Changes that I've noticed (catch+stats mechanics)

[Afterglow Ampharos]

How it used to be: If you and your friend found the same Pokemon in the same spot, and both caught it, they may have had different CP numbers, but they would always have the same stat rating: e.g. poor stats, strong stats, battle-with-the-best stats, as rated by the Instinct/Mystic/Valor Leader.

How it is now: I've personally proved this wrong on multiple occasions, my family member and I have Pokémon we caught in the same spawn spot that are not the same stats rating. (They were not spawned by a Lure nor Incense.)


How it used to be: In the past, sources on this forum told me that accuracy is boosted NOT by aiming your Pokeball inside of the ever-shrinking circle ring, but by how small the ring is when you hit, even if it's outside. I was told that getting it inside gives an XP boost but not an accuracy boost.

How it is now: It's difficult to prove this for absolute certain, but playing the game for extended periods and observation has told me that whenever I hit outside the ring when the ring is teeny tiny, the Pokemon escapes the ball. But when I hit inside the ring with a Great, then I'm ~in general~ more likely to catch it than if I'd used a SMALLER ring and NOT hit inside it.


Apologies if this is the wrong section of the forum, I'm willing to copypaste these observations elsewhere. I just wanted to get these out there, clear up some weird changes that have gone on in the game without anyone telling us.

 

[buttlet32]

In many ways, your observations are quite accurate, though the second observation is missing one detail that plays another major role in your chances of catching a
Pok?mon. CP is a big factor to keep into consideration. Now I'm not stating that your observation is wrong, but instead, I'm adding onto it.

A Pidgey could have 10 CP and you could throw a Pokeball towards it trying for an excellent throw, to get that 100xp bonus. If you hit the 10CP Pidgey outside of the circle you'll catch it at least 99.99% of the time. The .01% takes into account that you are being punished with a soft-ban for cheating. I'm not saying you cheat, just that it can play a factor. Now since the release of Ditto into PoGo, there's now the chance of it not actually being a Pidgey. So with that in mind say instead of 10CP it's a 300CP "Pidgey".

As you may already know from when you caught your first Ditto, it started with a common Pok?mon like Pidgey or Rattata, though you were confused as to why it was so hard to catch that 200CP Rattata or 300CP Pidgey, then you finally caught it to find it was a Ditto all along.

Back to the 300CP Pidgey. You may use a Razz Berry and throw an excellent curve ball with your trusty Ultra Ball. Normally it should be that easy, but because Ditto is now a factor in the difficulty, there is still a chance that it can get out and you may use a few more balls to catch the darn thing.

So like you said where the ball hitting inside or outside the circle can help, it also depends on other things.

I hope I did a good job explaining all of that. And I especially hope I explained it in a way that didn't make you feel as if you were being lectured.

 

[VisualJae]

ALL level 30+ players that engage a specific Pokemon will meet one with the same CP, same IVs, same moveset, size, etc. I'm level 37 and encounter a ~CP1900 88.8% IV female Lapras with Frost Breath and Blizzard. A nearby level 31 player, 33 player, and 39 player will ALL encounter the same Lapras.

Levels 29 and under will receive different stats depending on player level. A level 24 player and 27 player may not encounter the same Lapras as the above.

Ball type, curve bonuses, throw bonuses (ring size), Pok?mon species, Pok?mon level, Razz Berries, medals, ALL affect your catch rate.

Catch probability = 1 - (1 - (base catch rate / 2 * CP multi))^additional multipliers

Base catch rate varies depending on the Pok?mon species (Bulbasaur, Pikachu, Dratini, Jumpluff, Pupitar, etc.). CP multi depends on the Pok?mon level (up to 30 in the wild; i.e. the higher the level, the lower the catch probability).

Additional multipliers are mentioned earlier, which include type of ball used, Razz Berry use, curve throw bonus, Nice/Great/Excellent throw bonus (which depends on the ring size), and the medal type you have, e.g. bronze/silver/gold medal for the Pok?mon type (Grass, water, fire, etc.).

It's just proven math based on the known mechanics for the game.

 

[Afterglow Ampharos]

Ok, but would a level 25 player and 28 player encounter the same Pokemon in the same location that has different, ah, quality? The stats that are hidden away and only vaguely explained by your team leader under Appraise?

I ask because IN THE PAST, whenever my family member and I have caught the same Pokemon in the same location, it has always been the same under Appraise. And we've always been apart by like 3 levels or more. And this was also a well-documented mechanic, though the CP would be radically different, the Appraised stats would always be alike.

Aaand now my personal experience is debunking that.


