FreakyLocz14
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Since when was the nominee decided? That won't happen for another year.
The US 2012 Elections Thread / American Politics Discussion
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Mario The World Champion
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I seriously HATE him. He was the Governor of Massachusetts before Deval Patrick and he's the one who signed that stupid health law, the one where you have to have it or get fined. I don't think he's a good nominee anyway because he leans towards the middle in many issues Republicans hold dear.
This Thread should have been named "Mitt Romney: a good candidate for the Republicans?"
This Thread should have been named "Mitt Romney: a good candidate for the Republicans?"
The Trotsky
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I mean, he's not the nominee yet, but I'd hope he will be. He is the least offensive of the Republicans by far
FreakyLocz14
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RomneyCare is the exact reason why I won't be supporting him in the primaries. Ron Paul is the best choice.
The Trotsky
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Ron Paul is never a good choice for anything other than gynecology
FreakyLocz14
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Recent polls have shown him in a statistical tie with President Obama if the election were held today. The general election isn't Paul's biggest hurdle that he has to overcome. The primaries are his biggest hurdle. Paul would a very strong candidate to run against Obama.
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I'd love to see that poll, personally. Because I find that extremely hard to believe. Especially after the events of the past few days.
FreakyLocz14
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The polls are pre-Bin Laden death. Before that, it was 42% Obama and 41% Paul, which is well within the margin of error.
I'm hoping for a Ron Paul / Marco Rubio ticket.
The Trotsky
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https://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/mon-april-25-2011/indecision-2012---premature-ecalculation
Ron Paul has no business running this country. Few things could be worse for it at this point
FreakyLocz14
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The Daily Show? You get your news from there? I lol'd.
Early polls aren't an indication of the 2012 election, but they could see who is a strong candidate. I see Paul at least doing better than McCain did in 2008.
The Trotsky
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I watch it for entertainment, but it was relevant nonetheless. It was hardly a news piece as much as it was a piece detailing how ridiculous polls this early are. They don't even indicate strong candidacy. Lieberman was a weak candidate, to say the least
FreakyLocz14
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2012 US Elections (Non-Presidential)
Let's discuss all of the other elections going on in 2012 besides the Presidential election.
All of the seats in the House of Representatives and 33 Senate seats will be up for grabs, as well as various state and local elections.
I can't safely say whether or not President Obama will win or lose. Some GOP candidates like Romney and Paul would give him a tough challenge according to current polling, while he'd crush Sarah Palin if she were to be the GOP nominee.
What I can predict with somewhat confidence is that the Republicans will control both chambers of Congress, making a Republican President's first two years easy and Obama's (if he gets re-elected) difficult.
In the Senate, the Democrats have to defend 23 seats, while the Republicans only have to defend 10. The only Republican seat that the Democrats have any realistic chance of picking-up is that of Scott Brown; though current polling shows him winning by a slim margin against his most likely challengers.
Let's assume that Obama does win his re-election bid. That means that the Republicans need to take 4 Senate seats from the Democrats. There are already 2 that they most likely have in the bag. Those are the seats in Montana and North Dakota, where politics is getting more red everyday. That means that out of these toss-ups, they need to win 2 (or 3 if Brown falls in MA):
West Virginia: Senator Joe Manchin will need to distance himself further from Obama, especially in a Presidential year if he hopes to keep his Senate seat. Voting against repealing the health care law certainly doesn't help his 2012 chances.
Virginia: Jim Webb will be in for a tough fight in 2012. While VA does have a sizable African-American population, it only narrowly went for Obama in 2008; and there will be less enthusiasm in 2012 than in 2008. Whether or not the enthusiasm gap is enough for the GOP to take Webb out remains to be seen.
Nebraska: If only one of these toss-ups were to change hands, it would be Nebraska. Senator Ben Nelson is probably one of the most conservative Democrats in the Senate, but that might not be enough to save his hide in a Presidential year in a red state.
Delaware: Delaware is a solidly blue state, but two words would give the GOP a realistic chance of picking-up this seat: Mike Castle.
