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How rare is it to pick up a 10km egg?

High on Drugs

High on Drugs

    • 19
    Posts
    8
    Years
    • Seen Sep 25, 2016
    Or is it even possible? I remember i got 2 from the start and i regret hatching it early (got an 88 onix and 156 aerodactyl) Now that i'm level 20 and hatched like 20+ eggs i still havent gotten a 10km one.
     
    It seems like they've become a lot rarer, towards the start of the game there was a time where I had three in quick succession, but now I hardly get any. Niantic probably increased the rarity of them.
     
    It's completely random.

    From levels 1 to 26 (cumulative 900,000 experience), I only hatched six 10km eggs.

    But from levels 26 to halfway to 30 (cumulative ~900,000 experience), I hatched 27 10km eggs. And I have another ready to hatch in about 0.8km as I'm typing this.

    This player I bumped into several times is about the same level as me and he's hatched 55 10km eggs.

    You're level 20 and you've gotten a total of two 10km eggs.

    My mother is level 16 and she's gotten seven 10km eggs already (but only hatched two).

    How many eggs have you hatched lifetime? Do you bulk hatch eggs? I slowly whittle out all 2km eggs from my inventory, hatching them one by one with the infinite incubator. As soon as I have eight or nine 5km and/or 10km eggs, I purchase eight incubators and incubate all eggs. It's how I often end up hatching 15-20 eggs per day and I'm at 420 total eggs hatched as of this moment.
     
    I received none until level 20 (where I am now), and then got 3 in quick succession.
     
    I've always found that if I hatch loads of eggs so I have 5-6 free spots for eggs then hit the pokestops to get back up to 9 eggs then 1 of those 6 I pick up will be a 10k, particularly if on a stop I pick up 2 eggs on of them will probably be the 10k
     
    I've gotten 2 in about 40 eggs, and the second was an Eevee. Curse them for putting Eevee in a 10km egg.
     
    Phoenixstarz said:
    I've always found that if I hatch loads of eggs so I have 5-6 free spots for eggs then hit the pokestops to get back up to 9 eggs then 1 of those 6 I pick up will be a 10k, particularly if on a stop I pick up 2 eggs on of them will probably be the 10k
    Click to expand...

    Interesting. Thanks for the tip.
     
    Hmm then buying incubators is a must to do that, unless you go to 0 pokestops until half your eggs has been hatched..
     
    I'm level 20 and I've had two 10km eggs. Once when I first started the game, which hatched an Eevee, and one that I hatched yesterday, which gave me a Chansey.
     
    I have not gotten a single 10K egg since I was level 10. It's so weird. I only have 5k eggs right now and haven't gotten a single 2k since I was level 15.

    maybe it's level based?
     
    It is completely random.

    If you're not into spending money in the game (meaning limited incubators), then prioritize hatching as many 2km eggs as you can as fast as you can so you can visit PokéStops to grab more eggs.

    More eggs hatched = more new eggs you can obtain.

    I'm well past 400 eggs hatched lifetime and a little less than 10% of those eggs were 10km ones.
     
    Phoenixstarz said:
    I've always found that if I hatch loads of eggs so I have 5-6 free spots for eggs then hit the pokestops to get back up to 9 eggs then 1 of those 6 I pick up will be a 10k, particularly if on a stop I pick up 2 eggs on of them will probably be the 10k
    Click to expand...

    Fortunately this is nonsense originating from confirmation bias :)

    10km eggs are quite rare, and its random, but the human brain despises randomness and will make up nonsense just to find an explanation that is different from randomness, even a really bad explanation is somehow preferred over randomness.
     
    Neltharion83 said:
    Fortunately this is nonsense originating from confirmation bias :)

    10km eggs are quite rare, and its random, but the human brain despises randomness and will make up nonsense just to find an explanation that is different from randomness, even a really bad explanation is somehow preferred over randomness.
    Click to expand...

    Lol you taking this far too seriously, and since doing it the way I do works well for me I intend on continuing doing it.
    But seriously though put your phone down for 5 minutes and chill out.
     
    Phoenixstarz said:
    Lol you taking this far too seriously, and since doing it the way I do works well for me I intend on continuing doing it.
    But seriously though put your phone down for 5 minutes and chill out.
    Click to expand...

    If you hatch multiple eggs in quick succession, and then have 5-6 free slots, and then visit pokestops, you will get the majority of your eggs that way, including the majority of your 10k eggs. You will also be getting your 5k eggs and 2k eggs this way.

    So while the method objectively does not work, it will continue to work for you. It is basically like a person taking homeopathy and believing it works, because the majority of small medical issues like a seasonal flu or a stomach ache or a bruised knee will get better on their own. But because the homeopathy-believer will always take homeopathy with it, it is misattributed to homeopathy.

    Now the reason i point it out is because others might believe you, and there is a bad side-effect: Your belief, if taken seriously, implies that you can only get 10km eggs if you spend a lot of money on incubators. Like having 9 incubators running most of the time, which translates into a cost of around 10 euros every 15 kilometers.

    In reality it is random, and you will ALSO get the 10k eggs if you work with the eternal incubator and maybe only occasionally buy one incubator from the shop.
     
    Like I mentioned earlier, it's all random. If you think of 10km eggs as winning tickets to a scratch off lottery, then you simply improve your chances of "winning" by obtaining more tickets.

    Of course, you'll also inevitably collect more "losing" tickets as well, in this case 2km and 5km eggs.

    This is why I asked in my first response here whether or not the OP bulk hatches eggs/buys incubators. OP hatched 20 eggs by level 20. I can hatch 20 eggs in one day. The more eggs you hatch, the more new eggs you'll see, the more opportunities you have in seeing a 10km one. Mind you, just because you have the opportunity doesn't mean you'll actually get anything. Why? Because it's random. It's as simple as simple can get.

    Completely random. It's fact. Not opinion.
     
    Last edited:
    Well, I'm level 20 and have only ever caught 2 10K eggs. The first was early on, at about level 7, and the second was at level 19. I haven't been counting exactly but I would estimate that I have probably collected about 30 eggs in total, so going from that, the rate would be about 1 in 15, but of course a much larger sample size would be needed to say anything for sure.

    I think they're the right level of rare for now
     
    I get that it's random and it's still to early to have enough data but I will give examples of what I've seen so far.
    When I've had 8 empty spots for eggs I always get at least 1 10k egg from pokestops, I usually get a 10k egg when I get 2 eggs from the same stop.
    So with 10 empty spots with a minimum of 1 10k egg means that in that situation I have more than 12.5% chance per egg
    When I have 4 empty spots I generally find that betweem 1 in 2-3 times in that Sitaution I get a 10k egg and again it's usually when I get 2 eggs from the same stop so with 4 empty spots I have about 10% chance per egg.
    In the last week I've not had any extra incubators so only been picking up eggs once at a time and with hatching 4 eggs a day it took me 10 days to get a 10k egg. So in that case a 2.5% chance of a 10k egg
    Like I said it's still too early to say definatively that the more eggs you collect in short time the better chance of a 10k it has been clear that most the 10k's I've picked up has been when I've picked up 2 eggs from the same stop. More empty egg spaces increases the chance of that so it's definitely worth investigating further.
     
    There is no way that the distribution of eggs is "Statistically Random". If it were truly random, we would see a more equal distribution of eggs when you go to a Poke Stop.

    For example:

    Consider a 6-sided dice. Each roll of the dice is considered a random event. But over several rolls, the occurence of numbers starts to equal out.
     
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