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Serious 2020 Democratic Primaries

VisionofMilotic

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  • There is an enormous field of candidates out there, and several I like, gotta say!

    I wanted to share a comprehensive list with PC of everyone who has thus far announced their candidacy for 2020. There are so many dems out there that you practically need a map to find them all :)

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/qz.com...-2020-democratic-presidential-candidates/amp/

    Are you supporting or considering any of these candidates? Please share with us why. Also is there somebody you would like to see run who is not currently running or announced?

    Even if you are not eligible to vote, don't leave! You are still welcome to answer, just say who you would support if you could.

    If you are interested in following the race then check back and view the guide in the link sometimes. It gets updates for new candidates when they enter. I will note that former Alaskan senator Mike Gravel's name is absent from the list, and he recently has announced a campaign so they should include him. His goal is to be in the debates, but he is a candidate neverthelessess.
     

    Nah

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    I haven't really given much thought yet as to which one I'll give my vote to yet, but the start of the primaries are nearly a year away.

    Though by the time the primaries get to NJ I might not have much in the way of choices anyway
     
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  • So far I like Pete Buttigieg, my only problem with him seems to be his one sided feud with Vice President Pence reeks of attention seeking but overall he seems like a well rounded moderate.
     
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  • I'm still in the Bernie mindset of 2016.

    That being said, I'm also happy to see so many hopefuls. I actually haven't contributed yet to Bernie's campaign only because I want to see the election cycle progress a little more before fully committing.
     
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  • There are too many right now for me to have a serious opinion on any of the candidates thus far. I can say 100% I don't want Bernie or Biden tho.
     
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    VisionofMilotic

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  • The DNC requires that democratic candidates meet 1 of 2 criteria in order to qualify for the first debate in June.

    *You must poll at least 1% in 3 seperate polls between January 1 and mid-May.

    Or

    *Receive campaign contributions from at least 65,000 individual donors in order to qualify for the first debate in June.

    If you are interested in someone who is in the race, but does not yet qualify for the debate stage then you may want to consider tossing them a buck. If you don't already have name recognition then there is no way for your campaign to grow without the debate to give you wider exposure. Keep that in mind in case one of the newer kids on the block catches your eye.

    I spoiler tagged a list of candidates who currently qualify


    I voted for Bernie in the 2016 primary. I was thinking about him for 2020 among other candidates. He may have just pulled ahead in my book by leading the Yemen war powers resolution.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=806eoo1k5jE

    I am anti-imperialist in my foreign policy. Bernie is not actually as far left as I would go, but he's better than the average democrat. I don't forsee anyone else appearing from the progressive wing in 2020 who is equipped to serve as president that would be any more anti-interventionalist, and also offer Bernie's comprehensive economic reform and environmental platform. The later is especially important to me because of the recent IPCC report from the UN. I want someone who is ready to put in over time to reverse the anti-environmental policies of the Trump administration.
     
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  • There are too many right now for me to have a serious opinion on any of the candidates thus far. I can say 100% I don't want Bernie or Biden tho.

    It might be a bit early, but after watching his official campaign announcement (thanks for the link, Angie!!), I like Buttigieg quite a bit. I'll back whatever Democratic candidate secures the nomination, but right now he's probably got my vote if he makes it to the primaries. I'm keeping an eye out on the others, though.
     

    VisionofMilotic

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  • Some hopeful news if you are a Bernie Sanders supporter. This Emerson poll placed him ahead of all of the possible contenders for the democratic primary this April.
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campai...n-for-dem-nomination-by-5-points-buttigieg-in

    The findings of this poll are noteworthy because it shows Bernie not just ahead of the democrats currently in the race as we have seen in previous polls, but also leading by 5 pts even in the hypothetical matchup against Joe Biden.

