Please, please, before you make an argument:
Think about what you're saying. Run it through some tests if you have to, but please please don't make yourself look bad because your argument holds NO water.
one of the Standard Azam:
@ Lum Berry
Timid/Modest
252 Speed, 252 special Atk, 6 HP
Psychic
Tpunch
Calm mind
filler (Usually an attack move)
Now, think about it, let's use your pokemon:
Wrath:
Alakazam uses Psychic. Where do you get the "OMG WRATH MIGHT GO FIRST" from? IT has leftovers, for crying out loud. Psychic is a OHKO on Wrath since it has no spD EVs (To survive, you need to max out your HP, and almost max out your spD, so there goes your entire argument, since if you max out your spD, you're dropping attack to the point where Azam can't even be dealt 70% from an earthquake)
Toed:
Tpunch does 49-58% to a Toed with a modest Azam, 45-53 with Timid. Now since your swagger would NOT work for at least 2 turns (turn 1 zam hits, you swagger, lum, turn 2 zam hits, you swagger), then you'd almost always be dead to a modest Azam by then, and if you meet a timid, you'd be left with laughable health anyways, so the 50% doesn't come into play at all, it's 1 strike and you're out, and since Dive in your case would be a 3HKO (2 if at least 1 hit is confusion hit), and since Azam has a 1 in 4 chance of awaking from Confusion (Lasting up to 4 self hits, which equals to 2 dive hits, which would KO), then you're still relying on the self hit to hit Zam at least twice (if it hits twice or more, then Zam will be KO'd first, but NOT if it has recover. If it does, then you're f**k'd)
Now, let's run the damage simulation:
Turn 1:
Zam Tpunch!
modest: 42-49%
Timid: 46-54%
Toed uses ___! (would not really have an effect, would it? If you use toxic OR Swagger, lum kicks in. If you dive, then you dive)
Turn 2:
If you did not dive:
Zam hits again!
Poli now has:
Modest - 2-16% left
Timid: -8 to 8% left (aka, 50% chance of KO, but the avg damage is a KO at 100.32%dmg)
Toed: Swagger? Dive? Toxic? what are you going to do? Ice beam? And no, saying "ICE BEAM WILL FREEZE" Is not a valid argument.
Assume you dove: You come up, deal damage, Zam next turn hits you for same dmg as above, and you're f**k'd again, since if you dive, you won't KO Azam, that's a guarentee. If you don't, you pretty much just KO'd yourself.
Turn 3: Assuming you're still alive
Thus we also assume you used Swagger last turn, or toxic, since if you had gone straight for the kill Zam would have won. Let's not assume toxic cuz Zam would kill you now. so swagger:
Swaggered Zam.
50% Chance of KOing you.
50% chance of NOT Koing you and hits self instead.
You: Dive?
Turn 4: Zam: 50% chance of Calm minding, 50% of hit self.
You: Dive for damage, you need at least 1 more dive to KO though, assuming zam doesn't recover.
Turn 5: Zam: 50% chance of using Tpunch for the KO, 50% chance of hit self.
You: Dive down again?
Turn 6: Zam: see above
You: Dive up for the KO.
Now, you're running on 3 assumptions:
1) Azam has a 2-4 turn confusion. That's a 75% chance occurance.
2) Azam hits himself at least twice: That's, I believe, an 18.75% chance of working (that's factoring in random confusion lengths too)
3) That's not including that Either of Azam's hits don't CH, PAR (and FP) you in any way. Factoring that: your 18.75% just shot down to 13.85%ish
In conclusion: You have a 13.85% chance, if my math is correct, of beating an alakazam with your politoed. Therefore, you lose the argument, because the chance of that happening is almost as rare as you freezing with ice beam, so you might as well just keep ice beaming and hope that Azam gets frozen.
Bottom line: You lose, Azam wins =)
