Always love scum-on-scum killings. Anyway...
Okay, on the one hand, I don't want to needlessly lynch somebody. On the other hand, I don't want to give the cult a chance to multiply. I'm worried that today and tomorrow might be our last shot to nail the cult leader before the cult starts piling up enough members to really start influencing the voting.
So for today, I'm going to assume that the Loudmouth was unvisited. Given the time constraints and assuming 4 deaths over the next 2 nights, that would bring us down to 11 players, which would give the cult 4 members, assuming no more are killed off. Maybe 1-2 crossfire deaths in that time will still leave town in a (barely) favorable position, so I guess we technically have the next 3 days to take out the Cult Leader, but if we don't find them after 2 our situation might become untenable.
Bleh. My calculations are a little off I think. I think we do have 3 days to safely find the Cult Leader before our position become untenable, but I think we have to find them my the 3rd day.
tl;dr if Loudmouth is quiet next 2 nights, Home is Cult Leader.
I'll commentate more later.