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2016 US Presidential Elections Thread [Trump Wins]

Let's not forget that, unless the Convention changes the rules, the only two human beings that can be considered for the Republican nomination under the existing rulebook are Trump and Cruz. Full stop. End of.

Of course, the Convention can change the rule that says that "Only candidates that have won a majority of delegates in 8 states can be considered" to "Free for all", but it all depends on whose side controls the Rules comitee... and if there is anything Cruz's and Trump's supporters will agree on is, well, banning everybody else from the competition. So it depends on who gets to write the rules, really: if Cruz gets his people into the comitee, it's over for everybody else.
 
I hope Cruz wins then, because polls are indicating that Kasich would win Pennsylvania in a general election, and perhaps other moderate/establishment Republicans would have a fighting chance there too.
 
Well, let's not forget that the delegates aren't mysterious, shady Establishment pawns elected in private, but local activists chosen in state conventions that can be easily taken over by organised grasroots movements, like Paul did in 2012 and Cruz is alleged to be doing this year. In other words, chances are a sizeable amount of the delegates will be open Cruz supporters. Considering the (fewer) open Trump supporters elected in some other states, it's unlikely that the "backroom dealing guys" who want to remove both of them will get a majority to play with in the Convention.

We'll know when the rules comitee decides whether to allow someone else to run for the nomination. If the result is "yes", the "Establishment" can surprise us. If the answer is "no, only Trump and Cruz", expect Cruz to win if the vote goes to a second ballot and most of the Trump delegates start taking off their masks.
 
The New York Primaries for Republicans and Democrats are in five days on Tuesday, April 19 2016.

Polls close at 9:00PM. Both Republican and Democratic primaries are closed so if you are an independent, don't bother showing up. However, if you know that you are registered with one of two parties and they try to turn you away at the polling booth, give them hell.

Also, uh, don't forget your ID so they can't turn you away.

New discussion topic(s):

So there's going to be a Democratic debate later today. Who do you think will win (or have already won if you reply to this later) and how would it change the NY primaries (and potentially the rest of the race)? What's the state of the Republican race like now? Is a contested convention becoming more or less likely?
 
I'm curious to see how the Democratic debate tonight goes. Bernie is coming into it with a lot of wins, a lot of momentum, and both he and Hillary have certain claims or ties to New York - hers being its senator for a while, his having grown up there. How New York votes will be pretty important in the nomination so how well they do in the debate could be pretty consequential.

I expect there will be a LOT of talk about Wall Street. Since I'm a Bernie supporter I hope he'll get a chance to correct some of the weird things being said about him, like that thing with him being invited to the Vatican. Also, I want someone to mention Clinton's noise machine because, as silly as it seems, I think it goes to the heart of how money influences elections.
 
Getting Clinton to move from $12 to $15 min wage and removing income caps for SS is why I'm all for him staying through the Primaries.

Like without pressure from a strong rival, Clinton wouldn't be saying these things. This just makes both of them stronger general election candidates.
 
Getting Clinton to move from $12 to $15 min wage and removing income caps for SS is why I'm all for him staying through the Primaries.

Like without pressure from a strong rival, Clinton wouldn't be saying these things. This just makes both of them stronger general election candidates.

If she ends up in the White House, what's the likelihood that she'll execute on these positions she's recently moved to?
 
If she ends up in the White House, what's the likelihood that she'll execute on these positions she's recently moved to?
Not very likely is my guess. It would depend on whether or not the media keeps the pressure on her by keeping Bernie or someone like Bernie in the news who can remind her and the people that she made these statements. We know that politicians aren't the best at self-regulating. Also, the media has a short memory so I don't expect they'll want to focus on Bernie ever again if he's not the nominee.
 
You know, the last Democratic debate opened my eyes to a major issue in the American party system. Say what you will about Republicans candidates and their ideas, but you have to admit that conservatives and Republicans voters aren't afraid to stand up against their party establishment in large numbers. I feel that Democrats rally around Obama, and by extension the establishment, too much and it shuts down debate about very contentious issues - they are in this sense even more partisan than the Republicans.

When Sanders was giving a very legitimate critique about how Clinton receives big money donations from large corporate interests, how did she respond? "Obama did it too! Did that compromise Obama's decision making?" Invoke his name and all serious discussion stops because well, he's Obama? and the climate of the Democratic party is such that you can't seriously criticize him.

