May calls UK snap election

Lipstick Vogue · Apr 18, 2017

Where my UKIP bros at????

Hands · Apr 18, 2017

Lipstick Vogue said:
Where my UKIP bros at????

Swigging Stella down the back of the dole center I'd imagine.

pkmin3033 · Apr 18, 2017

It's 2020 already?

Talk about a u-turn. May must be pretty confident she can keep her position as Prime Minister...either that or she's had enough and knows she can't keep pretending like she has a plan for Brexit for much longer. Or she's fed up with Nicola Sturgeon pushing for a badly timed second referendum for no logical reason whatsoever. Or she doesn't want to deal with Trump. I can think of plenty of reasons for her to want out of the job right now.

She can't seriously think the commons will "come together" whether she wins or not. No matter who is Prime Minister right now, their every move is going to be criticised from every angle. Nothing will really change if she wins this; it's a stall tactic, plain and simple. As long as she's Prime Minister, she's going to run the Brexit process however the hell she pleases, and everyone knows it. All she's doing is giving her opposition a last gasp before she relentlessly crushes them under her heel.

That said, I really hope this doesn't backfire on her and we somehow end up with Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister, because that would probably be even worse. Seems unlikely, but...well, Brexit seemed unlikely, and so did Trump. A 20-point lead in the polls doesn't guarantee her a victory in this. Seven weeks is not a lot of time, but a lot can still happen. This is going to be interesting.

Cry havoc, and let slip the dogs of war.

blue · Apr 18, 2017

where's nige when you need him

Hands · Apr 18, 2017

Meyneth said:
It's 2020 already?

Talk about a u-turn. May must be pretty confident she can keep her position as Prime Minister...either that or she's had enough and knows she can't keep pretending like she has a plan for Brexit for much longer. Or she's fed up with Nicola Sturgeon pushing for a badly timed second referendum for no logical reason whatsoever. Or she doesn't want to deal with Trump. I can think of plenty of reasons for her to want out of the job right now.

She can't seriously think the commons will "come together" whether she wins or not. No matter who is Prime Minister right now, their every move is going to be criticised from every angle. Nothing will really change if she wins this; it's a stall tactic, plain and simple. As long as she's Prime Minister, she's going to run the Brexit process however the hell she pleases, and everyone knows it. All she's doing is giving her opposition a last gasp before she relentlessly crushes them under her heel.

That said, I really hope this doesn't backfire on her and we somehow end up with Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister, because that would probably be even worse. Seems unlikely, but...well, Brexit seemed unlikely, and so did Trump. A 20-point lead in the polls doesn't guarantee her a victory in this. Seven weeks is not a lot of time, but a lot can still happen. This is going to be interesting.

Cry havoc, and let slip the dogs of war.

Say what you will about Corbyn, but a shaved chimp would make a better PM than May.

pkmin3033 · Apr 18, 2017

Hands said:
Say what you will about Corbyn, but a shaved chimp would make a better PM than May.

That I can't argue with. Unfortunately, Corbyn is not shaved.

Hands · Apr 18, 2017

Meyneth said:
That I can't argue with. Unfortunately, Corbyn is not shaved.

No but his policies are solid, his voting record is solid and his performance as an MP are solid which are three things May doesn't have.

Sword Master · Apr 18, 2017

Corbyn as Prime Minister is Britain committing suicide, I'm predicting a comfortable win for the tories, and a humiliating defeat for Corbyn.

Hands · Apr 18, 2017

Sword Master said:
Corbyn as Prime Minister is Britain committing suicide, I'm predicting a comfortable win for the tories, and a humiliating defeat for Corbyn.

What are you basing this on? May's govt has borrowed more in 7 years than every labour govt in history combined, homelessness is up, food bank usage is up, suicide is up, the NHS is in tatters, the police are under funded, the pound is at a 30 year low and austerity has killed tens of thousands of your fellow Brits. How could that be better than a minimum wage that reflects inflation and the cost of living, appropriate funding for the NHS, Schools and the police, fairer taxation and the renationalisation of the energy sector?

LilyGardy · Apr 19, 2017

Looking in the history files this will be the first snap election since the 1970s.

The Conservatives have really hurt the less well off in their time in power and the damage to the NHS is very worrying for me.

Despite not being all in on Corbyn I will be voting for Labour on June 8th.

Ivysaur · Apr 19, 2017

Look at the polls. There is a +15/+20 lead for the Tories. If they keep half of that advantage against an incredibly unpopular Corbyn who has no clear position on Brexit -and who could bleed remainer support to the Lib-Dems-, May will end up with a 100 seat+ majority in the Commons, at which point Labour becomes irrelevant and the Tory backbenchers lose their grip on her.