    The last few weeks have overall been kind to Bernie. He raised over 18 million dollars in his first quarter coming from small donors, with a donation size averaging 20 dollars. He also is the most popular candidate for Latino voters at present, so all very positive news.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fo...ratic-presidential-candidates-fundraising.amp

    https://theintercept.com/2019/04/06/bernie-sanders-latino-hispanic-voters/
     

    Noblejanobii

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  • I haven't decided which primary I want to vote in yet (since in my state you don't have to register to a party), but given there hasn't been a ton of movement on the Republican side of things in terms of other nominees (which is not a-typical for the party that has the incumbency) except for Bill Weld (who is a great guy but he's not a strong enough contender to beat Trump for the nomination), I'll probably vote in the Democratic primary. I need to look over the candidates more, so I appreciate the resource as a good starting point.

    Just looking over the list and based on my experiences alone, having met Elizabeth Warren and Cory Booker in DC, I'd say they'd be someone I'd consider putting my support behind. Cory Booker especially since he was very popular in one of the offices I worked in during my time in DC, and that office was Republican. He was charismatic enough to draw their support so I think he'd be a good candidate. But this is without knowing any of his policies. I'd need to look further before I said for sure.
     
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    VisionofMilotic

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  • Cool that you got to meet both Cory Booker and Elizabeth Warren. I'd be interested to know what it was like to meet Warren. I also am glad to hear that you witnessed Booker having a broad appeal on folks.

    What I would say about Booker is that as you have probably noticed he has a colorful personality, great speaking voice, and brings the voice of civility to the conversation.

    There are aspects also of his policy that might be interesting to crossover voters like supporting charter schools. This more often in the dialogue with republicans I think than democrats I would say. Yet there are still some policies in his platform that can appeal to the progressive end of the spectrum like the baby bonds I think.
     
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    tigertron

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  • I'm not a US citizen nor do I know much about US politics, but I think Bernie is probably one of the best US politicians out there. So he'd have my vote simply for standing on a socialist platform even if it's not as far left as I would like.

    The only problem with Bernie that I can see is that many Democrats wouldn't support him and I doubt any Republican would either. So as a president he would probably be pretty restricted in what he could achieve.
     
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    Noblejanobii

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  • Cool that you got to meet both Cory Booker and Elizabeth Warren. I'd be interested to know what it was like to meet Warren. I also am glad to hear that you witnessed Booker having a broad appeal on folks.

    What I would say about Booker is that as you have probably noticed he has a colorful personality, great speaking voice, and brings the voice of civility to the conversation.

    There are aspects also of his policy that might be interesting to crossover voters like supporting charter schools. This more often in the dialogue with republicans I think than democrats I would say. Yet there are still some policies in his platform that can appeal to the progressive end of the spectrum like the baby bonds I think.

    Warren was a very brief encounter, I regret not being able to talk with her more. I met her during the ICE protests they were having in the Senate buildings back in July. She came out of her office to show her support to the protestors and I ran into her then. She was very courteous and said she was glad people my age were taking an interest in politics and hoped we'd support her in future endeavors, which looking back was probably a subtle way to ask for our support in a presidential candidacy run. So as far as first impressions go, she's a good one.

    I also saw Kirsten Gillibrand at the same event but I didn't get to speak with her. She hugged one of the protestors if I remember correctly. From what I've heard she's very nice, but that's just stuff through the grapevine and not my own opinion since I never got to actually meet her.

    Yeah I think Booker would have a good chance of appealing to some Republicans since he seemed to be friends with several Republican senators and appealed to the staff in these offices very well. Never heard a bad word about him. Some dissent for his policies, but as my boss put it "I may disagree with his politics, but his charisma will win anyone over to his side."

    As for Bernie, I personally find him far to extreme for me. While I respect that he's one of the only politicians in DC that actually pay their interns, since I tend to be a bit more fiscally conservative, he's just too extreme for me to be able to support. I'd like free college as much as the next student, but the economics behind that in the US' current economic system would make that very difficult and could cause some major back end and front end problems if they're not careful

    All in all it'll really be interesting to watch. Looking at the Republican side of things, so far there's only two candidates, Trump (eth) and Bill Weld. And while Bill Weld is a very good guy (he was the VP candidate on Gary Johnson's ticket back in 2016), he hasn't been involved in politics recently enough to have a strong chance at the nomination. If anything we can only hope his entry will cause a party split.
     
