Once in a Blue Moon | Epilogue

Ullion said:

Go back to day 1. :P I joined the CapsFan bandwagon after Klippy shared what he wanted done. I continued to add my thoughts though, that being Lostelle was rubbing me the wrong way, and if it wasn't for Klippy starting a bandwagon, I would have swapped my vote over to Lostelle.

Then CapsFan made his vote for Lostelle, shared his thoughts on a few players and suggesting anyone who knew how to play mafia should vote for Lostelle. So I figured I'd follow through with my earlier claims and go lynch Lostelle as well. A few more people followed suit, then Lostelle got killed.

Now tell me, why would I go through that much trouble to get my thief killed if I were the Savoir? Hm? Nice try in getting me lynched tomorrow. I'll be sure to keep my eye on you Johnny. *glares*


Now... would you like me to go back and quote the posts I'm referring to?

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Superjolt said:

Ok well first, [Lynch] Bardothren

Next:

Well, I have some things to consider/look into

Let's look back at the D1 wagons. I think it's still important to look at who was voting for CapsFan

Here's the D1 wagons (in the spoiler)

Spoiler:

What the votes looked like at height of the CapsFan wagon, before Lost wagon started
TheCapsFan: 12 (Superjolt, Klippy, Lostelle, Elektra Heart, Bardothren, JohnnyMustang, Ullion, Lisia, Sun, jdthebud, Kaneki, Draskk)
GreyBidoof: 2 (GreyBidoof, Collector Elwood)
Lostelle: 1 (TheCapsFan)
Sun: 1 (Lycanthropy)

Not Voting: Davepetasprite^2, Merlin, Melody

Height of Lost wagon before Lost was killed
TheCapsFan: 8 (Superjolt, Klippy, Lostelle, JohnnyMustang, Lisia, Sun, jdthebud, Draskk)
Lostelle: 6 (Ullion, Bardothren, Elektra Heart, Davepetasprite^2, Kaneki, Merlin)
GreyBidoof: 2 (GreyBidoof, Collector Elwood)
Lostelle: 1 (TheCapsFan)
Sun: 1 (Lycanthropy)

Not Voting: Melody

I think it's safe to assume most if not all of the mafia stayed on CapsFan. There's already two confirmed mafia on the wagon (Lost and Sun). I want to point out jd and Draskk's votes, which came in after CapsFan defended himself (and I think Ullion even pointed out Draskk's vote during D1). Lisia's vote kind of stands out too for some reason (not really sure about her though, I haven't gotten a town read on her yet at least). Anyway the point is, I think jd and Draskk look the most suspicious after the D1 wagons, and are probably worth looking into (and I have more on jd below)

Next up, I looked back at the interactions with Sun from yesterday. Here's a few things I noticed:
- jd says he'll wait for Sun to answer Ullion's questions in this post. This implies jd would have had more to say, so why not follow up on this when Sun answered Ullion two posts later? Also notice how jd never interacts directly with Sun (instead he sits back and watches). I think jd could be a potential teammate here.
- Kaneki does a complete turnaround, first saying he thinks Sun is inno here then says Sun isn't doing enough to ease suspicion here (but you said Sun was inno, where did your suspicion come from?)
- Merlin is likely town after his interaction with Sun

So I think jd, Draskk and possibly Kaneki are worth looking into next

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jdthebud said:

And something comes up three minutes after I post though I took an hour to notice! Thanks for noticing me Superjolt, and I must say I'm becoming a fan of your playstyle.

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jdthebud said:

You're over-analyzing here, I actually didn't have anything more to say, I was simply interested in hearing more details of Sun's claim, just like Ullion. After Sun and Merlin got into it, I was eating popcorn :) I am kind of a mafia game watcher in general, so I don't think that should surprise anyone. But like I said earlier, I'm becoming a fan of your playstyle so I'm going to try and be more active on sharing my reads.

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jdthebud said:

On the people you brought up:
- Lisia seems to be standing back from the action like me, so she's kind of at neutral right now.
- I do agree that Merlin seems town-sided after that surprisingly non-salty exchange with Sun.
- Both Draskk and GreyBidoof have all been fairly inactive with posting (like me, haha, though I have done my best to read up during the day when I can), so it's fairly tough to get a good read on them. GreyBidoof voted for himself, which usually isn't a scum tactic, but it was at the end of the day.
- Kaneki!!! has been erratic, but he kind of always is. Is it strategy? Dunno, but it sure makes it hard to read him sometimes.

...I think I need to work on my reads...

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Elektra Heart said:

Although I don't have a megapost full of analyzation, I would like to point out how often Draskk is known to vote for someone who is clearly no longer viable for no given reason. I wouldn't look into this one much.

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Draskk said:

Ok first off im sick, second school and musical practice take up a lot of my time, plus I prefer to watch then go into the fray
I am classy man with substantial amount of money

For caps well I was tired so I didnt read it all so I went with the bandwagon

Like I am now [Kill] Bardothren

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Kaneki!!! said:

Ok first kill bardothren second, I said that my bets were on Sun being inocent but him refusing to tell us information was not contributing a lot to clear his name (at least that was what I meant)

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Lycanthropy said:

I can add a bit on Day 2: the first few people to vote on Sun were (in order): Elwood, Klippy, Bard, Merlin, Lisia. They are likely to be non-Rebels, certainly since it was mainly Elwood and Merlin who were cross examining him. Also, Gunner is also clear as confirmed by Bard. (Who admitted to be a bad guy, but still...)
Anyway, my main suspicions are on Kaneki, because of his acting towards Sun.
[KILL] Kaneki!!!

All in all, since there are two groups of bad guys, almost none of the "confirmed" people are confirmed on both sides, which makes the game somewhat hard.

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