was not the first time a President was impeached. The first time was in a case where the President was unpopular, unethical, and a blatant bigot.

Yes, I'm calling Johnson a bigot, cause he WAS one. He was a bigot even by the standards of the time. He had plans for ethnic cleansing of non-whites, which fortunately, he never had a chance to enact.

Even though Congress impeached him on a technicality, and it was clear they had political motives (meaning, everyone despised him) nobody cared. The unsuccessful push to impeach him didn't help his career at all. Much the opposite, it resulted in him losing what little influence he had as President, and the Republicans who voted for acquittal also lost reelection.

So, what does all this mean? Personally, I do not think impeachment will gain Trump sympathizers or supporters among the voting public, although I do think he's likely to lose some positive media support.