How rare is it to pick up a 10km egg?

[Neltharion83]

There is no way that the distribution of eggs is "Statistically Random". If it were truly random, we would see a more equal distribution of eggs when you go to a Poke Stop.

For example:

Consider a 6-sided dice. Each roll of the dice is considered a random event. But over several rolls, the occurence of numbers starts to equal out.

Its not random in the sense that you have a 33.333% chance to get any of the egg types.

It is random in the sense that you get (rough guesstimates not based on actual data) you get 10% 10km eggs, 55% 5km eggs, and 35% 2km eggs.

And it does not matter if you use 8 purchased incubators and the infinite one, or if you dance around the pokestops in circles before you spin them, or if you send away a weedle each time you hit a pokestop, or if you just use the eternal incubator and use it to hatch out whatever you feel like. This kind of randomness just spawns superstitious beliefs based on confirmation bias, you can see the same with gambling addicts in Las Vegas with their lucky charms and lucky numbers and lucky hats and blowing on the dice and stuff. Humans have a way out, reason, but in animal testing scientists managed to induce superstitious behaviors in different animals, even pigeons and chickens.

 

[Phoenixstarz]

Have you read through every line of code to confirm that each egg is 100% random with nothing at all that could influence it?
The one thing I've learnt so far is talk to as many people as possible and see what results they get for things, come up with an idea to test then get some results. Some theories turn out to be wrong (but may help you come up with the correct theory) but assuming that there isn't anything you can learn won't help you at all.
Like I said I don't have enough data yet to prove or disprove my theory that getting more than 1 egg from a pokestop gives better chance of getting a 10k egg, for now all I can do is keep hatching eggs then at some point i will have enough data to say I'm right or I'm wrong

 

[VisualJae]

Have you read through every line of code to confirm that each egg is 100% random with nothing at all that could influence it?
The one thing I've learnt so far is talk to as many people as possible and see what results they get for things, come up with an idea to test then get some results. Some theories turn out to be wrong (but may help you come up with the correct theory) but assuming that there isn't anything you can learn won't help you at all.
Like I said I don't have enough data yet to prove or disprove my theory that getting more than 1 egg from a pokestop gives better chance of getting a 10k egg, for now all I can do is keep hatching eggs then at some point i will have enough data to say I'm right or I'm wrong

Yes, there is code for eggs, more specifically PokéStops in general. When you spin a Stop, it runs down a list of items and pumps them out one by one depending on the rolls. Balls, potions, berries... eggs.

You can probably find something on Silph Road or whatever else theorycrafting/datamining site. It's where all the talk of random and total luck comes in.

 

[Maserati777]

All I can say is I got my 2nd 10km egg after hatching about 6 eggs in my party and not going to another pokestop in that time. So about a week.


Usually when I hatch 1 egg at a time and then get a new egg immediately after it's always a 5, sometimes a 2. I guess if I get a 10km egg while having 8 eggs in my party I could believe it was random. At this point and time I think 10km eggs are more likely when getting multiple eggs in a row as opposed to one at a time.


But a couple things need to change, Eevee needs to be removed from 10km eggs, in no way shape or form should Eevee be in 10km eggs over Kangaskhan or whatever.


Also I don't believe the pokestop chaining thing, usually if I have an open spot or more, I get an egg from the next pokestop until I hit 9 eggs again. Which is why it's impossible to have less then 7 eggs at a time.

 

[VisualJae]

But a couple things need to change, Eevee needs to be removed from 10km eggs, in no way shape or form should Eevee be in 10km eggs over Kangaskhan or whatever.

Places exist where Eevees are extremely rare. I have friends who live in different regions where they've only encountered one Eevee while playing the past month.

I've found four Lapras after playing since day 1 and I'm level 30. One of my friends who lives in New England complains that he finds too many Lapras, already having obtained four of them before he hit level 12. I bet he wishes they wouldn't hatch from 10km eggs sometimes.

What about Pinsirs and Scythers? I've seen some people here being ecstatic they finally found a Pinsir. Meanwhile I'm sitting on nearly 200 Pinsir candies because they're like vermin where I live.

 

[BlueFalcon]

Level 25 currently...

In my first 100 hatched eggs I only received 3 10k eggs. Since that time I have hatched 50ish more and 4 or 5 of which were 10k eggs (sadly mostly useless duplicates). Even though I've have hatched 8 or so 10k eggs only a couple (two snorlaxes) are actually used during battles. Three percent for the first hundred eggs sucks, but after reading many of the replies in this thread that seems to be what people are seeing.

 

[BlueFalcon]

Places exist where Eevees are extremely rare. I have friends who live in different regions where they've only encountered one Eevee while playing the past month.

