I guess another thing to take into consideration is the number of day/night formes.
So...Lugarugan (2 forms), Wishiwashi (2 formes) and Oricorio (4 forms) are confirmed to have the same slot and name, but essentially it has two completely distinct pokemon. Sure, maybe in some cases the BST are the same, but for me, the personalities and characters are much different. Moreover, these various formes also have completely different typings and drastically different appearances which could warrant its own dex entry. I mean, in Wishiwashi's case most would have guess if just shown images, that it's single forme is a pre-evolution. So, we should can basically add 5 more to the total of new pokemon. (8 formes - 3 pokedex slots = +5 onto the official pokedex total).
Like Florges, I would not go as far to include Minior as really contributing to the dex, but at least it is fun to see different color variants. I do think that the following have a strong chance of having different formes:
Day and Night:
Rowlet final evo (+1 to the dex) This has been heavily speculated especially after Rockruff's split form evolution was revealed.
Litten final evo (+1 to the dex) This has been heavily speculated especially after Rockruff's split form evolution was revealed.
Popplio final evo (+1 to the dex) This has been heavily speculated especially after Rockruff's split form evolution was revealed.
Komala final evo (+1 to the dex) I have yet to hear ANY speculation, but I personally think the very fact that it is sleeping would be an indication that it might behave and battle differently if it is night or day time.
Gender:
Salandit and it's evolution (+2) - The dex entry explicitly notes that females Salandit have the ability to attract males with their pheromones. I'd expect this form to have a purple and red palette.
Why it could have a gendered form:
There could also be more pokemon like Oricorio with variation based on the islands. If so, that would effectually add 3 more pokemon to the roster.
From the pokemon we know so far, we can for sure add 5 to the total of 90 to get 95. Though, I am guessing we could also get 6 more based on other already known pokemon ~101. There could be other new formes for other pokemon yet to be revealed. Especially since the credible leak states that their will be a kitten pokemon with the ability to breed it into any secondary typing. Though, it could be fake information purposely peppered into an otherwise legit leak OR these forms might be like Minior, a simple change in color.
Just watch, GF will blow our minds and reveal that the pokemon thus far revealed are actually just one of two forms, night or day. Both versions have completely different pokemon available. Heh, that would actually be amazing, more pokemon two different adventures and avoiding bloating the already GIANT total of pokemon in the series. Don't worry, I am not crazy, I don't think this has any chance of being real.
Pokemon that have distinct appearances that could almost warrant them a dex entry of their own like Nidoking and Nidoqueen. They must have different faces, shape, and basically completely different models/sprites.
Gen 1 through Gen 3
Nothing
Gen 4
Rotom- (same core concept of possessed objects, but each object is distinct)
Gen 5
Frillish/Jellicent (same concept with different gender, with entirely different shapes)
Gen 6
Pyroar (same concept with different gender, with entirely different shapes)
Meowstic (same concept with different gender, with entirely different shapes)
Gen 7
Oricorio (entirely different conceptual designs based off dance styles)
Wishiwashi (entirely different concepts of singularity vs multiplicity)
Rugarugan (entirely different personalities and concepts, wolf vs werewolf)
(Starters???)
Comparing the generations, barring MAYBE rotom, which could have been an eevee-like pokemon, generation 7 formes are completely different conceptual designs and other formes tend to not have much conceptual difference. Though, all of these listed above have completely different models/sprites generation 7 forms seem to be distinct conceptually with a unifying theme between/among their distinct concepts.
These are on the fringe Fringe:
I took out pokemon:
- that only temporarily transform between different formes in battle. (Cherrim, Darmatian, Castform, Aegislash)
- with minor changes to shape. (Pichu and pikachu)
- with minor form differences in size. (Pumpkaboo and Gourgeist)
- with minor color/pattern differences. (Gastrodon, Basculine, Deeling, Sawsbuck, and Vivillion)
- with change of outfits (Furfrou and Cosplay Pika)
- with stupid differences (unown, sorry, but I will forever hate you unown)
- legendaries.
Basically, I don't think we should be too disappointed if the official number is 90, when it is clearly the case that the whole theme is biodiversity and variant niches. I'd say this is a smart way to approach the issue of lowering the total dex number while giving us the same degree of diversity of new capturable pokemon.