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  • Some interesting tidbits on whether prisoners should be able to vote based on a Poll via YouGov:

    Spoiler:


    To honest, I'm not 100% sure where I lean. I can see the argument that all prisoners are a part of society regardless, and there's the perspective that our justice system is fairly racist so you're talking about nonviolent offenders in prison being stripped unfairly of their right to vote.

    But on the other hand I don't know what to make heads or tails of the whole "well pedophiles and murderers get a right to vote too and i dont like that" argument as well.

    I will say though, as much as I like Buttigieg's general charisma, I feel like at some point he's going to plataeu because he may struggle with gaining the trust and vote of non-white voters.
     

    VisionofMilotic

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  • Warren was a very brief encounter, I regret not being able to talk with her more. I met her during the ICE protests they were having in the Senate buildings back in July. She came out of her office to show her support to the protestors and I ran into her then. She was very courteous and said she was glad people my age were taking an interest in politics and hoped we'd support her in future endeavors, which looking back was probably a subtle way to ask for our support in a presidential candidacy run. So as far as first impressions go, she's a good one.

    I also saw Kirsten Gillibrand at the same event but I didn't get to speak with her. She hugged one of the protestors if I remember correctly. From what I've heard she's very nice, but that's just stuff through the grapevine and not my own opinion since I never got to actually meet her.

    Yeah I think Booker would have a good chance of appealing to some Republicans since he seemed to be friends with several Republican senators and appealed to the staff in these offices very well. Never heard a bad word about him. Some dissent for his policies, but as my boss put it "I may disagree with his politics, but his charisma will win anyone over to his side."

    As for Bernie, I personally find him far to extreme for me. While I respect that he's one of the only politicians in DC that actually pay their interns, since I tend to be a bit more fiscally conservative, he's just too extreme for me to be able to support. I'd like free college as much as the next student, but the economics behind that in the US' current economic system would make that very difficult and could cause some major back end and front end problems if they're not careful

    All in all it'll really be interesting to watch. Looking at the Republican side of things, so far there's only two candidates, Trump (eth) and Bill Weld. And while Bill Weld is a very good guy (he was the VP candidate on Gary Johnson's ticket back in 2016), he hasn't been involved in politics recently enough to have a strong chance at the nomination. If anything we can only hope his entry will cause a party split.


    Sounds like it was a very memorable, exciting and uplifting experience. I'd have liked to have been there. I definitely think we can do better on paving a path to citizenship in this country.

    Now, because of Gillibrand's record as a corporate lawyer defending the tobacco industry, she would not be my first choice for 2020. I lost both of my grandparents to cancer caused by smoking, so I am not without some prejudice here.

    Nevertheless, I am glad to hear that every candidate was approachable and engaging in person because that helps encourage people to participate in the process.

    While I tend to look for democrats from the progressive wing of the party, I can respect and understand your concerns as a fiscal-conservative and I'll definitely keep in mind that you are looking for a candidate who is not too extreme left or right.

    I was wondering if you were familiar with Hawaiian democrat congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, and if so, what you thought of her?

    Some of the things about her that strike me most is that she grew up in a conservative household, and is a veteran.

    Her foreign policy I would describe as the most "libertarian" of the democrats. I thought I would point that out since we were discussing Bill Weld and Gary Johnson. I know that Ron Paul is very impressed by her positions as a candidate for ending the wars we are in, decreasing military spending and stopping the sale of arms overseas and intervention. In this sense she is a step back to basics.

