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- Seen Jan 2, 2014
This thread is dedicated to anyone else on the hunt for a Shiny/Max IV Mewtwo and also to confirm the facts that I have discovered/calculated. In some cases I will need some confirmation, but I am fairly certain, due to my academic background in Mathematics (Senior High-School Teacher).
First of all, I am assuming the rate of finding a shiny Pokemon is the same as in previous series; 1/8192. I am also assuming that Mewtwo is not shiny locked (need confirmation). Finally, all of my calculations are based on a Modest Mewtwo as I am using a Modest synchronizer and am simply ignoring any other natures in my search (but not in my Maths below).
After many soft resets, I have determined the following are the possible Max IVs for a Modest Mewtwo:
HP: 250
Attack: 162
Defense: 152
Sp. Attack: 266
Sp. Defense: 152
Speed: 208
Since in Generation VI, Legendaries are given 3 guaranteed max IVs, the chance of getting Max IVs is as follows:
P(3 Max IVs of your choice) = (3/6)*(2/5)*(1/4) = 0.05 = 5% = 1/20
Given that any 3 are guaranteed to be at Max, this makes the following calculations:
P(Any 4 Max IV) = 1/32
P(Any 5 Max IV) = (1/32)*(1/32) = 1/1024
P(Any 6 Max IV) = (1/32)*(1/32)*(1/32) = 1/32768
Keep in mind that since I am looking for a Modest Mewtwo in particular, which is only a 50% chance due to synchronizer, the above rates need to be doubled. This means that the chance of getting a Max IV Mewtwo, that is Modest, is now 1/65,536 ignoring the insignificant probability of getting a Modest nature due to random chance (not synchronize effect).
In all honesty, if I were to settle for a Modest Mewtwo that had 31 in everything BUT Attack (since I won't be using it and it is decreased due to Modest anyway), that would only be 1/12,288 (1/1024 * 1/6 * 2) rate which is decent in my opinion. I would still have a random IV from 0-32 for it, so that would be good enough for me.
I will almost certainly find the Shiny Mewtwo first which I will snatch and keep, but I don't even know for sure if it's Shiny locked or not. The quicker the confirmation, the better!
I will update this post with the best Mewtwo I have found so far. I am not settling for anything less than Modest 31/x/31/31/31/31, or a Shiny.
Previous Best Finds:
Modest - 250/162/152/264/151/205 = 31/31/31/29/30/28 (Rejected)
Modest - 250/162/148/266/148/208 = 31/31/27/31/27/31 (Rejected)
Modest - 250/159/152/266/152/205 = 31/28/31/31/31/28 (Rejected)
Modest - 250/146/151/266/152/208 = 31/15/30/31/31/31 (Rejected)
Current Best:
Modest - 250/162/152/266/147/208 = 31/31/31/31/26/31 (Rejected)
I'm totally gonna regret not settling for this, aren't I?
THE SEARCH IS OVER:
SETTLED FOR: 250/162/152/266/152/207 = 31/31/31/31/31/30
I know I wouldn't settle for less so I am a tiny bit disappointed for not keep true to my goal but I couldn't let it go. I might for a perfect/shiny Zygarde or Moltres at a later date.
First of all, I am assuming the rate of finding a shiny Pokemon is the same as in previous series; 1/8192. I am also assuming that Mewtwo is not shiny locked (need confirmation). Finally, all of my calculations are based on a Modest Mewtwo as I am using a Modest synchronizer and am simply ignoring any other natures in my search (but not in my Maths below).
After many soft resets, I have determined the following are the possible Max IVs for a Modest Mewtwo:
HP: 250
Attack: 162
Defense: 152
Sp. Attack: 266
Sp. Defense: 152
Speed: 208
Since in Generation VI, Legendaries are given 3 guaranteed max IVs, the chance of getting Max IVs is as follows:
P(3 Max IVs of your choice) = (3/6)*(2/5)*(1/4) = 0.05 = 5% = 1/20
Given that any 3 are guaranteed to be at Max, this makes the following calculations:
P(Any 4 Max IV) = 1/32
P(Any 5 Max IV) = (1/32)*(1/32) = 1/1024
P(Any 6 Max IV) = (1/32)*(1/32)*(1/32) = 1/32768
Keep in mind that since I am looking for a Modest Mewtwo in particular, which is only a 50% chance due to synchronizer, the above rates need to be doubled. This means that the chance of getting a Max IV Mewtwo, that is Modest, is now 1/65,536 ignoring the insignificant probability of getting a Modest nature due to random chance (not synchronize effect).
In all honesty, if I were to settle for a Modest Mewtwo that had 31 in everything BUT Attack (since I won't be using it and it is decreased due to Modest anyway), that would only be 1/12,288 (1/1024 * 1/6 * 2) rate which is decent in my opinion. I would still have a random IV from 0-32 for it, so that would be good enough for me.
I will almost certainly find the Shiny Mewtwo first which I will snatch and keep, but I don't even know for sure if it's Shiny locked or not. The quicker the confirmation, the better!
I will update this post with the best Mewtwo I have found so far. I am not settling for anything less than Modest 31/x/31/31/31/31, or a Shiny.
Previous Best Finds:
Modest - 250/162/152/264/151/205 = 31/31/31/29/30/28 (Rejected)
Modest - 250/162/148/266/148/208 = 31/31/27/31/27/31 (Rejected)
Modest - 250/159/152/266/152/205 = 31/28/31/31/31/28 (Rejected)
Modest - 250/146/151/266/152/208 = 31/15/30/31/31/31 (Rejected)
Current Best:
Modest - 250/162/152/266/147/208 = 31/31/31/31/26/31 (Rejected)
I'm totally gonna regret not settling for this, aren't I?
THE SEARCH IS OVER:
SETTLED FOR: 250/162/152/266/152/207 = 31/31/31/31/31/30
I know I wouldn't settle for less so I am a tiny bit disappointed for not keep true to my goal but I couldn't let it go. I might for a perfect/shiny Zygarde or Moltres at a later date.
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