Florida: Bill Nelson could be in for a tough fight in a Presidential year in a swing state. Charlie Christ could give him a run for his money. Another charismatic Latino Republican could also energize the sizable Cuban-American population and put this seat in the GOP column.
Wisconsin: There are a few GOP names that are being floated around. Congressman Paul Ryan could prove competitive here. This one might be the one the tougher toss-ups for the GOP to flip, but it's possible.
Ohio: Sherrod Brown is also in for a tough race since this is a swing state in a Presidential year. Current polling slightly favors the incumbent, but this will still be a race to keep an eye on.
Missouri: Missouri is a swing state that tends to lean Republican in Presidential years, and that spells trouble for Claire McCaskill. Current polling shows that this race is a statistical tie.
Pennsylvania: This is also a swing state, but it leans Democratic in Presidential years. Like Wisconsin, this will be a tough seat for Republicans to take, but it is possible given the right candidate. Bob Casey, Jr. is a moderate Democrat that slightly leads all of his potential opponents in current polls.
Discuss.
Let's discuss all of the other elections going on in 2012 besides the Presidential election.
All of the seats in the House of Representatives and 33 Senate seats will be up for grabs, as well as various state and local elections.
I can't safely say whether or not President Obama will win or lose. Some GOP candidates like Romney and Paul would give him a tough challenge according to current polling, while he'd crush Sarah Palin if she were to be the GOP nominee.
What I can predict with somewhat confidence is that the Republicans will control both chambers of Congress, making a Republican President's first two years easy and Obama's (if he gets re-elected) difficult.
In the Senate, the Democrats have to defend 23 seats, while the Republicans only have to defend 10. The only Republican seat that the Democrats have any realistic chance of picking-up is that of Scott Brown; though current polling shows him winning by a slim margin against his most likely challengers.
Let's assume that Obama does win his re-election bid. That means that the Republicans need to take 4 Senate seats from the Democrats. There are already 2 that they most likely have in the bag. Those are the seats in Montana and North Dakota, where politics is getting more red everyday. That means that out of these toss-ups, they need to win 2 (or 3 if Brown falls in MA):
West Virginia: Senator Joe Manchin will need to distance himself further from Obama, especially in a Presidential year if he hopes to keep his Senate seat. Voting against repealing the health care law certainly doesn't help his 2012 chances.
Virginia: Jim Webb will be in for a tough fight in 2012. While VA does have a sizable African-American population, it only narrowly went for Obama in 2008; and there will be less enthusiasm in 2012 than in 2008. Whether or not the enthusiasm gap is enough for the GOP to take Webb out remains to be seen.
Nebraska: If only one of these toss-ups were to change hands, it would be Nebraska. Senator Ben Nelson is probably one of the most conservative Democrats in the Senate, but that might not be enough to save his hide in a Presidential year in a red state.
Delaware: Delaware is a solidly blue state, but two words would give the GOP a realistic chance of picking-up this seat: Mike Castle.
Florida: Bill Nelson could be in for a tough fight in a Presidential year in a swing state. Charlie Christ could give him a run for his money. Another charismatic Latino Republican could also energize the sizable Cuban-American population and put this seat in the GOP column.
Wisconsin: There are a few GOP names that are being floated around. Congressman Paul Ryan could prove competitive here. This one might be the one the tougher toss-ups for the GOP to flip, but it's possible.
Ohio: Sherrod Brown is also in for a tough race since this is a swing state in a Presidential year. Current polling slightly favors the incumbent, but this will still be a race to keep an eye on.
Missouri: Missouri is a swing state that tends to lean Republican in Presidential years, and that spells trouble for Claire McCaskill. Current polling shows that this race is a statistical tie.
Pennsylvania: This is also a swing state, but it leans Democratic in Presidential years. Like Wisconsin, this will be a tough seat for Republicans to take, but it is possible given the right candidate. Bob Casey, Jr. is a moderate Democrat that slightly leads all of his potential opponents in current polls.
Discuss.