    Tulsi is ultimately a democrat with liberal economic positions like raising the mininum wage, medicare, creating jobs and infrastructure. So she is not what I would call a fiscal conservative. However, when compared with other candidates in the 2020 democratic primary her message is not so exclusive to economic issues that she couldn't perhaps pick up a fiscally-conservative voter nevertheless, at least as I see her.

    Most of the 2020 democrats are known for one signature economic reform or another, Andrew Yang advocates UBI, Kamala Harris has the Lift Act, Elizabeth Warren's got the Housing and Economic Mobility Act, Cory Booker's calling card is the Baby Bonds, for Julian's Castro its Reparations, Wayne Messam is for student debt cancellation, Bernie has Tution-Free College. However, what Tulsi has chosen to emphasize as her campaign message is the promotion of peace, which is a less controversial issue I think to American voters in today's climate, and an area even where conservatives and progressive sometimes join forces.

    Also when Gabbard proposes something progressive, I think she is very clear and meticulous in explaining the policy and how it might be achieved. For instance she had concerns about the Green New Deal and declded not to co-sponsor it with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, arguing that it was too vague. Yet rather than use this as a disingenuous arguement to justify not pursing environmental protection policies, as say a Joe Manchin would, Tulsi offers her own alternative legislation for clean, renewable energy in the OFF act. So I think she is someone who can be a responsible voice, without actually selling out her values.
     
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  • Personally, the more I hear about Gabbard, the less enthusiastic I feel about her.

    Case in point, this article here goes into detail about how Gabbard went from shining star of the Democratic Party to pretty much irrelevant due to some deeply controversial decisions on her part.

    She also breaks with the rest of the Democratic candidates calling for Trump's own impeachment. Regardless of how one personally feels about whether or not Trump should be impeached based on what's found in the Mueller report, this kind of move is certainly going to isolate her further from the progressive base who have been dying to oust Trump from office since day one.

    Honestly, I'm not really entirely sure who Gabbard appeals to, or who her constituency even consists of. She seems like the type of candidate that tries to have a progressive platform, but shoots herself in the foot with the progressive base. I personally don't see... anything about her that appeals to the centre-left pretty much whatsoever, since that pool of Democrats is split between Biden/Beto/Buttigieg.

    If she's trying to cozy up with Bernie's voters, she has a long way to go.
     
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    Noblejanobii

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  • Hm... Gabbard I don't know a ton about but I've heard things through the grapevine that weren't very flattering. I think the biggest strike against her is the fact that she met with the Dictator Bashar al-Assad. Now she claims it wasn't her intention to meet with him, she just seized the opportunity as it presented itself, which I can respect because I can't say I wouldn't do the same in similar circumstances. The problem here is she didn't inform the Democrat party that she was going to do this and claims all the Syrians like Assad when it was his regime that orchestrated the tour. It reminds me a lot of the "Under the Sun" documentary from North Korea. The events are likely scripted or set up to make people believe that Assad actually is popular in Syria when in reality, the sheer amount of refugees fleeing the country should be a solid indication otherwise. Now she may have retracted her comments, I haven't seen anything but this happened so long ago it could just be buried. But it concerns me that something like this could occur.

    That being said I can always get behind a message for peace, and if what she brings to table outweighs what I've heard about her, then I'm willing to back her. But it really just depends on if I believe I can trust them and right now Gabbard does not seem very trustworthy.
     

    VisionofMilotic

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  • Indeed the mainstream press is brutal, yet you bring up a very good point about the meeting with Assad. I would like talk more about that. I'd love to also share more about her foreign policy record as I do think she has a solid history here if you are pro-peace. I am really torn between Bernie, Elizabeth Warren and Tulsi Gabbard at the moment, each for different reasons, but I think just on the subject of peace alone Gabbard is the most consistent in the race.