Obama's faced a lot of resistance from Congress for sure, but let's be real here. He has a string of broken promises where (I feel at least) he either didn't get a move on, or didn't create any concrete action. The more important ones have to do with getting rid of tax loopholes for the wealthy, preventing former lobbyists from serving in government, and paying for Social Security by increasing the payroll tax cap. These aren't instances where he got blocked by Congress, these are instances where he really didn't do much after he made promises. These are all instances that sound like the sort of thing big money interests want to lobby for.

And if we're going to talk about how Congress should be blamed for all of the things Obama couldn't accomplish, then that leads us right back to why big money should stay out of politics. It reinforces the point that you cannot expect to receive big money and not be influenced. It means that all politicians have to have a real opportunity at elected office without receiving exorbitant sums of money from big corporate donors. It means we need to get big money out of politics.

The fact that Hillary Clinton can just say Obama's name and throw this very important discussion, one that is fundamental to American democracy, out of a debate is absolutely deplorable. This is not the fault of Clinton, it's the fault of a party base that is too humble towards its establishment and unable to give critique where it counts.

Republicans might have a lot to say about liberty, but I'm sure they would have a lot to say about democracy as well. Democracy is less about free speech than it is about being heard. Even if everybody has the right to speak freely, if the marginalized remain voiceless, then democracy - that form of government that supposedly responds to the voices of the people - remains weak. The United States needs a bipartisan effort to get the influence of big money out of politics and allow the people to be heard. That's something I believe both Republicans and Democrats can get behind.

/endrant
 
Ugh. I want to disagree because I want to think that liberals and progressives are better than conservatives (sorry, that's my bias), but I'm thinking about the hundreds of people who were arrested protesting at the capitol this week and how no one's hear about it and I have to think that, yeah, the left side is not listening to anyone on the left who isn't behind Obama, Clinton, or the status quo.


Edit: Seems that a recent Reuters poll puts Bernie ahead of Clinton nationally 49-48. It's within the margin of error, but still the first time he's been ahead in any poll that I've seen.
 
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Ugh. I want to disagree because I want to think that liberals and progressives are better than conservatives (sorry, that's my bias), but I'm thinking about the hundreds of people who were arrested protesting at the capitol this week and how no one's hear about it and I have to think that, yeah, the left side is not listening to anyone on the left who isn't behind Obama, Clinton, or the status quo.


Edit: Seems that a recent Reuters poll puts Bernie ahead of Clinton nationally 49-48. It's within the margin of error, but still the first time he's been ahead in any poll that I've seen.

EDIT - I really misread your post, sorry :( and I wrote something that basically repeated what I posted before.

Personally, I don't think it's that the left is listening to the establishment as much as more mainstream and centrist gravitating too close to the establishment. But now I think about it, I suppose there are elements of the left who are being co-opted into the status quo message and that isn't something I approve of either.

Also, Sanders met with the Pope! Every media outlet was saying how that likely (or just flat out) wasn't going to happen because of scheduling and other details, so I am pleasantly surprised.
 
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Personally, I don't think it's that the left is listening to the establishment as much as more mainstream and centrist gravitating too close to the establishment. But now I think about it, I suppose there are elements of the left who are being co-opted into the status quo message and that isn't something I approve of either.

I mean, there are lots of Sanders supporters, but they really only have Bernie and maybe a few other politicians here and there who will support them or listen to them. Even the non-establishment right-wing groups like the tea partiers have someone like Ted Cruz or whoever to speak for them, and if they were arrested in large numbers for protesting someone would be talking about it.
 
I mean, there are lots of Sanders supporters, but they really only have Bernie and maybe a few other politicians here and there who will support them or listen to them. Even the non-establishment right-wing groups like the tea partiers have someone like Ted Cruz or whoever to speak for them, and if they were arrested in large numbers for protesting someone would be talking about it.

Hence the political revolution, I suppose. I hope Bernie Sanders is only the beginning - that there will be a cresting wave of political support for campaign finance reform, fighting income inequality, post-secondary education reform and transitioning from fossil fuels to new clean energy tech. I wish the Republican party was more of a progressive conservative party, one that applies smooth braking to the engine of progress not one that will run the vehicle off the road to stop it from moving forward.
 
You know, the last Democratic debate opened my eyes to a major issue in the American party system. Say what you will about Republicans candidates and their ideas, but you have to admit that conservatives and Republicans voters aren't afraid to stand up against their party establishment in large numbers. I feel that Democrats rally around Obama, and by extension the establishment, too much and it shuts down debate about very contentious issues - they are in this sense even more partisan than the Republicans.

