Guide to Prediction ~

[Azonic]

☆ Guide to Prediction

Written by Cherii | Big thanks to Dark_Azelf and Smarties-chan.
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☆ INTRODUCTION

First of all, what is prediction? Well, prediction is one of the most important aspects of competitive battling. As its name goes, prediction is the ability to predict what your opponent is going to do.

While the bulk of competitive battling relies on EV training, IV breeding, Natures, etc., please do not forget that Pokémon battling is very well a mind game. Prediction is what separates the good from the mediocre.

To master prediction, you need to be able to put yourself into your opponents shoes and think: "What will I do next?" That's predicting your opponent's next move. Now after you have a good idea of what your opponent is going to do next, then you need to figure out a way to counteract his action. This can put them in a very difficult situation.

Prediction: The ability to predict the opponent's next move; this separates the good from the mediocre.

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☆ BASIC PREDICTION

Imagine this:

You have a Blissey out on the field, while it is threatened and pinned against a Machamp.

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Now use your common sense; what do you think your opponent is going to do next? Remember, you have to put yourself in your opponent's shoes. The most common choice that the opponent would do is command his / her Machamp to use Dynamicpunch (Why? Because it will score a surefire OHKO). Now thats it...

You predicted a Dynamicpunch that would come from Machamp! So now what? You need to figure out a way to counteract the Dynamicpunch before it hits. A good way to counteract an incoming Dynamicpunch is to pin the opponent with a resist or one of Machamp's counters. Spiritomb should do it.

You now call back Blissey and swap it out for Spiritomb. Now, the Dynamicpunch is unleashed from Machamp, expecting to land a OHKO on Blissey but... it hits Spiritomb instead.

That there is an example of basic prediction. It's pretty easy, but then we can get more complicated onto predicting predictions and other stuff.
Spiritomb takes no damage from it; you've outsmarted your opponent.

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☆ PREDICTING PREDICTIONS

Confusing name, no? It will make sense once you get the hang of it. Basically, this has to tie to one point: Your opponent knows how to predict too.

How do you counter him? Well, you have to predict what he is going to predict, and counter his action respectively. Confusing? Well, let me give you an example...

Let's take a situation somewhat similar to the previous, shall we?

You have a Machamp out against your opponent's Blissey. You know that your opponent has a Spiritomb in his / her party.
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So once again, put yourself in your opponent's shoes. Obviously a Dynamicpunch would be predicted from a Machamp to a Blissey. Therefore you can assume that Spiritomb would switch in to avoid the Dynamicpunch; so what you need to do is counteract or take advantage of the predicted Spiritomb switch-in.

So basically, you're predicting that the opponent will predict a Dynamicpunch (and switch to Spiritomb).

Now, this can often lead to a problem called overprediction. It is basically when you predict too much, or you are overthinking the situation and it falls short of perfect or goes out of control. You might predict something complex when the opponent might just aim for a basic expected move. This factor is hard to control and avoid; the best you can do is to think through the situation each time you make a prediction. Put yourself in your opponents shoes, and think through the situation carefully. "Is the risk of prediction really worth it?"


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☆ PLAYING IT SAFE

Play your predictions safely. This is a key factor to avoid overprediction. Is the attempted prediction actually worth it? Sometimes the risk is too high. Maybe an example would be suitable for this situation.

Your opponent has a Swampert with 4% HP left and you have a Scizor on the field.
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You don't want to take a Torrent boosted Hydro Pump so Swords Dancing is out of the question, but you don't want to switch, either. That leaves you with two choices: use the less effective Brick Break or your stronger X-Scissor. Both will obviously knock out Swampert, but what if your opponent switches instead, wanting to leave the Swampert as death fodder for later? You know your opponent has a Heatran, which won't mind taking an X-Scissor. In this situation, using the less effective Brick Break is a considerably safer move to use than X-Scissor as you'll be able to punish the in-coming Heatran if your opponent decides to switch.
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When you are involved with battling, please remember to use common sense. Be aware of some red herring! If something seems too good to be true, it probably is. Lets take the following event for an example:

You have a Salamence in play. While it uses Dragon Dance, your opponent sends in a Starmie. You realize that your opponent has a Mamoswine with Ice Shard in his / her party, but he / she decides to switch in Starmie instead.​

Why on earth would your opponent decide to do that? It looks like you've cornered your opponent at this point, with Starmie having no chance to escape. Is it really? Use your common sense - there is NO reason for your opponent to perform such an action unless your opponent has a certain gain from it. In this case, Starmie obviously holds a Choice Scarf, which is the only reason Starmie would be sent in on a DD Salamence.

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☆ TIMING AND RECORDING

You can sometimes predict the future of the situation at hand when you record information down. A few examples are when it comes to PP Stalling and moves like Sucker Punch. This will give you the information of how long you need to stall to turn the tide around. You can also write down some information and decode some vital clues such as the stats of a Pokémon by recording "this outsped that" and such.

Also, you should be aware of the different strategies that the opponent has. Scouting your opponent is a key to success when you know what your opponent has to bring to the field. What moves can the opponent use? Well, scout out your opponent, primarily with moves like Substitute, Rest, and Protect. Doing so will fulfill you with knowledge about the possibilities that the opponent may use against you.

Along with scouting, try to decode and analyze your opponent's battle style. You should be aware of their strategies and make your predictions accordingly. Is your opponent the high risk, high reward kind of battler? Or is he / she a slow and steady battler? Make your predictions accordingly and always try to put yourself one step ahead of your opponent. Put yourself in their shoes.