Of course, the timing of everything else is abysmal. The last thing you need right now is Sturgeon scoring another landslide in Scotland, a few more months of Brexit negotiating time wasted, and more chaos in Northern Ireland, because the unionists losing their majority and the power-sharing government collapsing wasn't good enough. If Sinn Fein win the upcoming Westminster elections, then chances are May have pretty much sacrificed the "United" Kingdom in exchange for strenghtening her grip over England (and Wales).

Hands · Apr 19, 2017

Ivysaur said:
Look at the polls. There is a +15/+20 lead for the Tories. If they keep half of that advantage against an incredibly unpopular Corbyn who has no clear position on Brexit -and who could bleed remainer support to the Lib-Dems-, May will end up with a 100 seat+ majority in the Commons, at which point Labour becomes irrelevant and the Tory backbenchers lose their grip on her.

Of course, the timing of everything else is abysmal. The last thing you need right now is Sturgeon scoring another landslide in Scotland, a few more months of Brexit negotiating time wasted, and more chaos in Northern Ireland, because the unionists losing their majority and the power-sharing government collapsing wasn't good enough. If Sinn Fein win the upcoming Westminster elections, then chances are May have pretty much sacrificed the "United" Kingdom in exchange for strenghtening her grip over England (and Wales).

May has a 5 seat majority govt, she loses those and she can no longer run a majority govt. 20 of her seats are facing prosecution for electoral fraud. Great Yarmouth has voted no confidence in their Conservative MP, who only holds a small majority over UKIP and Labour as it is. That seat will fall. Waveney's tory MP only holds a small lead over Labour, and Lowestoft (one of the poorest towns in England) is in Waveney and will vote Labour. Norwich North was closely contested last election and Chloe Smith is hugely unpopular in the Mile Cross, Heartsease and Hellsedon Estates which are nearly all going to vote Labour or UKIP. The only seat in Scotland that the tories hold they won by less than 800 votes. SNP will take it on June 8th.

We are in no way near as bad of a position as you make out. Our policies are popular. A few polls of sample sizes of 1,000 people doesn't mean anything, especially when the majority of pollsters and the big media outlets are owned by Tory donors.

Also to say Corbyn has no clear position om Breixt is frankly horsecrap. He campaigned heavily to remain and when the vote came in he accepted the result and said that Labour must now seek to provide a Brexit that works for the many, not for the few.

Ivysaur · Apr 19, 2017

Hands said:
May has a 5 seat majority govt, she loses those and she can no longer run a majority govt. 20 of her seats are facing prosecution for electoral fraud. Great Yarmouth has voted no confidence in their Conservative MP, who only holds a small majority over UKIP and Labour as it is. That seat will fall. Waveney's tory MP only holds a small lead over Labour, and Lowestoft (one of the poorest towns in England) is in Waveney and will vote Labour. Norwich North was closely contested last election and Chloe Smith is hugely unpopular in the Mile Cross, Heartsease and Hellsedon Estates which are nearly all going to vote Labour or UKIP. The only seat in Scotland that the tories hold they won by less than 800 votes. SNP will take it on June 8th.

We are in no way near as bad of a position as you make out. Our policies are popular. A few polls of sample sizes of 1,000 people doesn't mean anything, especially when the majority of pollsters and the big media outlets are owned by Tory donors.

Also to say Corbyn has no clear position om Breixt is frankly horsecrap. He campaigned heavily to remain and when the vote came in he accepted the result and said that Labour must now seek to provide a Brexit that works for the many, not for the few.

Okay, dude, uh, how do I break it out to you. You must know what is the difference between a "clicker" and a poll? A "clicker" is when a website puts a list of options and says "hey, vote about what you think of X", and its only purpose is knowing the ideology of the people who visit that website- behold the hilarious results of the ""polls"" in the Daily Express. A poll, conducted by a professional company using standards of the British Polling Council, actually tries to get a representative sample of people all across the country. A poll with 1000 respondents carefully selected is much more accurate than a clicker with 23,000 voters from "people who watch ITV".

What the picture you posed shows is a clicker. What the scientific polls say is this:

As you can see, it doesn't look good.

The majority of the media is owned by Tories? Why, yes! And that is a problem- behold the mighty propaganda machine they had going for Brexit, and how it will work to sink Corbyn to the lowest dephs they can manage. But the pollsters? If the "Tory-owned" pollsters had got it right, Neil Kinnock would have beaten John Major in 1992 and there wouldn't be elections right now because PM Ed Milliband would have no need to call for any. So yeah, they make mistakes in both directions- and, in fact, historically, pollsters have tended to overestimate Labour, not the opposite.