Also, VisualJae, you said a whole lot of words about catch rate but successfully totally dodged the matter I was talking about regarding the rings. I was talking not just about the accuracy bonuses, but when the rings are small and the supposed bonus you get from that even when your ball does not land inside them (again, this is something I was told on this forum. I believe you were in the thread, in fact?). I feel like my personal experience is debunking that.

 

[VisualJae]

Appraisals don't tell you exact values. 13-14 in a single IV for a Pokémon in the high 60%s to mid 70%s will result in the same appraisal. 13/11/6 and 13/9/9 will give you exactly the same appraisals. That's why calculators exist. And no, the game has changed a while ago. Only level 30+ players will encounter a Pokémon of complete equal properties. Players under 30 are still subject to randomness.

As for catch mechanics, throw bonuses are completely dependent on ring sizes to begin with. You'll NEVER get an excellent bonus when the ring size is at its maximum. And you won't get any bonuses from not landing an accurate throw within the ring anyway. Small ring? Curve a throw that lands outside of it? Sorry, you only get the curve multiplier. Small ring and curve a throw that lands in the ring? Then get both the curve and excellent throw multipliers. It's that simple. Even the official game info tells you you should land a throw when the ring is at the smallest.

I would avoid relying on personal experiences when the game's code and thousands of test samples have since proven the mechanics already. The formula I included above is how catches work for the game. If you want to debunk that, you're going to have to back up the claims with data. Look through theorycrafting sites like Silph Road and Gamepress for some methodologies.

 

[Neltharion83]

Responding to the initial post, your first observation is correct. Above trainer level 30, everything is the same, below trainer level 30, everything is now different (moveset, IVs, level, cp). This is a recent change, below level 30 only level and CP used to vary.

This has a big effect on live maps, i use https://www.pokemapmuc.de/ , it is illegal but entirely safe for users. It used to give IVs and movesets for most pokemon and used to show many top pokemon. The map relies on bots. Recently it used to work for players below level 30. Now it can only show IVs and movesets for a few rare pokemon, like drattini and chansey and lapras, and these will only be correct for lvl30+ players. The reason is that the map programmers do not have enough lvl30+ bots, almost all bots get banned before reaching lvl30+. Now the main use of the map is to hunt for rare candy and the ultra-rare unown.

The second observation is, in my opinion, wrong. I think it never was true. You have a base catch rate, this base catch rate is what you get when you hit outside of the circle with a normal ball. Circle size does not matter if you do not hit it. This base catch rate also depends on pokemon species and pokemon level/CP.

Then you have a bunch of bonuses that can be stacked up and added up. Curveball gives a small bonus, hitting inside a big circle gives a small bonus, raspberry gives a medium bonus, superball gives a medium bonus, hitting inside a medium-sized bonus gives a medium bonus. Hyperball gives a big bonus, hitting inside a very small circle gives a big bonus.

It has always been like that. They changed the XP bonuses, added more XP bonuses, corrected the display of the circle colors, but the fundamentals affecting catch rate were always the same.

So for the most difficult to catch pokemon, the best strategy was always the same: Raspberry + hyperball, try curveball for another small bonus, try to hit inside a circle for another bonus. The optimum is a small bonus for curveball, a medium bonus for raspberry, a big bonus for hyperball, and (close to impossible to do) another big bonus for hitting inside a very small circle.

 

[Afterglow Ampharos]

So just to be clear. You're saying that my second How it used to be is incorrect, Neltharion? Because to be honest I was skeptical about that point as well, even back when I was told that it was true, here on the forum in a different thread.

 

[Neltharion83]

So just to be clear. You're saying that my second How it used to be is incorrect, Neltharion? Because to be honest I was skeptical about that point as well, even back when I was told that it was true, here on the forum in a different thread.

Exactly. It was just a rumour, never was true, and that never changed. I think that also got called out by me and others as the rumour was being spread.

Confirmation bias is a powerful thing, remember the hits, forget the misses, let the hits confirm your false theory. With plenty of randomness, it can convince people that the most ridiculous ideas are true.

This is how you can tell a professional poker player, who goes into a casino and (on average) actually makes money, from an amateur/recreational poker player, or even just a gambling addict who believes he can beat slot machines, video poker, roulette or something like that: Some weak/losing players do it as well, but ALL professionals keep DETAILED records of all wins and losses, because it is the only way to stay rational without confirmation bias creeping in when dealing with plenty of randomness.

This also works to get rid of bad ideas regarding pokemon go.

"I paid attention to it and feel like..." NO.

"I think i observed that..." NOOOOOOOO.

"Based on my experience over the last few days..." NO, really. NOOOO.

"Obviously it is true that..." NOOOOO.

Rigurous testing with sound methodology and complete record-keeping is the only thing that works. In this case, you get the bonus when you hit inside the circle and it tells you that you got the bonus by displaying it on your screen, by complimenting you on 3 different levels of a really good throw.