Greenlit: "Hax" and Luck in Pokemon

ddrox13

ddrox13

Anti-Nonsense
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    Looking to do something a bit more general than Pokemon Analyisi (which is the plural of analysis until further notice). Sooooo...

    Luck in Pokemon exists and people will complain about it until the end of time. So I wanted to look at Pokemon's RNG, what it affects, exploits, and how to tip it in your favor in battle. This would look at (in no set order):

    Damage Calculation (Minmax)
    Secondary effects, including balancing them with additional power ( i.e. Scald vs Surf vs Hydro Pump)
    Serene BS (and common abusers)
    Breeding exploits in past games ???????
    Common flip-based TCG cards???????
    Critical Hits
    The Swagger ban (and Status as a whole)
    The Evasion Clause
    How all of the above aged (looking at you, RBY)
    OHKO moves
    Focus Miss (and accuracy as a whole)
    Moody
    The risks and rewards of Double Protecting
    And any more I think of later

    This will be a peice with minimal opinion or bias, and will be mostly statistical analysis stuff. The non-battle related stuff could be cut. I could also just focus on one or two of those points.
     
    This sounds like an interesting idea and could potentially be a really good read. I'm worried though, just by looking at your list, that you might be trying to cram too much information into one article.

    I think it might be better if you seperate it out into a mini-series and do one focusing on battling and one on things like breeding.
     
    I do agree with gimmepie that that is a lot of things, so for sure try to cut down. You could even split battling rng stuff into multiple articles given all the cases rng comes up. E.g. you could lump all ability-related RNG things into one article if there is enough.

    The general idea itself is great - I for one would be interested in reading about such stats.

    TBH I'd like to write one of these as well - e.g. one entirely about the chances of catching shiny Pokemon (what rates were in different games, exploring some events like 'how many encounters before odds are in favour of having seen a shiny Pokemon', 'chances of two shiny Pokemon in a single horde', etc). Maybe that could be combined with finding pokerus, and perfect IVs, and then a combination of those.
     
    gimmepie said:
    This sounds like an interesting idea and could potentially be a really good read. I'm worried though, just by looking at your list, that you might be trying to cram too much information into one article.

    I think it might be better if you seperate it out into a mini-series and do one focusing on battling and one on things like breeding.
    Click to expand...

    That makes more sense lol. I think I might move some other stuff to another article as well, and focus on attacks and weighing their accuracy and secondary affects (see aforementioned Scald/Surf/HPump decision)

    EDIT: I think I'll do 3, dividing them in this way:Battle, Breeding and Shinies, and (possibly) TCG. Anyone else can steal either of the last two as well, I want battle tho
    I decided that the above idea might get a bit too technical and stuff.

    On the topic of the battles specifically, the sections would probably be Crits, Misses, Evasion, status, secondary effects (order TBD). Each would have a bit of mechanical stuff, a little history, and a set or two to abuse it coughHaxRachicough (evasion may be exempt from the last one).
     
    Last edited:
    ddrox13 said:
    That makes more sense lol. I think I might move some other stuff to another article as well, and focus on attacks and weighing their accuracy and secondary affects (see aforementioned Scald/Surf/HPump decision)

    EDIT: I think I'll do 3, dividing them in this way:Battle, Breeding and Shinies, and (possibly) TCG. Anyone else can steal either of the last two as well, I want battle tho
    I decided that the above idea might get a bit too technical and stuff.

    On the topic of the battles specifically, the sections would probably be Crits, Misses, Evasion, status, secondary effects (order TBD). Each would have a bit of mechanical stuff, a little history, and a set or two to abuse it coughHaxRachicough (evasion may be exempt from the last one).
    Click to expand...
    I like the idea of comparing the likes of say Scald/Surf/HPump.

    I'm going to go ahead and claim Breeding and Shinies btw. Not something I may necessarily work on asap (couple other articles first), but thinking aloud, I would go with:
    - Intro
    - Shiny rates (basic overview, how to improve rates, etc)
    - Specific what-ifs (chances of e.g. 2+ shiny pokes in a horde, etc)
    - Pokerus chances
    - Encountering a perfect IV poke.
    - Breeding stats - chances of breeding a perfect poke, etc
    - ???
     
    Archy said:
    My two cents here, I think there are some things that you should consider on a battling situation. Specially around luck based situations. Knowing how they work it's cool, but it's kinda usless if you don't have a clear example of a ****ty/lucky situation.

    Another thing that you should keep in mind are risk/reward situations. Not just with Protect, which is more risky than anything else. And won't achive anything really relevant outside scouting once, or locking a Pokemon into a move that can be abused. In a few words, try to explain that risk/reward is present on almost every single turn, unless a battle is already decided. Try to give examples of this situations, where risk is bigger than reward and viceversa. It could be a lot more helpfull that way.

    It's not a bad idea, but it's just a bit... I think it could be more usefull this way.
    Click to expand...

    Yeah, it will be a lot of specific battle situations. Almost all the luck stuff is risk/reward in one way or another, from failing an important double-protect to choosing to run Focus Blast. I'll remember this for the article, Thanks Archy!
     
    I think it's good to have a series of articles getting into the actual numbers of things in Pokémon. With the shiny Pokémon example, everyone knows what the chances are of finding one, but not actually what the chances are of finding TWO shinies in one horde or anything like that. So to get into the specifics and how to improve the RNG can get interesting.

    It's the same thing with battling. Everyone always says that battle victories are "luck-based" but a lot of it is what the player chooses to do and how it compares to what the other player chooses to do. Having specific battling examples of this would definitely show the numbers behind the entire system.

    This will be an interesting series of articles to read!
     
    Approved, btw. ddrox - do you want to draft in the workshop subsection like before, or given you have a couple articles draft it in the wordpress side? Latter may quicken up the editing process and we can alter the formatting for you as well as you write it. If you prefer the former that's fine too; just say so and I'll copy a post into the subsection.
     
    ddrox13 said:
    https://wp.me/p6zvVr-kN

    First draft of most of the sections, last is incomplete and 2 more to write
    Click to expand...
    Cool, good start. I'll give it proper look later. Anyone else is free to edit whenever, but if it's more than minor typos then let ddrox know of said changes, or propose them in the page itself (use say red text?)

    I did a couple really minor edits, mostly presentation wise. Please put a line of spacing between paragraphs in wordpress (like this post/your previous article drafts), via pressing enter (not shift + enter).
     
    ddrox13 said:
    .
    Click to expand...
    Did a proofread of the rest of the article, ddrox. I probably want someone else with experience with battling to check it as well. I've meanwhile also added in the tags/cover image/excerpt for you.

    Preview link (only viewable by those logged in/with sufficient permissions): https://daily.pokecommunity.com/?p=1289&preview=true
     
    bobandbill said:
    Did a proofread of the rest of the article, ddrox. I probably want someone else with experience with battling to check it as well. I've meanwhile also added in the tags/cover image/excerpt for you.

    Preview link (only viewable by those logged in/with sufficient permissions): https://daily.pokecommunity.com/?p=1289&preview=true
    Click to expand...

    And I followed up, removing all the blue and red stuff. Also changed the meta description to match the fact that I used American English in the article (I used "color", the description you left used "favour" rather than "favor")
     
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