All those close seats? Just look at the recent byelections! Labour somehow managed to lose a seat to the Government! That literally never happens! As in, last time something like that happened was like a century ago. If polls are half-right, Labour stands to lose scores of marginal seats- and not-so-marginal ones. Obviously May isn't going to call for snap elections to lose- she is doing it because she believes, based on the publicly available data, that she can sink Labour for a generation.

I admire your ardent belief in Labour, but the truth is, their message on Brexit is a mess. While May has branded herself as "Ms Brexit" and the Lib-Dems want to recall the Art. 50 notification and stop the process, Corbyn wants... a "Brexits that works for everyone". Or maybe that was the Tory slogan, I don't know, because their branding is horrible. Hardcore remainers will feel betrayed and brexiteers will rightly believe he's not being forceful enough about it. Labour is nowhere in this issue.

And, in case you are wondering, I'm a member of the Spanish Labour Party (PSOE), and I voted for the Corbyn-esque Podemos in our last elections, so there is nothing I'd hate mroe than see a Tory government as radical as May's. But Labour is going to commit suicide if they vote for holding the elections.

Hands · Apr 19, 2017

Ivysaur said:
Okay, dude, uh, how do I break it out to you. You must know what is the difference between a "clicker" and a poll? A "clicker" is when a website puts a list of options and says "hey, vote about what you think of X", and its only purpose is knowing the ideology of the people who visit that website- behold the hilarious results of the ""polls"" in the Daily Express. A poll, conducted by a professional company using standards of the British Polling Council, actually tries to get a representative sample of people all across the country. A poll with 1000 respondents carefully selected is much more accurate than a clicker with 23,000 voters from "people who watch ITV".

What the picture you posed shows is a clicker. What the scientific polls say is this:

As you can see, it doesn't look good.

The majority of the media is owned by Tories? Why, yes! And that is a problem- behold the mighty propaganda machine they had going for Brexit, and how it will work to sink Corbyn to the lowest dephs they can manage. But the pollsters? If the "Tory-owned" pollsters had got it right, Neil Kinnock would have beaten John Major in 1992 and there wouldn't be elections right now because PM Ed Milliband would have no need to call for any. So yeah, they make mistakes in both directions- and, in fact, historically, pollsters have tended to overestimate Labour, not the opposite.

All those close seats? Just look at the recent byelections! Labour somehow managed to lose a seat to the Government! That literally never happens! As in, last time something like that happened was like a century ago. If polls are half-right, Labour stands to lose scores of marginal seats- and not-so-marginal ones. Obviously May isn't going to call for snap elections to lose- she is doing it because she believes, based on the publicly available data, that she can sink Labour for a generation.

I admire your ardent belief in Labour, but the truth is, their message on Brexit is a mess. While May has branded herself as "Ms Brexit" and the Lib-Dems want to recall the Art. 50 notification and stop the process, Corbyn wants... a "Brexits that works for everyone". Or maybe that was the Tory slogan, I don't know, because their branding is horrible. Hardcore remainers will feel betrayed and brexiteers will rightly believe he's not being forceful enough about it. Labour is nowhere in this issue.

And, in case you are wondering, I'm a member of the Spanish Labour Party (PSOE), and I voted for the Corbyn-esque Podemos in our last elections, so there is nothing I'd hate mroe than see a Tory government as radical as May's. But Labour is going to commit suicide if they vote for holding the elections.

I;m not going to justify most of that hyperbole with direct replies.

The polling in the 1980s/1990s wasn't the same as the polling companies now. "Scientific" is a pretty bollocks statement and incredibly disingenuous when all the pollsters do is get a sample of 1000-2000 voting age people and ask them a question. How that can be considered anymore solid than a live "clicker" that samples far more people than a niche collection hand picked by the polling companies is beyond me. Although excellent job in just outright proving that the polls are far from flawless by bringing up Kinnock and Milliband.

I didn't say the Tories owned the media. I said the owners of these outlets are Tory Donors. That's a wildly different thing. Murdoch would back any party that would allow him to dodge tax in Britain and push his agenda, it just so happens the Tories are the ones awful enough to do it.

Corbyn has been clear on Brexit from day one. He campaigned to remain, that campaign lost. He then said he would respect the democratic process and that Labour would fight for a Brexit that protected European rights that effect so many Brits. He has been clear and concise throughout.

https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=a...4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#q=corbyn+on+brexit

Here, there's plenty of sources and interviews there detailing what he is proposing.

May however has failed to negotiate anything. The Europeans are running rings around her idiotic statements that she knows will not be accepted.