When Sanders was giving a very legitimate critique about how Clinton receives big money donations from large corporate interests, how did she respond? "Obama did it too! Did that compromise Obama's decision making?" Invoke his name and all serious discussion stops because well, he's Obama? and the climate of the Democratic party is such that you can't seriously criticize him.

Obama's faced a lot of resistance from Congress for sure, but let's be real here. He has a string of broken promises where (I feel at least) he either didn't get a move on, or didn't create any concrete action. The more important ones have to do with getting rid of tax loopholes for the wealthy, preventing former lobbyists from serving in government, and paying for Social Security by increasing the payroll tax cap. These aren't instances where he got blocked by Congress, these are instances where he really didn't do much after he made promises. These are all instances that sound like the sort of thing big money interests want to lobby for.

And if we're going to talk about how Congress should be blamed for all of the things Obama couldn't accomplish, then that leads us right back to why big money should stay out of politics. It reinforces the point that you cannot expect to receive big money and not be influenced. It means that all politicians have to have a real opportunity at elected office without receiving exorbitant sums of money from big corporate donors. It means we need to get big money out of politics.

The fact that Hillary Clinton can just say Obama's name and throw this very important discussion, one that is fundamental to American democracy, out of a debate is absolutely deplorable. This is not the fault of Clinton, it's the fault of a party base that is too humble towards its establishment and unable to give critique where it counts.

Republicans might have a lot to say about liberty, but I'm sure they would have a lot to say about democracy as well. Democracy is less about free speech than it is about being heard. Even if everybody has the right to speak freely, if the marginalized remain voiceless, then democracy - that form of government that supposedly responds to the voices of the people - remains weak. The United States needs a bipartisan effort to get the influence of big money out of politics and allow the people to be heard. That's something I believe both Republicans and Democrats can get behind.

/endrant

I think it's more partisan intra-party, where Conservatives are more partisan outside of their party rank-and-file. The left isn't quite as homogenous and ideologically pure as the Right - I think that's why we have a Tea Party and the Conservative, establishment, "country club" republican party as two quite separate, distinct political entities. There's isn't a liberal equivalent of the Tea Party shooting off from the "Clinton democrats" just yet, but with the advent of Bernie Sanders, we could very well see that, or he could turn the entire party even more left, which I feel is more likely.
 
I think it's more partisan intra-party, where Conservatives are more partisan outside of their party rank-and-file. The left isn't quite as homogenous and ideologically pure as the Right - I think that's why we have a Tea Party and the Conservative, establishment, "country club" republican party as two quite separate, distinct political entities. There's isn't a liberal equivalent of the Tea Party shooting off from the "Clinton democrats" just yet, but with the advent of Bernie Sanders, we could very well see that, or he could turn the entire party even more left, which I feel is more likely.

Here's something I just read on Wikipedia:

As presidents, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama both reflected the priorities of the second New Democrat coalition, uniting donors from Wall Street, Hollywood, and Silicon Valley with a "new majority" coalition of racial minorities, immigrants, liberal women, and young voters. Because Democratic voters are disproportionately poor, this has produced a Democratic Party that, in economic terms, is an hourglass coalition of the top and the bottom. Economic populism frightens the party's billionaire donors, while social populism, which has often been associated with white working-class xenophobia, racism and religiosity, frightens blacks, Latinos, immigrants and white social liberals. The result is what Mike Konczal and others have called "pity-charity" liberalism — a kind of liberalism that appeals to the sympathy of the rich for the poor, rather than appealing, as the New Deal did, to solidarity among the middling majority.

Would the party turn left? I don't think so, the Democratic party could probably win elections anyways. Blacks will overwhelmingly vote Democrat, Latinos vote also vote quite strongly for Democrats and will probably continue to do so as long as Republicans don't budge on immigration reform, Asian Americans tend to be more affluent and can be appealed with low taxes, but they're a small part of the voting bloc and apparently have low turnouts so electorally they're not very important. The two parties will compete for white voters who make up about 75% of the electorate (source), but the Democrats have a distinct demographic advantage that won't go away any time soon.