I've found four Lapras after playing since day 1 and I'm level 30. One of my friends who lives in New England complains that he finds too many Lapras, already having obtained four of them before he hit level 12. I bet he wishes they wouldn't hatch from 10km eggs sometimes.

What about Pinsirs and Scythers? I've seen some people here being ecstatic they finally found a Pinsir. Meanwhile I'm sitting on nearly 200 Pinsir candies because they're like vermin where I live.

It's hard to imagine a place where Eevees are rare given the fact Eevee evolutions have dominated gyms all over the place it seems, but I have no doubt there are a few places out there where they're rare and some other poke is common for them. Four Lapras at level 12? I'm at 25 and don't have a single one yet.

I've noticed that in the last level or two Pinsirs have suddenly started turning up with frequency as well (a few Scythers in the last level or two too).

 

[Maserati777]

That's not a good excuse for them being in 10km eggs, with 5km eggs they'd hatch faster because they'd have more eggs to hatch of them...

 

[wetakekills]

it is extremely rare. my peers dont even have it haha

 

[Phoenixstarz]

I have over 100 eevee candy but i feel that i dont have enough, the rumour is the later gens evolutions of eevees willl be random (by the end you will have a 1 in 8 chance of getting the one you want) just imagine how frustrating that will be to try to get a perfect IV best moveset and correct evolution.
What frustrates me is that i find it more likely to get pokemon from eggs that i already have. I found a Jynx locally and then got 3 Jynx's out of 4 10k eggs.
Then i found a wild Magmar then got 2 magmars in succession from 10k eggs
Again same thing with Pinsirs
After ages of getting the same pokemon from 10k's i finally got an electabuzz then suddenly i get another 2 very quickly
But there are still loads of pokemon from 10k's that i havent got yet

 

[Illusionss]

I have over 100 eevee candy but i feel that i dont have enough, the rumour is the later gens evolutions of eevees willl be random (by the end you will have a 1 in 8 chance of getting the one you want) just imagine how frustrating that will be to try to get a perfect IV best moveset and correct evolution.
What frustrates me is that i find it more likely to get pokemon from eggs that i already have. I found a Jynx locally and then got 3 Jynx's out of 4 10k eggs.
Then i found a wild Magmar then got 2 magmars in succession from 10k eggs
Again same thing with Pinsirs
After ages of getting the same pokemon from 10k's i finally got an electabuzz then suddenly i get another 2 very quickly
But there are still loads of pokemon from 10k's that i havent got yet

They haven't even added gen 2 eeveelutions yet so it's going to be a very long time until there's all 8, plus you could just trade for the ones you want with moveset/ivs. As for the 10k eggs certain pokemon seem a lot more common (eevee, magmar, electabuzz, jynx, pinsir) than the others (chansey, snorlax, lapras)

 

[Phoenixstarz]

Is true that I probably will have enough by that time but I'm happy to have more than I need than be stuggleing to get enough eevee candy.
I had 6 empty egg spaces earlier, picked up 2 5ks then got 2 eggs from the next stop and one of those was a 10k. Again still not enough proof that my theory is right as correlation does not imply causation however until I read anything definatively saying it doesn't I'm inclined to believe that it might increase my chances of getting a 10k (even if it's only a small increase of random chance I will take it)

Edit:Picked up 2 more eggs to fill my egg slots and got another 10k

 

[CoalCraft]

Eevees are moderately rare here - level 20 and have only managed to evolve one once. An eevee is one of the things I'm most hopeful for in a 10K, but no luck yet.

 

[High on Drugs]

Just cleared 2 slots hoping for a 10km egg and then got a 2 and 5km egg ugh

 

[BlueFalcon]

Just cleared 2 slots hoping for a 10km egg and then got a 2 and 5km egg ugh

Have faith as 10k egg drops are MUCH better since that update a week or two ago now. I hatched two yesterday (Scyther + Pinser :() and then picked up two more eggs yesterday. I don't think a day has gone by this week where I haven't had a 10k egg (I always incubate and usually hatch at least 9 a day) so they're dropping roughly 15% of the time for me. I really hope the next round gives me something new :)

 

[jjc927]

I've found quite a few Eevees in my town and the town where I work in. I have 2 of the 3 Eeveelutions and I can do the 3rd one with 5 more Eevees.

As for 10K eggs, I've gotten 3 so far. One I hatched was an Eevee.

 

[Maserati777]

I just recently got a 3rd 10km egg and I had 8 eggs in my party at the time.

 

[KJ]

I just got my 2nd 10k egg since i started playing at the begining of the month. As far as eevee's go. being home on vacation they seem to be pretty common around here. I caught 4 alone inside my grandma's house yesterday

 

[pk2016]

I've only got an egg for up to 5 km.

 

[tjumper78]

i often get 3 or 4 10 km eggs in a single day but it means crap when im getting eevees 4 out of 5 times.