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i reckon turtwig because his last evolution, torterra can cover all of its weakness:
earthquake covers fire, and poison.
and rock slide covers flying and ice and bug.
and then i just add on other moves like dig and stone edge.
so torterra is 78% chance the best.
Piplup, it was the first starter I picked and was just the better and stronger starter for me. I picked Turtwig/Torterra in Platinum but it just didn't seem as good or as able to battle as Piplup/Empoleon. I really don't like Chimchars line at all. Easily my least favourite fire starter and least favourite starter pokemon overall.
Torterra.
I think it's the best because of secondary Ground-typing, which gives it propably the best offensive STAB of all Grass-types and has immunity to Thunder Wave and is one of the few Pokemon that resist Ground/Rock attacking combination. It's also very slow which is quite advantaging in a way: Trick Room. Being the slowest starter (so far) it becames the fastest when Trick Room is in effect.
It's hard to choose from Turtwig amd Chimchar. I loved having them both (Turtwig in Diamond, Chimchar in Platinum). Once Torterra learns Earthquake it's very hard to defeat. Infernape's attacks are amazing too.