    Any candidate can offer platitudes, so your skepticism is understandable. For me the litmus test is does a politician's record match the things they are talking about? For instance Obama promised he would close Gauntanamo Bay as president, but he didn't. Trump said he was against the war in Iraq when he was running for president, then the Howard Stern audio surfaced showing that he did think we should go into Iraq. Hillary Clinton said she regretted going to War in Iraq, and wouldn't gave gone had she known the intelligence was false. However, her private emails revealed that she in fact was aware of the darker purposes of the war, and saw it as a business opportunity for oil corporations, and that was why she voted as she did.

    In the case of Tulsi Gabbard I have not uncovered these sorts of inconsistencies between her words and the legislation she supported in regards to peaceful intentions in the 15 years she's been in congress. If you do happen to see a flip-flop like that on foreign policy let me know, because I need to know that.

    One of the good things I think she did was shine attention on the fact that the United States government has funded and armed various groups in Qatar, Saudia Arabia and Turkey to overthrow the Syrian Government. This policy of our government is troubling not just because of the desire to not have military confrontation, but because the opposition groups may or may not have ties to terrorist organizations such as Al-Qaeda and Isis or Hamas.

    https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_58cafc26e4b00705db4da8aa/amp

    https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/trump-warms-qatar-lawmakers-still-see-terrorist-ties

    https://www.counterextremism.com/countries/turkey

    Tulsi Gabbard introduced the Stop Arming Terrorist bill to the House barring us from potentially selling weapons to groups like Isis. It should be a common sense position, and yet she stood virtually alone in this fight, and this is one of many indicators to me that she is serious about not taking us into more needlesss conflict. Here she explains what this bill would have done on NPR.

    https://www.npr.org/2016/12/10/5050...-introduces-bill-to-halt-u-s-arms-supplies-to

    Gabbard has co-sponsored nearly 350 pieces of legislation to congress, and a great deal of these measures are anti-war. Here is a log of the bills.
    https://projects.propublica.org/represent/members/G000571/bills-cosponsored/115

    She supported the War Powers resolution which would restrict a president's nearly unbridled authority to engage the country in armed conflict without the approval of congress, and returned power to back to the congress as it was in in 1973. This also would have stopped the U.S from funding Saudi Arabia from comitting genocide against Yemen in the current war.

    https://www.antiwar.com/blog/2018/0...ort-for-saudi-arabias-genocidal-war-in-yemen/

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.us...upport-for-saudi-led-war-in-yemen?context=amp

    Now with regards to Syria I would like to clarify that Gabbard's trip was not organized by the Assad regime. Adam Kinzinger, who is against withdrawing in Syria and is very aggressive in this area of foreign policy, is framing a somewhat false narrative by characterizing this as an Assad-led tour, which indeed would reveal nothing about the plight of people in Syria.

    AACCESS is not affiliated with Assad. It is a US-based organization in Ohio, its website says its offers translation services, shelter for refuges, counsels immigrants on their legal rights, and.

    There is a board member of the Arab American Community Center, a medical adviser, named Bassam Khawam that helped the delegation of lawmakers get there, who has been reported in news outlets as a member of a radical political party called SSNP. He says he has never been a member of this party at all.

    Whether he is or not however, what is important to bear in mind still is that this is ultimately a citizen, he does not hold a position in the Syrian government. Neither Assad's government or the political party SSNP orchestrated Gabbard's trip or meetings with civilians and refugees.

    https://amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/514763/

    Something else that is reported less frequently is that Gabbard's spent time in various cities in the middle east from Aleppo to Beirut during her travels, and met with multiple diplomats and important people including the President of Lebanon, our own US Ambassador Elizabeth Richards, humanitarian workers, archbishops. I think Gabbard's visit in full context sounds much more reasonable than the headline grabber of a meeting with Assad. It is also worth noting that even meeting with Assad is something that the speaker of the house Pelosi did. Many lawmakers have met with leaders of hostile countries in the hope of learning more about the situation, and even avoiding confrontation.
    https://www.lawfareblog.com/logan-act-and-its-limits

    What constitutes a violation of the Logan Act is somewhat vague. It simply reads that it cannot be without the authority of the United States. That she needed the approval of her political party is not encoded the law, it just can't be "without the authority of the United States."