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☆ CONCLUSION

The absolute best you can do is to put yourself in your opponent's shoes, and think through the situation using both sides and views. You can figure out what the next move is, and use it to your advantage.

Use the element of surprise to your advantage too. It is very hard to predict a Pokémon's next move if a moveset is of an unusual or unpredictable nature. Rare and versatile movesets, etc. They are all good ways to make yourself immune to the opponent's prediction.

All in all, prediction is a vital factor to competitive battling. Master it and it will put you at the top of your game. Remember, think through the situation before acting and you'll be fine. Good luck ~
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[SkyPioneer]

A neat and concise guide, though basic.
Alot of the metagame is quite predictable anyway. I mean, your oponent sends out a Heatran after you just Knocked out one of his pokemon. Any smart player would know instantly that it is probably scarfed and is aimed at Revenging your current pokemon on the field.
If you see a Scizor who just lost 10% of it's health after attacking, you can bet that it has Swords Dance, and you must be wary not to give it time to set up.

Simple points, really.
But prediction isn't to difficult a concept.
But I've been in battles in which someone predicted me predicting their predictions.
That person ended up overpredicting.
So just be careful.

 

[Smarties-chan]

A neat little guide, but there are some things that can be used to ease prediction that should really be mentioned, namely:

1) Scouting - knowing as much as possible about your opponent's Pokémon really helps with making accurate predictions. (should at least mention Protect and Substitute and possibly Taunt and Rest as well.)

2) Analyzing your opponent's play style. Knowing how your opponent thinks is the key to making good predictions - if your opponent has a high risk - high reward kind of play style, you should predict accordingly, same goes for if your opponent is the type to play slow and steady.

3) "Safe predictions:" I think an example would explain this best. Your opponent has a Swampert with 4% HP left and you have a Scizor on the field. You don't want to take a Torrent boosted Hydro Pump so Swords Dancing is out of the question, but you don't want to switch, either. That leaves you with two choices: use the less effective Brick Break or your stronger X-Scissor. Both will obviously knock out Swampert, but what if your opponent switches instead, wanting to leave the Swampert as death fodder for later? You know your opponent has a Heatran, which won't mind taking an X-Scissor. In this situation, using the less effective Brick Break is a considerably safer move to use than X-Scissor as you'll be able to punish the in-coming Heatran if your opponent decides to switch.

4) Playing safe - to avoid the common mistake of "overpredicting," you should always ask yourself: "is the risk really worth the reward?" Making predictions for the sake of predicting is never a good thing. As long as the game is clearly in your favor or the opponent can't turn the game on its head in one turn if you make a mistake, there is absolutely no reason to make unnecessary predictions. The only time you should be taking any bigger risks is when your opponent is controlling the game or when the match is in a total stalemate.

5) If it seems too good to be true, it probably is - sometimes your opponent will try to lull you into a false sense of security by doing something that seems downright suicidal, but is really a trap. For example, your opponent brings in a Starmie on your +1 DD Mence, which can easily outspeed and OHKO Starmie. You know your opponent has a Mamoswine that can take out your Mence with Ice Shard. This should ring some bells for you - why in the world would your opponent do something like that? The obvious answer is that the switch-in is a gimmick or has a less commonly used set. (in this case, the Starmie is obviously Scarfed)

I've seen far too many players let their Salamences get destroyed by my Starmie this way.

But prediction isn't to difficult a concept.

The concept itself isn't hard to grasp, but actually learning how to predict well is a completely different matter as there as just so many factors that affect it: the players' skill levels, their teams, play styles and movesets. A solid team can only get you so far - being able to predict your opponent's moves is what really makes a player good. Before you've been absolutely murdered by a truly good player, it's hard to realize exactly how powerful of a tool prediction can be.

 

[Aquilae]

Prediction = dumb luck, just a glorified game of RPS

The only things that are worth consideration are the moves you are actually going to be using, analysing risk / reward can't be relied on because the opponent usually won't use the most obvious choice. I also doubt how those examples could show that you predicted in any way, since "Spiritomb completely stops Machamp so I'll switch to it whenever Machamp comes along".

 

[blee1149]

The guide seems nice. When it comes to prediction you just have to figure out your own style and the opponent's style. Knowing your opponent's swapping style is important. He might stop the obvious blissey spiritomb combo, figuring out his/her pattern will be one of your major assets.

 

[Azonic]

Major thanks, Smarties-chan. ^^ I've updated the post accordingly. Anti should be following through with a new Long-Term Prediction category shortly, so expect that.

 

[Sebastien Loeb]

The guide is all right, the problem is that if don't know the team adversary it becomes very complicated to predict without counting the existence of the overpredicts.

 

[Azonic]

The guide is all right, the problem is that if don't know the team adversary it becomes very complicated to predict without counting the existence of the overpredicts.

If you read the guide, you would know that scouting has been mentioned.

 

[Archer]

If you read the guide, you would know that scouting has been mentioned.

I think he means that it's easy to over-predict when you haven't seen the opponent's team. Scouting isn't always going to help here, but you can safely assume that your opponent has some sort of switchin to the pokemon you are threatening them with.

The main difficulty with Over-Prediction is caused by overestimating the opponent's ability to counter-predict. If I put myself in Noob101's shoes, I may ponder situations that person wouldn't. As this is too complex to account for, the mention of "Risk vs Benefits" will do.