Based on what I understand, the Democratic party shifted rightwards towards the centre to appeal more to white voters who wanted fiscal conservatism starting with Clinton being the first president to embody this movement and continuing with Obama, and likely Hillary Clinton if she gets the nomination. If the political culture of the US doesn't change, then I think the Democratic party would want to hold on to those white voters it's captured. I think there's no reason to change because the minority bloc is voting for the Democrats anyways, and they need as many white voters as they can get.

I'm not very informed on how election turnouts get into the mix as well as the intricacies of the electoral college, so everything I've said might be distorted.

On a "Tea Party" for the democrats, I'm not too optimistic about that either. The Tea Party had clear political initiatives that it could oppose: the bailout and health care reform. Fighting income inequality and returning democracy to the people could be just as sexy, but it's just business as usual and I don't think there's a big event or happening that people can point to. Furthermore, the Tea Party movement fights for lower taxes and reduced government intervention, which can appeal greatly to business elites and attract political donations as well as media attention from them. I'm sure there are anti-corporate Tea Partiers as well but as far as corporate America is concerned, that's mere rhetoric as long as they remain like-minded on economic policy. The kind of movement that Sanders is inspiring would get zero support from the elite. I suppose this is the kind of scenario where the trade union movement could come into play but, in my understanding, it is weak in the United States.

I think the only solution is making income inequality and democratic reforms really really sexy. That'd give the Democratic party a good reason to move to the left, and that'd also compensate for the lack of elite support for an influential progressive movement. Trouble is that one does not simply "make" issues prominent.

I've probably left a thing or two out - I don't live in the United States, so I don't have the same on-the-ground experience that allows you to better assess what's relevant and what isn't. What are your reasons for believing that Sanders could turn the Democrats more to the left? Believe me, I wish that would both be true and not cost the Democratic party the White House and Congress.
 
Speaking of on the ground, the Washington State 34th District caucuses were a mess. It took 10 hours for what should have been at most a 4-5 hour process. There was a lot of shady stuff that went on IMO and as a delegate not having the votes for Congressional District delegates counted tonight when we had ample and excited members of the tallying committee after the Committee chair (who left Midway, got a surrogate to take over and just came back at the end in 9:00 PM) declare that they'll email us the results was the icing to the cake and quite shameful.

If I get elected as a CD delegate I'm going to raise issue with the Washington State Democratic party about this inherently disenfranchising (I.E. the time excruciating hurdle) caucus process.
 
Speaking of on the ground, the Washington State 34th District caucuses were a mess. It took 10 hours for what should have been at most a 4-5 hour process. There was a lot of shady stuff that went on IMO and as a delegate not having the votes for Congressional District delegates counted tonight when we had ample and excited members of the tallying committee after the Committee chair (who left Midway, got a surrogate to take over and just came back at the end in 9:00 PM) declare that they'll email us the results was the icing to the cake and quite shameful.

If I get elected as a CD delegate I'm going to raise issue with the Washington State Democratic party about this inherently disenfranchising (I.E. the time excruciating hurdle) caucus process.

Please get elected as a CD delegate, whatever that is.

I think I've changed my mind a bit regarding the previous post. I think Bernie Sanders could have a greater appeal to working class whites, due to his position on trade and economic populism. I have no idea how that would play out against Trump or Cruz, since I am not a working class white male and I don't really know much about working class white American males, but I think Sanders' policy positions are a factor, if not a significant one. But then again, the Democratic Party might not need these voters if they have a winning coalition anyways. Could they count on Trump and Cruz reducing turnout for whites alone? Clinton herself might also reduce turnout for white voters, but I think both her presence and the opposition would galvanize black and Latino voters to turn out.

These questions are posed for everyone, I guess: How do you think these primaries will affect American politics going forward, regardless of their outcomes? Have they already changed the political landscape?
 
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It's the Congressional District caucuses (CD)

It goes like this:

- Precinct Caucuses (Which was the one back in March 22)
- Legislative District Caucuses (Today)
- County Convention (For rules and Congressional purposes only, not Presidential. Open to all LD's) (May 1)
- Congressional District caucus (May 22)
- State Convention (June 14)
- National Convention (August)

Also, you have to fund yourself as a delegate to drive to the conventions otherwise YOUR VOTE DIDN'T COUNT. See how Caucuses are inherently disenfranchising? Still at least now the distribution of delegates is set in stone and can't be manipulated.

Oh best part of this whole thing, our specific legislative district caucus made it in the front page of the Seattle Times website!

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattl...f-disorganized-legislative-district-caucuses/
 
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CNN just projected Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton winners in New York.
 
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