Also "This Morning" is a daily news Breakfast show on the center-right ITV. It's viewership as a network is second only to the BBC. So let's not grabass around with claims about the laughable Daily Express.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/YouGov

That might be an interesting read for you. YouGov wasn;t around until 2000, and it's owned and operated by an ex Tory candidate. Huh, fancy that?

pkmin3033 · Apr 19, 2017

Wonder how long it'll be before Theresa May caves and decides she will be a part of the TV debate ITV is reportedly going to be hosting.

Hands · Apr 19, 2017

Meyneth said:
Wonder how long it'll be before Theresa May caves and decides she will be a part of the TV debate ITV is reportedly going to be hosting.

She routinely fails to answer questions at PMQs, can you imagine how bad she will fare when moderators and the public are involved and she doesn't have her jeering mates behind her?

pkmin3033 · Apr 19, 2017

Hands said:
She routinely fails to answer questions at PMQs, can you imagine how bad she will fare when moderators and the public are involved and she doesn't have her jeering mates behind her?

If her performance at PMQs are any indicator, I imagine it would definitely be worth watching.

I don't agree with Nicola Sturgeon about much - anything at all in fact - but I think she hit the nail on the head when she said this election might be a huge miscalculation for May. She's completely contradicted herself by calling for it and damaging what little credibility she had, and if she isn't even going to meet her opposition at public debates...well, it doesn't say much about her, really. It doesn't inspire much confidence if she can't stick to her guns and doesn't have the courage to meet her critics head-on.

And she can deny it all she likes, but this is so obviously looking for a blank cheque for Brexit from the public that it's practically a farce to pretend it isn't. This is not a "national interest" thing. I think there is about as much desire for a general election now as there is for a second Scottish referendum...and how ironic that is, given May's infamous "now is not the time" quote in response to that.

I highly doubt any of this will be enough to change anything - she'll probably gain and lose a little support, but she'll still have an overwhelming majority at the end of it, and we'll be back to where we started: waiting for her to cut the United Kingdom up into bloody pieces as she strangles her hold on England and Wales. I can't imagine Brexit being handled any better under Labour - or at least not Corbyn's Labour - but that doesn't change the fact that May is really making a mess of things.

Nah · Apr 19, 2017

I'm not sure i understand, why does May (and apparently some others), want a general now instead of waiting for the next one in 2020?

Ivysaur · Apr 19, 2017

Nah said:
I'm not sure i understand, why does May (and apparently some others), want a general now instead of waiting for the next one in 2020?

May, because polls say that, by holding an election now, she'll win in a landslide and increase her majority to 100+ seats, essentially making the opposition irrelevant and filling her benches with moderate, loyal fellow tories that will free her from the more radical conservatives in her party (see: US Freedom Caucus). As a bonus, that will give her an actual mandate -she never ran for anything, but inherited the premiership from Cameron- and will detach the next election from the start of actual Brexit in 2020, giving her two years of "cooldown" in case it all goes horribly wrong at first.

Corbyn, like Hands, believes all polls are wrong and the recent by-elections are wrong too and that he actually has a chance of winning.

The Lib Dems, with 9 seats or so, want to be able to claw back a couple dozen Remain-heavy seats from the collapsing Labour -they believe the polls too- and possibily from the Tories too (they recently did in a by-election) to become a serious opposition party again.

The Scottish Nationalists, meanwhile, just want another chance to win another landslide in Scotland just to scream "Independence referendum again!".

Hands · Apr 20, 2017

Ivysaur said:
May, because polls say that, by holding an election now, she'll win in a landslide and increase her majority to 100+ seats, essentially making the opposition irrelevant and filling her benches with moderate, loyal fellow tories that will free her from the more radical conservatives in her party (see: US Freedom Caucus). As a bonus, that will give her an actual mandate -she never ran for anything, but inherited the premiership from Cameron- and will detach the next election from the start of actual Brexit in 2020, giving her two years of "cooldown" in case it all goes horribly wrong at first.

Corbyn, like Hands, believes all polls are wrong and the recent by-elections are wrong too and that he actually has a chance of winning.

The Lib Dems, with 9 seats or so, want to be able to claw back a couple dozen Remain-heavy seats from the collapsing Labour -they believe the polls too- and possibily from the Tories too (they recently did in a by-election) to become a serious opposition party again.

The Scottish Nationalists, meanwhile, just want another chance to win another landslide in Scotland just to scream "Independence referendum again!".

https://www.channel4.com/news/exclu...er-30-people-including-tory-mps-over-expenses

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...aign-result-overturn-battle-bus-a7689801.html

yeaaahhh i cant imagine it has anything to do with this, her collapsing Brexit deal or her massive failings as PM.

May calls UK snap election

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