[Sword & Shield] Pokemon that could be in the Galar Dex, using math!

[745x571]

I am not a leaker, and this is just a simple theory. A question really. Can we figure out which pokemon have been included most in regions they are non-native in? If a pokemon has been included in a region they did not originate from over and over again (Zubat, Magicarp, and Corsola surprisingly), then it is quite possible they would return again. Here's some rules I followed in my research.

• All Kanto pokemon and their evolutionary families get a free pass for being in Let's Go
• All legendaries are excluded, since they don't play a major role in other region's story, and even more rarely in the regional dex
• Of course all of the pokemon that have been shown in trailers/other media get a pass
• Kanto, Jhoto, and the BW pokedexes are not included because they either contain no outside pokemon (Kanto, BW) or they contain all of their pokedex and another full pokedex (Jhoto).
• Pokemon don't get a point for being in a region they are from (Zigzagoon doesn't count for Hoenn, but it does for Kalos)
• The Gen 7 that haven't been confirmed are all ignored because they haven't had another region to be in

Not a 100% accurate list, but it's quantitative evidence of the pokemon they choose over another. They also said they chose pokemon that fit the region, so some pokemon who have returned in the regional dex year after year might not show. A pokemon that has been shunned most it's life might be placed because it fits the region. Some pokemon like starters/fossils who might have normally been left out of the regional dex even though they have been given in the post game might break tradition here, its new territory. No guarantees, but it's a start. All I hope is that Zoroark makes it in!

Also a small note. I keep hearing the number 450 as being the number of pokemon in the Galar regional dex. I can't confirm this, but it feels reasonable. Using the data, if you only pick the pokemon that have been included in 75% of regional dexes they don't originate from, that's 230 with a low-ball guess that they will only bring 50 new pokemon, you get a dex of 280. BW2 was 300 so this is pretty low. If you pick the pokemon that have been included in 33% of regional dexes they don't originate from, that's 364 with a high-ball guess of 100 new pokemon, you get a dex of 464.

The google sheet link -> https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1o1pUEtruWkesPXuAGP8JITQJ2QMM5LS_pQwtyTc171E/edit?usp=sharing

The pokemon who are not confirmed, but very likely due to their history, 75%> inclusion in other regions
Murkrow family
Corsola
Skarmory
Absol
Bonsly family
Gabite family
Nosepass family
Sandile family
Emolga
Alomomola
Fletchling family
Klefki
Phanthump family

The pokemon who have a good shot, 75%-50% inclusion in other regions
Azurill family
Heracross
Delibird
Surskit family
Makuhita family
Sableye
Carvanha family
Torkoal
Spinda
Swablu family
Barboach family
Corphish family
Castform
Shuppet family
Relicanth
Luvdisc
Bagon family
Beldum family
Lillipup family
Cottonee family
Petilil family
Basculin
Scraggy family
Zorua family (Yas!)
Elgyem family
Mienfoo family
Druddigon
Vullaby family

The pokemon that have a chance, 50%-33% inclusion in other regions
Ledyba family
Spinarak family
Natu family
Mareep family
Aipom family
Yanma family
Misdreavus family
Girafarig
Dunsparce
Gligar family
Snubbull family
Shuckle
Swinub family
Remoraid family
Houndour family
Smeargle
Miltank
Skitty family
Mawile
Aron family
Meditate family
Spoink family
Zangoose
Seviper
Lunatone
Solrock
Kecleon
Torpius
Chimecho
Buizel family
Shellos family
Buneary family
Skorupi family
Crogunk family
Carnivine
Finneon family
Patrat family
Purrloin family
The elemental monkeys
Woobat family
Audino
Timbur family
Throh (But if Sawk is already confirmed, Throh probably is as well)
Venipede family
Dewbble family
Sigilyph
Gothita family
Solosis family
Ducklet family
Karrablast and Shelment family
Foongus family
Ferroseed family
Litwick family
Cubchoo family
Stunfisk
Heatmor and Durant
Larvesta family
Litleo family
Furfrou
Skrelp family
Clauncher family
Dedenne

Good luck to all, and if your favorite pokemon is not included in Sword/Shield, I hope they patch it in!

 

[Sydian]

sorry if i missed it in that post but how likely do you think the chances of, mmmmm let's say the UHHHHH alolan forms. how likely you think they are.......considering all alolan form pokemon are gen I and their inclusion in LGPE makes it seem likely

 

[745x571]

sorry if i missed it in that post but how likely do you think the chances of, mmmmm let's say the UHHHHH alolan forms. how likely you think they are.......considering all alolan form pokemon are gen I and their inclusion in LGPE makes it seem likely

Since the Kanto and Alolan forms share pokedex slots in SM/USUM/LGPE in a way that is considered a different form and not a distinct species, it's safe to assume that if they accept all Kanto pokemon, their Alolan forms will not be banned. Not that this is a guarantee, but I consider it highly likely. I don't think they can be found in the wild, since this isn't Alola, but I would not be surprised if there's going to be in-game trades for them like in LGPE.

 

[Fairy]

I have no idea if any of this is grounded in reality but I am super, super impressed anyway.