    She could have privately sought approval from the pentagon for instance and that alone can be interpreted as sufficient. Below is the dry legal language.

    Spoiler:


    The last thing I would also like to make clear is that Kinzinger is using more hyperbole when he said that Gabbard declared everyone she met to be happy under Assad's government. Gabbard is not suggesting this.

    This was the full op-ed that Tulsi Gabbard wrote in her local newspaper about her experience in Syria, in which she indeed acknowledges hearing opposition to Assad from the people of Syria, the very opposite of what was claimed she said.

    https://medium.com/@TulsiGabbard/the-syrian-people-desperately-want-peace-e308f1777a34

    Now what she has indeed said is that the Syrian people are in afraid of the rebel groups that we fund as well as Assad, which is why she calls for the United States not to arm rebels that might end up also hurting the people, and advocates for a de-escalation. Saying this alone is enought to be conflated with supporting Assad.

    It is possible to disagree with a government, but not necessarily be in favor of military intervention in the country. I think she has a nuanced foreign policy that often gets lost in translation.

    This RealClearPolitics link uses longer statements by Gabbard she made when she visited the show The View, and I think she does a good job clarifying what her views are. Give a listen if you'd like to know more. Also feel free to pm too if you want to talk more!

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/v...when_i_hear_your_name_i_think_assad_apologist
     

    Noblejanobii

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  • Hm yes her peace points do seem to be very strong, especially since, as I said before, I can't condemn her for meeting with Assad since given the opportunity I'd likely do the same, but I'll need to look at all her policies before I make my decision. Due to this being the heat of finals season at my school, I simply haven't had the time to do that yet. I assure you, I usually do very thorough research prior to casting final judgement on a candidate. I appreciate the help though, but just her policy on peace isn't going to be enough to sell me on her. I'll be doing my own research on all the candidates over the course of the summer, while also keeping an eye on the Republican side of things to see if a strong candidate does rise to oppose Trump there.

    The main make or break point I think for me when it comes to these candidates will be their economics. I know I can trust them to keep in mind human rights, since that's in the very nature of most democrats, but ultimately I just need to do my own research when I actually have the time to and I'm not in the middle of finals.
     
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  • So, taking a look at this 538 article, we can see a few things:

    • Sanders isn't really that strong of a spot; in fact he's lost ground in the polls while Biden gained.
    • Warren and Buttigieg kind of gained ground, but Buttigieg mostly stayed the same or lost a point.
    To be honest, regardless of one's personal feelings towards Sanders, I feel like going from the numbers alone, he doesn't seem like that strong of a candidate. I don't know specifically the causes of this or what people find in Biden that they don't really see in Sanders. Maybe most democrats are more moderates than progressives and prefer Biden as a first choice and Sanders mostly as a second, who knows.

    In fact, Qunnipiac University actually has Sanders behind Warren. This is a pretty big deal because this is strongly implying that Sanders' appeal is going to plateau at some point and with his name recognition, I'm not sure if he has room to gain, anymore.

    At any rate, it's worth keeping an eye on whether Biden's "bounce" will fade as more and more people find out about him (he also has really high name recognition, which limits his ceiling here), and whether his campaign will continue to be slammed by scandals and the like.

    Warren's gain is actually semi-surprising for me. I honestly wish she wouldn't have gotten into the whole DNA bullshit because if it wasn't for that I think she would've been in a clear third place position right now instead of Buttigieg. Perhaps people's lukewarm feelings towards her will fade over time as she dishes out policy idea after policy idea, but it's very clear that Warren has quite the mountain to climb.

    These are still very early days, but even early primary polls can be pretty telling of who will win early on. For now, it seems like the one thing that will move the needle in any sort of direction barring some scandal cropping out of nowhere or a gaff is the debate stage.
     
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